The Sweet 16 continues on Friday with four more matchups, including an all-SEC duel and two No. 1 seeds taking the floor.
Our staff is targeting three games for their best bets to help you complete your college basketball betting card.
Read below for three top Sweet 16 best bets, picks and March Madness predictions for Friday, March 28.
(There’s a parlay option below, even though that’s not our official recommendation.)
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Sweet 16 Best Bets for Friday
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college basketball betting staff is targeting from Friday’s slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| [teammatchup link=”#1″ firstfullname=”Kentucky Wildcats” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/kend.png” secondfullname=”Tennessee Volunteers” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/ten.png”][/teammatchup] | 7:39 p.m. | |
| [teammatchup link=”#2″ firstfullname=”Kentucky Wildcats” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/kend.png” secondfullname=”Tennessee Volunteers” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/ten.png”][/teammatchup] | 7:39 p.m. | |
| [teammatchup link=”#3″ firstfullname=”Michigan Wolverines” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/mich.png” secondfullname=”Auburn Tigers” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/aub.png”][/teammatchup] | 9:39 p.m. | |
|
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.
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[anchor name=”1″][/anchor]
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Kentucky vs. Tennessee”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Tennessee -4.5″ league=”ncaab” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/kend.png” awayname=”Kentucky Wildcats” awayslug=”kentucky-wildcats” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/ten.png” homename=”Tennessee Volunteers” homeslug=”tennessee-volunteers” date=”Friday, March 28″ time=”7:39 p.m. ET” network=”TBS” bookname=”DraftKings ” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/477013_DraftKings@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”draftkings”][/gameheader]
The third time will be the charm for the Volunteers in this rivalry matchup this season.
Kentucky won both regular season meetings between these two, and Tennessee couldn’t make a jump shot to save its life in either game.
I expect the law of averages to come into effect in Indy, as the Vols continue on their march to a Final Four.
Rick Barnes’ team has cranked up its level over the last three weeks or so, evident in dominant wins over UCLA, Auburn and Texas since tournament play began.
The Wildcats have certainly been playing good ball as well, but I don’t believe they have the same level of depth and physicality that Tennessee possesses.
Additionally, veteran point guard Zakai Zeigler is the type of guard that can will a team over the finish line, and he should be in for another big night on Friday night.
The Vols do a really good job contesting the 3-point shot and will need to stay close to sharpshooter Koby Brea at all times.
On the other end of the floor, Chaz Lanier has made big shots all season and should be poised for a monster night on the perimeter.
Ultimately, I expect both of these teams to embrace the moment and play well on Friday night. I just believe that Tennessee has the higher ceiling of the two groups and will find a way to gain margin in the second half.
Give me the Vols to win, cover and move on to the Elite Eight.
Pick: Tennessee -4.5 (Play to -5.5)
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[anchor name=”2″][/anchor]
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Kentucky vs. Tennessee”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Over 144.5″ league=”ncaab” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/kend.png” awayname=”Kentucky Wildcats” awayslug=”kentucky-wildcats” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/ten.png” homename=”Tennessee Volunteers” homeslug=”tennessee-volunteers” date=”Friday, March 28″ time=”7:39 p.m. ET” network=”TBS” bookname=”DraftKings ” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/477013_DraftKings@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”draftkings”][/gameheader]
Kentucky shot the lights out in the regular season series against Tennessee, shooting 24-for-48 (50%) across the two matchups.
You could bank on shooting regression from the Wildcats in the third matchup, but I still think they’ll operate very efficiently.
Tennessee is an elite on-ball pressure and gap-overhelp defense. Still, you beat that with decentralized creation that targets the weak-side secondary options before the scrambling defenders can recover.
Mark Pope’s dribble hand-off zoom offense does that better than anyone. Even if the Wildcats don’t shoot 50% from deep, they should continue to slice-and-dice Barnes and the Vols with spacing and skipping.
On the other end of the court, I’m a nonbeliever in Kentucky’s defense.
Barnes’s flex-motion offense will attack in the typical flex ways — with off-ball floppy sets, dribble hand-off actions and rim-attack cuts.
The Wildcats don’t defend any of those actions well, allowing .96 PPP against off-ball screening sets (37th percentile), 1.00 PPP to dribble handoff actions (10th percentile) and 1.28 PPP to cutters (15th percentile).
Tennessee did well with its off-ball floppy actions in the regular-season series, generating 25 points on 23 sets (1.09 PPP).
Furthermore, Kentucky’s ball-screen coverage is abhorrent. The Wildcats run a super passive drop-coverage scheme that protects the rim OK, but does very little against the dribble (.88 PPP allowed, eighth percentile) or the roller (1.14 PPP allowed, 15th percentile).
Tennessee did nothing in ball-screen creation across the two matchups, but the Vols couldn’t buy a jumper. They shot 14-for-64 (22%) from deep across the two meetings, with Ziegler and Lanier combining to shoot 4-for-30 (13%) over the top of Kentucky’s compact defense.
One guy who took advantage of the Wildcats’ deep drop was Igor Milicic Jr., a half-decent stretch five who shot 7-for-12 (58%) from deep across the two head-to-head matchups.
Kentucky’s deep-drop scheme will allow plenty of pick-and-pop shots, and Milicic should continue to take advantage — especially because he’s red-hot, having canned 36% of his triples in March.
If Milicic can keep making pick-and-pop shots while Ziegler and Lanier hit a few extra jumpers against an uber-vulnerable on-ball and off-ball screen defense, Tennessee should work efficiently in the half-court.
Meanwhile, I believe Pope’s half-court offense can continue dicing up Barnes’ half-court defense, regardless of whether the Wildcats shoot over their heads again.
Therefore, I’m inclined to bet the over.
The projection market agrees with me. KenPom makes the Kentucky-Tennessee total 148, EvanMiya makes it 147 and ShotQualityBets makes it 157.
I’m worried about the projected pace, as this should be a primarily down-tempo half-court battle. But I’m willing to take my chances, as I genuinely believe both offenses can operate very efficiently — granted they both make their jumpers.
Pick: Over 144.5 (Play to 146)
[anchor name=”3″][/anchor]
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Michigan vs. Auburn”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Auburn -9″ league=”ncaab” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/mich.png” awayname=”Michigan Wolverines” awayslug=”michigan-wolverines” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/aub.png” homename=”Auburn Tigers” homeslug=”auburn-tigers” date=”Friday, March 28″ time=”9:39 p.m. ET” network=”CBS” bookname=”Caesars Sportsbook” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/256064_caesars_800x200.png” bookreviewslug=”caesars-sportsbook”][/gameheader]
By John Feltman
It’s only a matter of time until the Michigan voodoo magic wears off, and I can confidently say that Friday night is the spot.
The Wolverines have a tall task against the Auburn Tigers, who cleaned up some of their sloppy play down the stretch.
The market opened this line at Auburn -7.5, and despite 72% of the bets being on Michigan, it’s now moved to Auburn -9.5. This is my favorite bet of the Sweet 16, even though I typically hate laying large numbers in college basketball.
The Wolverines turn the ball over far too often for my liking, and they don’t force any on the defensive side, either. The Tigers have the size to match up with Danny Wolf and Vlad Goldin inside so that the spread will come down to 3-point shooting.
I think the Wolverines have been one of the most fortunate teams in the country against the triple, so it’s only a matter of time before a team goes nuclear from deep. The Tigers aren’t the most lethal team in that department, but I envision the game getting ugly if the Wolverines turn the ball over too much.
The lone concern I have is that the Tigers foul a lot, and the Wolverines do a solid job of earning trips to the free throw line. But if Auburn can remain disciplined on defense, I think it should safely cover the number.
The Tigers are outstanding at defending the perimeter, so they should shut down any threat of a 3-point attack from the Wolverines. This is an absolute smash spot for the Tigers, and last weekend was enough to convince me that they’ve turned the corner from their late-season stumble.
Pick: Auburn -9 (Play to -10)
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