Butler vs. Villanova Odds
| Butler Odds | +9.5 |
| Villanova Odds | -9.5 |
| Over/Under | 129.5 |
| Date | Tuesday, Feb. 14 |
| Time | 8 p.m. ET |
| How to Watch | CBS Sports Network |
| Odds via FanDuel as of Tuesday at 12 p.m. ET. | |
Action Network has developed a sound betting algorithm that’s gleaned data since 2005.
The algorithm targets very specific parameters and only lights up for about 50 college basketball games per year. One of them includes Butler vs. Villanova on Tuesday night.
The proprietary algorithm has gone 493-376-22 (57% win rate) since Mario’s “Let Me Love You” topped the charts, returning an annual 11% on investment during that timeframe.
Since 2005, if you had wagered $500 on the roughly 50 college basketball games per season that have fit this algorithm, you’d be up more than $45,000.
We don’t recommend using this betting algorithm as an alternative to investing — variance is a much sturdier constraint in sports gambling compared to the financial markets — but similar principles apply in regard to gains over a long time horizon.
Butler vs. Villanova College Basketball Odds, Prediction
This betting algorithm has a list of parameters it considers when targeting a specific game and line. In general, it fades the public during conference games.
The public tends to overvalue popular conference opponents — while wagering on them heavily — and sportsbooks are forced to price lines accordingly.
“Fade the public” indicates empirically that fewer than 25% of bettors are riding with the team that you’d be betting on. Conversely, 75% or more of the public is enamored with the team you’d fade.
In addition, the game in question must have a lower total (between 128 and 146.5) in order to temper variance.
Lastly, the conference game must occur in the Big 12, SEC, Pac-12, ACC, Big Ten or Big East. So, only big-time conferences work for this ATS system.
All those parameters fit Villanova’s point spread tonight as heavy home favorites. Action Network’s proprietary tracking data reports that only 22% of wagers from all major American sportsbooks are on the Creighton to cover.
The best price on the market is with FanDuel at -9.5 (-110).
A ridiculous 78% of the public is taking the points with Butler. The total also fits the aforementioned parameters.
Keep in mind that this historically profitable algorithm applies to about 50 college basketball games per year. While Tuesday night might be an opportunity to cash in, this is a long-term investment.
In order to maximize your 11% return on investment, make sure to follow through whenever this algorithm provides picks for the rest of the season.
Pick: Villanova -9.5 (-110) |
