Arkansas vs. Tennessee Odds
| Arkansas Odds | +5.5 |
| Tennessee Odds | -5.5 |
| Over/Under | 134.5 |
| Date | Tuesday, Feb. 28 |
| Time | 9 p.m. ET |
| How to Watch | ESPN |
| Odds via FanDuel as of Tuesday | |
The Action Network has created a proprietary algorithm that has developed a database since 2005.
This college basketball model targets specific parameters and only encompasses the parameters for about 50 college basketball games per year.
Among them include Arkansas vs. Tennessee on Tuesday night.
The proprietary algorithm has gone 493-377-22 (57% win rate) since Mario’s “Let Me Love You” topped the charts, returning an annual 11% on investment during that timeframe.
Since 2005, if you had wagered $500 on the roughly 50 college basketball games per season that have fit this algorithm, you’d be up more than $45,000.
We don’t recommend using this betting algorithm as an alternative to investing — variance is a much sturdier constraint in sports gambling compared to the financial markets — but similar principles apply in regard to gains over a long time horizon.
Arkansas vs. Tennessee College Basketball Odds, Prediction
This betting algorithm has a list of parameters it considers when targeting a specific game and line. In general, it fades the public during conference games.
The public tends to overvalue popular conference opponents — while wagering on them heavily — and sportsbooks are forced to price lines accordingly.
“Fade the public” indicates empirically that fewer than 25% of bettors are riding with the team that you’d be betting on. Conversely, 75% or more of the public is enamored with the team you’d fade.
In addition, the game in question must have a lower total (between 128 and 146.5) in order to temper variance.
Lastly, the conference game must occur in the Big 12, SEC, Pac-12, ACC, Big Ten or Big East. So, only big-time conferences work for this ATS system.
All those parameters fit Tennessee’s point spread tonight as home favorites. Action Network’s proprietary tracking data reports that only 22% of wagers from all major American sportsbooks are on Vols to cover.
The best price in the market is Tennessee -5.5 (-115) at BetMGM.
A ridiculous 78% of the public is laying the points with the road favorites. The total also fits the aforementioned parameters.
Keep in mind that this historically profitable algorithm applies to about 50 college basketball games per year. While Tuesday night might be an opportunity to cash in, this is a long-term investment.
In order to maximize your 11% return on investment, make sure to follow through whenever this algorithm provides picks for the rest of the season.
Pick: Tennessee -5.5 (-115)