I think Auburn is vulnerable in the South Region, but I’m unsure which of the following few seeds can actually pick the Tigers off.
However, the South does have the nation’s most loveable Cinderella candidate in the UC San Diego Tritons.
Read about that and more in my 2025 NCAA Tournament South Region preview.
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”South Region Favorite” subtext=”Auburn (-140 to Make Final Four)” center=”false” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/aub.png” link1=”” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”” trailinglink=”” trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]
The knock on Auburn is that it enters March Madness in lousy form, having lost two of the final three games, including in the SEC Tournament semifinals.
The Tigers are still weak on the defensive glass. They’ve seen some serious defensive regression lately, especially on the interior, and they’ve been fouling like crazy.
But let’s not forget how good Bruce Pearl’s squad is.
These guys went 15-5 in Quad 1 games. Their 22 Quad 1 and 2 wins were two more than any other team. They ran through the uber-talented SEC while also taking down Houston, Iowa State and Purdue in the non-conference. They played the nation’s second-toughest schedule and still won 28 games.
Their offense was the nation’s best for most of the season, and is arguably still the best. Bruce Pearl’s flex-motion is often unstoppable, with Johni Broome as the key interior cog surrounded by legit spacing, shooting and driving guards in Tahaad Pettiford, Chad Baker-Mazara, Miles Kelly and Denver Jones.
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They’re still good on the offensive glass and never turn it over, so they’re not worthless in the shot-volume battle.
The defense is slow, but Auburn can play drop-coverage with Broome and his 2.3 blocks per game while switching one through four, thus denying catch-and-shoot opportunities while isolation-funneling. It’s an overall safe, sound defensive scheme.
It’ll be hard to beat Auburn. The Tigers are talented and battle-tested.
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Ultimate Winner of Region” subtext=”Auburn (-140)” center=”false” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/aub.png” link1=”” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”” trailinglink=”” trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]
That said, I think Auburn is vulnerable, given the Tigers’ down-trending performance and downright lousy defensive rebounding — they’ve allowed the nation’s most second-chance points per game over the past five (17, per CBB Analytics).
The problem is that I don’t see who picks them off.
If Iowa State were fully healthy, I’d likely have the Cyclones reaching the Final Four. Alas, they could be severely shorthanded.
Texas A&M has the best shot of taking Auburn down with how good it is on the offensive glass, but I don’t trust the Aggies to get past Yale, Michigan or UC San Diego.
While Michigan State is excellent, it’s tough to trust teams that can’t shoot in a tournament setting.
Unfortunately, I’ll likely advance the Tigers to the Final Four by default. I don’t trust anyone else in the South.
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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Potential Bracket-Buster” subtext=”UC San Diego (+7000 to Win Region)” center=”false” logo1url=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2021/10/UC-San-Diego-Tritons-Logo.png” link1=”” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”” trailinglink=”” trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]
The Tritons rock.
UC San Diego is among the better mid-major teams of the past few seasons, ranking 37th in KenPom.
The Tritons’ defense is swarming. They under-screen and over-help on the interior, doubling and denying the post while denying the post, paint and rim at all costs (23 paint points per game allowed, fourth nationally, per CBB Analytics).
Teams get frustrated with their connectivity and interior pressure, forcing them into lazy cross-court passes, which Hayden Gray picks off at will — he’s the nation’s leader in steals with 3.2 per game.
Combine that with their steady ball-handling, and the Tritons lead the nation in turnover differential (-212, per CBB Analytics).
The offense is technically not quite as dominant but is often more tantalizing to watch. Eric Olen draws up some of the nation’s prettiest ball-screen sets, mainly initiated by the impossibly good 6-foot-6 point forward Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones — a bully-ball, paint-scoring and foul-drawing merchant with elite passing vision — but complemented by a bevy of elite shooters.
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The Tritons have all the makings of a Cinderella and the path to make a deep run.
Michigan’s turnover woes will bite the Wolverines in the first round, and Texas A&M’s shooting woes will bite the Aggies in the second.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see UC San Diego in a Sweet 16 matchup with Auburn, and anything can happen with how the Tigers are trending.
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Best Matchup of First Round” subtext=”Yale vs. Texas A&M” center=”false” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/yale.png” link1=”” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/txam.png” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”” trailinglink=”” trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]
The Aggies are built for March. They’re shot-volume merchants with elite one-on-one off-the-bounce guys, a go-to scoring guard in Wade Taylor IV and a hard-nosed, tough interior defense.
As mentioned, Texas A&M has a good shot of knocking off Auburn in the Sweet 16, and I think the Aggies could make a Final Four run if they make a few triples.
The problem is that they won’t make it past Yale if the triples don’t fall.
The Bulldogs are a tough matchup for the Aggies for three reasons.
First, Texas A&M wins on extras, as the Aggies rank fourth nationally in rebounding and turnover differential (+330, per CBB Analytics).
Unfortunately for them, Yale is a fantastic two-way rebounding team that never turns the ball over, ranking in the top 20 nationally in rebounding and turnover differential (+220, per CBB Analytics).
Second, Yale’s defense relentlessly under-screens, packs it in and denies the rim with a legit 6-foot-10 rim protector in Samson Aletan (10% block rate, top 20 nationally, per KenPom).
Texas A&M is unstoppable when making 3s, but the Aggies can’t shoot straight, hitting under 30% from deep in SEC play. The Aggies are vulnerable if forced to win over the top, and that’s what Yale will do.
Third, I trust James Jones to make the proper offensive adjustments for this matchup.
On the surface, I’m worried that Yale’s somewhat rim-reliant, ball-screen motion offense will struggle against Texas A&M’s aggressive switch and post-denial.
However, the Bulldogs are a legit spacing-and-shooting offense that generates a high unguarded catch-and-shoot rate, which is how you beat the Aggies’ switch and post-denial defense.
Also, the Ivy is a good league. The top of this league can compete with the big boys, and I expect the Bulldogs to push the Aggies to the brink in this first-round matchup.
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