sean-koerner-2025-bracket

2025 NCAA Tournament Picks, Predictions: Expert Reveals Full March Madness Bracket

It’s time for March Madness and for our NCAA Tournament bracket picks.

There are two main variables I consider before picking a team to advance:

  1. My projected odds of that team advancing through each round are based on 10,000 simulations run using my custom team ratings.
  2. The average percentage of users who have that team advancing on ESPN and Yahoo!

With those factors, I create a leverage score for every team to get a sense of which schools the market is overrating or underrating. The goal is to maximize our leverage score while building a bracket.

The leverage score equation: my projected odds minus the percentage of users picking a team.

In order to fully utilize the leverage score, I have created a tool that provides you with all the necessary data for every possible matchup. To download my 2025 NCAA Tournament Bracket Builder, click here.

The point of being in a huge, top-heavy payout pool is to go against the grain, which is what I do here but in a sharp way.

Using my strategy, the bracket can be really bad when it’s bad. When it’s good, though, it’s really good. My brackets have finished in the 95th percentile in two of the last four years, and that’s where you want to be to get paid in your pool. The 60th percentile likely wins $0 from just picking chalk, so let’s aim higher.

Before you dive into the picks, I want to note that you should check this page again on Wednesday night before you lock in your picks. There’s a chance that based on the results of games on Tuesday and Wednesday some of my picks will change. I will note in my breakdowns below which games those are.

Also, the graphic you see at the top of each region is each team’s leverage score to advance from that round.

2025 NCAA Tournament Bracket Picks

[anchor name=”table”][/anchor]

Click on a section to skip ahead
East
West
South
Midwest
Final Four

[anchor name=”1″][/anchor]

East Region

Round of 64

[gameheader haspick=”false” picktext=”” league=”ncaab” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/dukd.png” awayname=”Duke” awayslug=”duke-blue-devils” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/amer.png” homename=”American” homeslug=”american-eagles” date=”No. 1 Duke over No. 16 American/Mount St. Mary’s” time=”” network=”” bookname=”” bookprimarylogo=”” bookreviewslug=””][/gameheader]

Luckily, I don’t have to wait to see which team Duke plays to make this pick.

[gameheader haspick=”false” picktext=”” league=”ncaab” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/msst.png” awayname=”Mississippi State” awayslug=”mississippi-state-bulldogs” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/bay.png” homename=”Baylor” homeslug=”baylor-bears” date=”No. 8 Mississippi State over No. 9 Baylor” time=”” network=”” bookname=”” bookprimarylogo=”” bookreviewslug=””][/gameheader]

Mississippi State is a slight 1.5-point favorite, but only 44% of users are picking them. That means the Bulldogs offer a +10% leverage score, making them a strong value play.

[gameheader haspick=”false” picktext=”” league=”ncaab” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/lib.png” awayname=”Liberty” awayslug=”liberty-flames” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/ore.png” homename=”Oregon” homeslug=”oregon-ducks” date=”No. 12 Liberty over No. 5 Oregon” time=”” network=”” bookname=”” bookprimarylogo=”” bookreviewslug=””][/gameheader]

I agree with Oregon as a six-point favorite, but 82% of users are backing them. That gives Liberty a +14% leverage score.

Liberty is an elite shooting team but struggles at the free-throw line, where Oregon doesn’t foul often, creating a sneaky edge for Liberty. However, the Flames’ reliance on the 3-pointer increases variance, which works in their favor as underdogs.

I’m rolling with Liberty as an upset pick.

[relatedarticle articleimageurl=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2025/03/nique.png” linktext=”Top 5 Upset Picks” link=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaab/ncaa-tournament-bracket-predictions-upset-picks-march-madness-bracket-pools-2025″][/relatedarticle]

[gameheader haspick=”false” picktext=”” league=”ncaab” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/ari.png” awayname=”Arizona” awayslug=”arizona-wildcats” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/akr.png” homename=”Akron” homeslug=”akron-zips” date=”No. 4 Arizona over No. 13 Akron” time=”” network=”” bookname=”” bookprimarylogo=”” bookreviewslug=””][/gameheader]

Arizona is a 13.5-point favorite and offers a +5% leverage score. Since this is a case of getting a positive leverage score on the most likely outcome, Arizona is an auto-play.

[gameheader haspick=”false” picktext=”” league=”ncaab” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/vcu.png” awayname=”BYU” awayslug=”vcu-rams” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/byu.png” homename=”BYU” homeslug=”byu-cougars” date=”No. 11 VCU over No. 6 BYU” time=”” network=”” bookname=”” bookprimarylogo=”” bookreviewslug=””][/gameheader]

This is a tight 6 vs. 11 matchup with BYU as 3.5-point favorites. While I agree with that line, 68% of users are on BYU, making VCU’s +10% leverage score tempting.

When BYU has possession, it’ll be a strength-on-strength battle with BYU ranking seventh in effective FG% against VCU’s No. 1-ranked defensive eFG% in the country (44.4%). The Rams also force teams to the free-throw line, where BYU struggles.

This sets up nicely for a VCU upset, and I’m taking them here.

[gameheader haspick=”false” picktext=”” league=”ncaab” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/wis.png” awayname=”Wisconsin” awayslug=”wisconsin-badgers” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/mont.png” homename=”Montana” homeslug=”montana-grizzlies” date=”No. 3 Wisconsin over No. 14 Montana” time=”” network=”” bookname=”” bookprimarylogo=”” bookreviewslug=””][/gameheader]

No need to overthink this one. Wisconsin is a heavy favorite and offers a slight +3% leverage score, so it’s an easy pick.

[gameheader haspick=”false” picktext=”” league=”ncaab” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/smc.png” awayname=”Saint Mary’s” awayslug=”saint-marys-gaels” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/van.png” homename=”Vanderbilt” homeslug=”vanderbilt-commodores” date=”No. 7 Saint Mary’s over No. 10 Vanderbilt” time=”” network=”” bookname=”” bookprimarylogo=”” bookreviewslug=””][/gameheader]

Saint Mary’s offers +12% leverage here but more importantly, it has a 14%+ leverage score in the next round if it upsets Alabama. This makes the Gaels a strong long-term play, so I’m taking Saint Mary’s here.

[gameheader haspick=”false” picktext=”” league=”ncaab” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/bama.png” awayname=”Alabama” awayslug=”alabama-crimson-tide” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/rm.png” homename=”Robert Morris” homeslug=”robert-morris-colonials” date=”No. 2 Alabama over No. 15 Robert Morris” time=”” network=”” bookname=”” bookprimarylogo=”” bookreviewslug=””][/gameheader]

Alabama’s fast pace creates more possessions, which amplifies its advantage in a mismatch like this one. No reason to overthink it.

_InlineAdBlock

Round of 32

[gameheader haspick=”false” picktext=”” league=”ncaab” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/dukd.png” awayname=”Duke” awayslug=”duke-blue-devils” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/msst.png” homename=”Mississippi State” homeslug=”mississippi-state-bulldogs” date=”No. 1 Duke over No. 8 Mississippi State” time=”” network=”” bookname=”” bookprimarylogo=”” bookreviewslug=””][/gameheader]

Duke would be around 12-point favorites here, the largest spread of any No. 1 seed’s second-round matchup. The Blue Devils are an easy pick to advance.

[gameheader haspick=”false” picktext=”” league=”ncaab” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/ari.png” awayname=”Arizona” awayslug=”arizona-wildcats” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/lib.png” homename=”Liberty” homeslug=”liberty-flames” date=”No. 4 Arizona over No. 12 Liberty” time=”” network=”” bookname=”” bookprimarylogo=”” bookreviewslug=””][/gameheader]

Arizona offers a +9% leverage score and as the most likely outcome, the Wildcats are an auto-pick for me to reach the Sweet 16.

[gameheader haspick=”false” picktext=”” league=”ncaab” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/wis.png” awayname=”Wisconsin” awayslug=”wisconsin-badgers” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/vcu.png” homename=”VCU” homeslug=”vcu-rams” date=”No. 3 Wisconsin over No. 11 VCU” time=”” network=”” bookname=”” bookprimarylogo=”” bookreviewslug=””][/gameheader]

VCU presents a +9% leverage score, making the Rams an interesting upset option. However, Wisconsin advances 54% of the time in my model and offers leverage against Alabama next round. I’ll roll with the Badgers here.

[gameheader haspick=”false” picktext=”” league=”ncaab” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/smc.png” awayname=”Saint Mary’s” awayslug=”saint-marys-gaels” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/bama.png” homename=”Alabama” homeslug=”alabama-crimson-tide” date=”No. 7 Saint Mary’s over No. 2 Alabama” time=”” network=”” bookname=”” bookprimarylogo=”” bookreviewslug=””][/gameheader]

This is a classic tempo clash between one of the slowest-paced teams in the country and one of the fastest.

Alabama would be just favored by about 4.5 points, but 86% of users are picking it. The Tide’s volatility makes them a great team to fade. Its reliance on outside shooting creates a wide range of outcomes. Saint Mary’s thrives on interior scoring, which could be the best way to attack Alabama and gives the Gaels a high floor.

Given these factors, Saint Mary’s is the sharp play.

Sweet 16

[gameheader haspick=”false” picktext=”” league=”ncaab” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/dukd.png” awayname=”Duke” awayslug=”duke-blue-devils” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/ari.png” homename=”Arizona” homeslug=”arizona-wildcats” date=”No. 1 Duke over No. 4 Arizona” time=”” network=”” bookname=”” bookprimarylogo=”” bookreviewslug=””][/gameheader]

If you’re filling out a bracket that doesn’t have Duke winning it all, this is a key spot to consider knocking them out.

For my main bracket, though, I’m advancing Duke as one of my two No. 1 seeds in the Final Four.

Cooper Flagg (arguably the best player in the country) is expected to return from his ankle injury. Duke has an easy opening weekend, meaning Flagg might not have to play heavy minutes in his return to ensure he’s closer to 100% for the second weekend.

If Flagg is back closer to 100% by this point, Duke will be that much more likely to advance.

[gameheader haspick=”false” picktext=”” league=”ncaab” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/wis.png” awayname=”Wisconsin” awayslug=”wisconsin-badgers” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/smc.png” homename=”Saint Mary’s” homeslug=”saint-marys-gaels” date=”No. 3 Wisconsin over No. 7 Saint Mary’s” time=”” network=”” bookname=”” bookprimarylogo=”” bookreviewslug=””][/gameheader]

Most brackets will have Alabama advancing to the Elite Eight so if this matchup happens, we’re already gaining a major edge on the field.

The sharp play is to advance Wisconsin since it still provides leverage if Saint Mary’s falls short against Alabama, giving Wisconsin a chance to pull the upset instead.

While Alabama advancing to the Elite Eight is the most likely outcome, I think the market is overlooking Wisconsin’s chances. It would be easy to just take the favorite in every matchup, but the key to winning your bracket is knowing where to be contrarian. This is the best spot in the region to do so.

Elite Eight

[gameheader haspick=”false” picktext=”” league=”ncaab” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/dukd.png” awayname=”Duke” awayslug=”duke-blue-devils” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/wis.png” homename=”Wisconsin” homeslug=”wisconsin-badgers” date=”No. 1 Duke over No. 3 Wisconsin” time=”” network=”” bookname=”” bookprimarylogo=”” bookreviewslug=””][/gameheader]

Duke carries a -8% leverage score to advance to the Final Four, but it remains one of the clear favorites to win it all.

Duke’s path sets them up for a deep run, and Flagg’s health will improve as the tournament progresses, making them even stronger by this stage. The Blue Devils are the most-picked team to win it all so if you don’t have them as your champ, you’ll have a major edge over the field if they fall short.

Therefore, you don’t have to go nuts and have Duke getting knocked out early to be contrarian. If you simply don’t have them winning it all, that should be contrarian enough.

_InlineAdBlock


East | West | South | Midwest | Final Four


[anchor name=”2″][/anchor]

West Region

Round of 64

[gameheader haspick=”false” picktext=”” league=”ncaab” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/fla.png” awayname=”Florida” awayslug=”florida-gators” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/nfs.png” homename=”Norfolk State” homeslug=”norfolk-state-spartans” date=”No. 1 Florida over No. 16 Norfolk State” time=”” network=”” bookname=”” bookprimarylogo=”” bookreviewslug=””][/gameheader]

About 2% of users are content taking a zero here on Norfolk State.

[gameheader haspick=”false” picktext=”” league=”ncaab” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/uconn.png” awayname=”UConn” awayslug=”connecticut-huskies” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/okl.png” homename=”Oklahoma” homeslug=”oklahoma-sooners” date=”No. 8 UConn over No. 9 Oklahoma” time=”” network=”” bookname=”” bookprimarylogo=”” bookreviewslug=””][/gameheader]

This is a tough call. Oklahoma matches up well against UConn and offers 6% leverage, but I still lean toward the Huskies to survive.

Since I plan on Florida eliminating the winner next round, I’m not sweating this pick and may revisit it after further research.

[gameheader haspick=”false” picktext=”” league=”ncaab” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/csu.png” awayname=”Colorado State” awayslug=”colorado-state-rams” homelogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/26320_memphis.png” homename=”Memphis” homeslug=”memphis-tigers” date=”No. 12 Colorado State over No. 5 Memphis” time=”” network=”” bookname=”” bookprimarylogo=”” bookreviewslug=””][/gameheader]

Colorado State is the hottest team in the country and has a +29% leverage score. Despite being 2.5-point favorites, only 29% of users are picking them, which makes this a no-brainer leverage play for my bracket strategy.

[gameheader haspick=”false” picktext=”” league=”ncaab” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/mar.png” awayname=”Maryland” awayslug=”maryland-terrapins” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/gc.png” homename=”Grand Canyon” homeslug=”grand-canyon-antelopes” date=”No. 4 Maryland over No. 13 Grand Canyon” time=”” network=”” bookname=”” bookprimarylogo=”” bookreviewslug=””][/gameheader]

Maryland is a dangerous No. 4 seed, and Grand Canyon is a dangerous No. 13 seed, so it’s unfortunate they face off early. Since many brackets have Memphis going to the Sweet 16, taking Maryland here creates strong leverage for the next round. That said, I wouldn’t be shocked if Grand Canyon pulls off the upset.

[relatedarticle articleimageurl=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2025/03/bracket-picks.jpg” linktext=”PoolGenius Bracket Strategy” link=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaab/ncaa-bracket-strategy-smart-picks-upsets-seed-analysis”][/relatedarticle]

[gameheader haspick=”false” picktext=”” league=”ncaab” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/miz.png” awayname=”Missouri” awayslug=”missouri-tigers” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/drake.png” homename=”Drake” homeslug=”drake-bulldogs” date=”No. 6 Missouri over No. 11 Drake” time=”” network=”” bookname=”” bookprimarylogo=”” bookreviewslug=””][/gameheader]

Drake is a trendy upset pick, but Missouri is still favored to win about 70% of the time. With only 60% of users picking them, we get a +10% leverage score on the most likely outcome. That makes this an easy call to take Missouri.

[gameheader haspick=”false” picktext=”” league=”ncaab” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/tt.png” awayname=”Texas Tech” awayslug=”texas-tech-red-raiders” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/uncw.png” homename=”UNC Wilmington” homeslug=”unc-wilmington-seahawks” date=”No. 3 Texas Tech over No. 14 UNC Wilmington” time=”” network=”” bookname=”” bookprimarylogo=”” bookreviewslug=””][/gameheader]

Texas Tech has dealt with injuries, but Chance McMillian and Darrion Williams are expected to return for the tournament. The Red Raiders are 15.5-point favorites and hold better odds (+500) to win the region than No. 2-seed St. John’s (+600), which shows their strength as a No. 3 seed.

[gameheader haspick=”false” picktext=”” league=”ncaab” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/kan.png” awayname=”Kansas” awayslug=”kansas-jayhawks” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/ark.png” homename=”Arkansas” homeslug=”arkansas-razorbacks” date=”No. 7 Kansas over No. 10 Arkansas” time=”” network=”” bookname=”” bookprimarylogo=”” bookreviewslug=””][/gameheader]

As of Monday night, 64% of users were on Kansas, but I have them closer to a 70% chance to advance. As always, when there’s a positive leverage score on the most likely outcome, I’ll take it. I’m going with Kansas here.

[gameheader haspick=”false” picktext=”” league=”ncaab” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/sju.png” awayname=”St. John’s” awayslug=”st-johns-red-storm” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/neom.png” homename=”Omaha” homeslug=”omaha-mavericks” date=”No. 2 St. John’s over No. 15 Omaha” time=”” network=”” bookname=”” bookprimarylogo=”” bookreviewslug=””][/gameheader]

This wraps up a fairly chalky round in this region. Given how many users expect chaos here, though, playing it straight actually creates contrarian value. Most of the leverage in this region will come in the later rounds.

_InlineAdBlock

Round of 32

[gameheader haspick=”false” picktext=”” league=”ncaab” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/fla.png” awayname=”Florida” awayslug=”florida-gators” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/uconn.png” homename=”UConn” homeslug=”connecticut-huskies” date=”No. 1 Florida over No. 8 UConn” time=”” network=”” bookname=”” bookprimarylogo=”” bookreviewslug=””][/gameheader]

I have Florida as a near double-digit favorite and plan on it making a deep run in my bracket.

[gameheader haspick=”false” picktext=”” league=”ncaab” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/mar.png” awayname=”Maryland” awayslug=”maryland-terrapins” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/csu.png” homename=”Colorado State” homeslug=”colorado-state-rams” date=”No. 4 Maryland over No. 12 Colorado State” time=”” network=”” bookname=”” bookprimarylogo=”” bookreviewslug=””][/gameheader]

Most users still have Memphis advancing here, which is wild and gives us huge leverage if this matchup happens.

I like Colorado State, but Maryland has been the better team all season and enters the tournament red-hot. I expect Maryland to be favored by about five points, so I’ll advance them here.

[gameheader haspick=”false” picktext=”” league=”ncaab” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/tt.png” awayname=”Texas Tech” awayslug=”texas-tech-red-raiders” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/miz.png” homename=”Missouri” homeslug=”missouri-tigers” date=”No. 3 Texas Tech over No. 6 Missouri” time=”” network=”” bookname=”” bookprimarylogo=”” bookreviewslug=””][/gameheader]

Missouri would be a solid upset pick since Texas Tech might only be favored by 2-3 points.

However, my real leverage play in this region is fading St. John’s early, so I want to maximize their difficulty in advancing. That means taking Texas Tech here.

[gameheader haspick=”false” picktext=”” league=”ncaab” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/sju.png” awayname=”St. John’s” awayslug=”st-johns-red-storm” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/kan.png” homename=”Kansas” homeslug=”kansas-jayhawks” date=”No. 2 St. John’s over No. 7 Kansas” time=”” network=”” bookname=”” bookprimarylogo=”” bookreviewslug=””][/gameheader]

The larger your pool, the more it makes sense to pick Kansas here. St. John’s is a vulnerable No. 2 seed, and fading them in the next round or two is a solid strategy.

That said, I’m not fading Rick Pitino just yet. I’m advancing St. John’s for now but likely eliminate it next round.

Sweet 16

[gameheader haspick=”false” picktext=”” league=”ncaab” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/fla.png” awayname=”Florida” awayslug=”florida-gators” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/mar.png” homename=”Maryland” homeslug=”maryland-terrapins” date=”No. 1 Florida over No. 4 Maryland” time=”” network=”” bookname=”” bookprimarylogo=”” bookreviewslug=””][/gameheader]

This is one of the most critical matchups in the region for bracket strategy.

Maryland offers a strong +11% leverage score, and Florida has the second-highest leverage (+2.5%) to win it all, which is the most important pick of your entire bracket.

Since I plan on Florida winning the title, I have to pass on the leverage here and advance it. However, if you’re making multiple brackets, this is a great pivot spot to take Maryland in non-Florida-winning entries.

[gameheader haspick=”false” picktext=”” league=”ncaab” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/tt.png” awayname=”Texas Tech” awayslug=”texas-tech-red-raiders” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/sju.png” homename=”St. John’s” homeslug=”st-johns-red-storm” date=”No. 3 Texas Tech over No. 2 St. John’s” time=”” network=”” bookname=”” bookprimarylogo=”” bookreviewslug=””][/gameheader]

Having a coach like Pitino will certainly help St. John’s navigate the early rounds, but this is where things could get dicey.

This should be a coin-flip matchup, but 67% of users are backing St. John’s, which is way too high given how close this game likely is. Texas Tech has the second-best odds to win the region and while that doesn’t guarantee an Elite Eight appearance, it reinforces them as the sharp play here.

Elite Eight

[gameheader haspick=”false” picktext=”” league=”ncaab” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/fla.png” awayname=”Florida” awayslug=”florida-gators” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/tt.png” homename=”Texas Tech” homeslug=”texas-tech-red-raiders” date=”No. 1 Florida over No. 3 Texas Tech” time=”” network=”” bookname=”” bookprimarylogo=”” bookreviewslug=””][/gameheader]

Similar to my Sweet 16 decision between Florida and Maryland, I’m willing to eat the -5% leverage score on Florida here because I have the Gators winning it all.

While this region played out fairly chalky, that was intentional. We gained leverage along the way by making sharp picks. Plus, if Texas Tech makes it this far, it gives us a leg up on all the brackets that had St. John’s advancing to the Elite Eight or beyond.

At this stage, your championship pick is the most important decision in your bracket, so I’m sticking with Florida. However, if I’m making a non-Florida champion bracket, the sweet spot for the Gators to lose is earlier than the Elite Eight.

_InlineAdBlock


East | West | South | Midwest | Final Four


[anchor name=”3″][/anchor]

South Region

Round of 64

[gameheader haspick=”false” picktext=”” league=”ncaab” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/aub.png” awayname=”Auburn” awayslug=”auburn-tigers” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/alast.png” homename=”Alabama State” homeslug=”alabama-state-hornets” date=”No. 1 Auburn over No 16. Alabama State/Saint Francis” time=”” network=”” bookname=”” bookprimarylogo=”” bookreviewslug=””][/gameheader]

About 2% of users are content taking a zero here on the Alabama State/Saint Francis First Four winner.

[gameheader haspick=”false” picktext=”” league=”ncaab” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/lou.png” awayname=”Louisville” awayslug=”louisville-cardinals” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/crei.png” homename=”Creighton” homeslug=”creighton-bluejays” date=”No. 8 Louisville over No. 9 Creighton” time=”” network=”” bookname=”” bookprimarylogo=”” bookreviewslug=””][/gameheader]

Louisville was disappointed to land a No. 8 seed, but the committee softened the blow by placing them in Lexington for the opening round. As of Monday night, 55% of users are backing the Cardinals here, but I have it closer to 60% given the semi-home-court advantage.

[gameheader haspick=”false” picktext=”” league=”ncaab” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/ucsd.png” awayname=”UC San Diego” awayslug=”uc-san-diego-tritons” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/mich.png” homename=”Michigan” homeslug=”michigan-wolverines” date=”No. 12 UC San Diego over No. 5 Michigan” time=”” network=”” bookname=”” bookprimarylogo=”” bookreviewslug=””][/gameheader]

This is one of the more fascinating matchups of the opening round. I was planning to back both teams before the bracket was released, so it’s tough to see them face off.

Michigan struggles with turnovers, and UC San Diego thrives on forcing them. The market has the Wolverines as 2.5-point favorites, and I agree with their 55% win probability. However, 80% of users are on Michigan, making the Tritons’ 25% leverage score too valuable to pass up.

I’ll roll with San Diego here.

[gameheader haspick=”false” picktext=”” league=”ncaab” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/txam.png” awayname=”Texans A&M” awayslug=”texas-am-aggies” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/yale.png” homename=”Yale” homeslug=”yale-bulldogs” date=”No. 4 Texas A&M over No. 13 Yale” time=”” network=”” bookname=”” bookprimarylogo=”” bookreviewslug=””][/gameheader]

Yale will be a popular sleeper after shocking Auburn (and busting my bracket) last year, but I’m in line with the market here and have A&M winning this game 77% of the time.

The Aggies are an abysmal shooting team but lead the country in offensive rebound rate. They also funnel teams into three-pointers and limit interior scoring, which is a perfect counter to Yale’s offensive approach.

[gameheader haspick=”false” picktext=”” league=”ncaab” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/nc.png” awayname=”North Carolina” awayslug=”north-carolina-tarheels” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/mis.png” homename=”Ole Miss” homeslug=”ole-miss-rebels” date=”No. 11 North Carolina over No. 6 Ole Miss” time=”” network=”” bookname=”” bookprimarylogo=”” bookreviewslug=””][/gameheader]

North Carolina sneaking into the tournament was one of Selection Sunday’s biggest controversies. The Tar Heels’ 1-12 Quad 1 record raised questions about their legitimacy, but they’re still a dangerous No. 11 seed. If it gets past San Diego State, I’ll take UNC to upset Ole Miss.

Right now, 67% of users are on Ole Miss, likely because people pick known teams rather than waiting for a First Four result. If San Diego State advances, I’ll likely pivot to Ole Miss and possibly adjust my Sweet 16/Elite Eight picks in this region. This is a key wait-and-see spot.

[gameheader haspick=”false” picktext=”” league=”ncaab” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/isu.png” awayname=”Iowa State” awayslug=”iowa-state-cyclones” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/lip.png” homename=”Lipscomb” homeslug=”lipscomb-bisons” date=”No. 3 Iowa State over No. 14 Lipscomb” time=”” network=”” bookname=”” bookprimarylogo=”” bookreviewslug=””][/gameheader]

Iowa State took a brutal blow losing guard Keshon Gilbert to a season-ending injury. That dings the Cyclones’ championship upside, but this team doesn’t rely on any one player. They should handle Lipscomb as 13.5-point favorites.

The big wild card: Tamin Lipsey’s groin injury (day-to-day). If he’s ruled out, it could impact my pick for the next round. For now, I’m sticking with Iowa State.

[gameheader haspick=”false” picktext=”” league=”ncaab” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/marq.png” awayname=”Marquette” awayslug=”marquette-golden-eagles” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/nm.png” homename=”New Mexico” homeslug=”new-mexico-lobos” date=”No. 7 Marquette over No. 10 New Mexico” time=”” network=”” bookname=”” bookprimarylogo=”” bookreviewslug=””][/gameheader]

Looking ahead at my Leverage by Round chart, whoever wins this matchup will provide solid leverage against Michigan State next round. That’s something I’ll likely attack next round.

For this matchup, I’m going to side with Marquette despite New Mexico offering some leverage here. I have Marquette as a slight three-point favorite in what should be a fast-paced game with a high number of possessions. That feels like the kind of game that will benefit a team with a slight edge like Marquette.

One thing that caught my eye is that not only are the Lobos a bad free throw shooting team (68.4%), but they allowed the second-lowest FT% in the country at 66.7%. Marquette is around league average, but this will be a game where New Mexico will lose a few points in edge at the free throw line, which could be all the difference in the opening round.

[gameheader haspick=”false” picktext=”” league=”ncaab” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/msud.png” awayname=”Michigan State” awayslug=”michigan-state-spartans” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/bryb.png” homename=”Bryant” homeslug=”bryant-bulldogs” date=”No. 2 Michigan State over No. 15 Bryant” time=”” network=”” bookname=”” bookprimarylogo=”” bookreviewslug=””][/gameheader]

Michigan State should cruise here as a 17.5-point favorite.

_InlineAdBlock

Round of 32

[gameheader haspick=”false” picktext=”” league=”ncaab” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/aub.png” awayname=”Auburn” awayslug=”auburn-tigers” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/lou.png” homename=”Louisville” homeslug=”louisville-cardinals” date=”No. 1 Auburn over No. 8 Louisville” time=”” network=”” bookname=”” bookprimarylogo=”” bookreviewslug=””][/gameheader]

A whopping 93% of users are backing Auburn, which feels way too high. Louisville gets a semi-home boost, and Auburn would likely be around 7.5-point favorites, making this a potential bracket-buster.

That said, fading Auburn outright here is sharp but very high risk. A better approach is to have the Tigers advance through the early rounds before getting knocked out later. That way, you still gain leverage if they get upset early while minimizing unnecessary risk.

If you are in a very large pool with a very top-heavy payout, this would be one way to try to take the whole thing down.

[gameheader haspick=”false” picktext=”” league=”ncaab” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/txam.png” awayname=”Texas A&M” awayslug=”texas-am-aggies” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/ucsd.png” homename=”UC San Diego” homeslug=”uc-san-diego-tritons” date=”No. 4 Texas A&M over No. 12 UC San Diego” time=”” network=”” bookname=”” bookprimarylogo=”” bookreviewslug=””][/gameheader]

Most brackets have Michigan advancing instead of UC San Diego so if this matchup happens, we’re already in a great leverage spot. In these cases, I usually side with the more likely winner, and that’s Texas A&M, which would be around 3.5-point favorites.

[gameheader haspick=”false” picktext=”” league=”ncaab” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/isu.png” awayname=”Iowa State” awayslug=”iowa-state-cyclones” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/nc.png” homename=”North Carolina” homeslug=”north-carolina-tarheels” date=”No. 3 Iowa State over No. 11 North Carolina” time=”” network=”” bookname=”” bookprimarylogo=”” bookreviewslug=””][/gameheader]

This matchup hinges on who wins the First Four and whether it’s UNC or San Diego State that plays Ole Miss. If San Diego State beats North Carolina, I’ll likely have Ole Miss facing Iowa State here instead.

UNC offers 11% leverage here, making it a tempting pick, but we’ve already cashed in 22% leverage if it wins the opening round. Iowa State would be around a 2.5-point favorite, even after docking two points from their power rating due to Gilbert’s injury.

Since the winner of this matchup could be a sneaky Elite Eight pick, I’m playing it safer and advancing Iowa State.

[gameheader haspick=”false” picktext=”” league=”ncaab” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/marq.png” awayname=”Marquette” awayslug=”marquette-golden-eagles” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/msud.png” homename=”Michigan State” homeslug=”michigan-state-spartans” date=”No. 7 Marquette over No. 2 Michigan State” time=”” network=”” bookname=”” bookprimarylogo=”” bookreviewslug=””][/gameheader]

A whopping 84% of users are on Michigan State, but Sparty might only be a 4.5-point favorite here. That gives Marquette a 34% upset chance, which is enough leverage to take a shot.

There’s major upside in having Michigan State knocked out this round or next, and eliminating it here would also make Iowa State’s path easier, helping offset Gilbert’s injury.

I’m rolling with Marquette in the upset.

Sweet 16

[gameheader haspick=”false” picktext=”” league=”ncaab” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/aub.png” awayname=”Auburn” awayslug=”auburn-tigers” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/txam.png” homename=”Texas A&M” homeslug=”texas-am-aggies” date=”No. 1 Auburn over No. 4 Texas A&M” time=”” network=”” bookname=”” bookprimarylogo=”” bookreviewslug=””][/gameheader]

Auburn would be around a 6.5-point favorite here, making this another sneaky spot to take it out. However, since I already have chaos unfolding in the bottom half of this region and likely have Iowa State making a surprise Final Four run, I’m playing this one safer and advancing Auburn as the most likely outcome.

That said, if Texas A&M pulls the upset, I still benefit since it would make Iowa State’s potential path to the Elite Eight even easier and most people will have Auburn going farther than I do.

[gameheader haspick=”false” picktext=”” league=”ncaab” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/isu.png” awayname=”Iowa State” awayslug=”iowa-state-cyclones” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/marq.png” homename=”Marquette” homeslug=”marquette-golden-eagles” date=”No. 3 Iowa State over No. 7 Marquette” time=”” network=”” bookname=”” bookprimarylogo=”” bookreviewslug=””][/gameheader]

Iowa State would likely be around a two-point favorite, so the 81% of users backing them here seems a bit inflated. Marquette has a much better chance to advance than the public perception suggests.

However, if Marquette does eliminate Michigan State, my bracket will already be in a great spot, making this decision easier. I’m sticking with Iowa State here, but my real play is setting up for Auburn to miss the Final Four, not because it’s the most probable outcome, but because it creates leverage in an otherwise chalk-heavy Final Four.

Elite Eight

[gameheader haspick=”false” picktext=”” league=”ncaab” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/isu.png” awayname=”Iowa State” awayslug=”iowa-state-cyclones” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/aub.png” homename=”Auburn” homeslug=”auburn-tigers” date=”No. 3 Iowa State over No. 1 Auburn” time=”” network=”” bookname=”” bookprimarylogo=”” bookreviewslug=””][/gameheader]

This is the ideal spot to send Auburn home with 89% of users picking the Tigers in this exact matchup, making it a prime leverage opportunity.

Iowa State would likely be around six-point underdogs and while some may hesitate due to Gilbert’s injury, I don’t think it’s as impactful as people assume. This team is deep and balanced, ranking ninth in KenPom defensive efficiency and 20th in offense. The Cyclones can withstand an injury to one key player, though they’d be in trouble if multiple go down.

I also think the slightly easier path I’ve mapped out for them is very realistic and comes with a ton of leverage along the way. Plus, there’s a real chance Auburn doesn’t even make it here, which would bust a massive portion of brackets and further open the door for Iowa State.

At anywhere between +500 to +750 odds to win the South, Iowa State is a bit of a long shot — but a realistic one. If the Cyclones get a little luck, this could be the difference in making your bracket truly competitive.

_InlineAdBlock


East | West | South | Midwest | Final Four


[anchor name=”4″][/anchor]

Midwest Region

Round of 64

[gameheader haspick=”false” picktext=”” league=”ncaab” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/hou.png” awayname=”Houston” awayslug=”houston-cougars” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/siue.png” homename=”SIU Edwardsville” homeslug=”siu-edwardsville-cougars” date=”No. 1 Houston over No. 16 SIU Edwardsville” time=”” network=”” bookname=”” bookprimarylogo=”” bookreviewslug=””][/gameheader]

About 2% of users are content taking a zero here on SIU Edwardsville.

[gameheader haspick=”false” picktext=”” league=”ncaab” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/gonz.png” awayname=”Gonzaga” awayslug=”gonzaga-bulldogs” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/uga.png” homename=”Georgia” homeslug=”georgia-bulldogs” date=”No. 8 Gonzaga over No. 9 Georgia” time=”” network=”” bookname=”” bookprimarylogo=”” bookreviewslug=””][/gameheader]

Gonzaga might be the best 8-seed ever. The Bulldogs are 6.5-point favorites, making this less of a coin flip than most 8 vs. 9 matchups. Gonzaga’s +900 odds to win the region (third best) are unheard of for a No. 8 seed.

[gameheader haspick=”false” picktext=”” league=”ncaab” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/cle.png” awayname=”Clemson” awayslug=”clemson-tigers” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/mcn.png” homename=”McNeese State” homeslug=”mcneese-state-cowboys” date=”No. 5 Clemson over No. 12 McNeese State” time=”” network=”” bookname=”” bookprimarylogo=”” bookreviewslug=””][/gameheader]

This is the most lopsided 5 vs. 12 matchup with Clemson as 7.5-point favorites. I already have three 12 seeds advancing, so I’m rolling with the chalk here and taking Clemson.

[gameheader haspick=”false” picktext=”” league=”ncaab” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/pur.png” awayname=”Purdue” awayslug=”purdue-boilermakers” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/hp.png” homename=”High Point” homeslug=”high-point-panthers” date=”No. 4 Purdue over No. 13 High Point” time=”” network=”” bookname=”” bookprimarylogo=”” bookreviewslug=””][/gameheader]

Yale is the trendy No. 13 pick, but High Point may be the sharper play. The Panthers are also a 7.5-point underdog, but 6% more users are picking Yale as a No. 13 seed to advance. However, in my main bracket, all four No. 4 seeds advance.

I’m going with Purdue.

[gameheader haspick=”false” picktext=”” league=”ncaab” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/xav.png” awayname=”Xavier/Texas” awayslug=”xavier-musketeers” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/ill.png” homename=”Illinois” homeslug=”illinois-fighting-illini” date=”No. 11 Xavier over No. 6 Illinois” time=”” network=”” bookname=”” bookprimarylogo=”” bookreviewslug=””][/gameheader]

Like other First Four No. 11 seed matchups, too many users are placeholder-picking the No. 6 seed.

Once the field is set and the spread is in the 3.5-4.5 range, expect Illinois’ 77% user pick rate to drop. Xavier/Texas currently has a +17% leverage score.

I’m taking Xavier/Texas here, ideally Xavier.

[gameheader haspick=”false” picktext=”” league=”ncaab” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/kend.png” awayname=”Kentucky” awayslug=”kentucky-wildcats” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/try.png” homename=”Troy” homeslug=”troy-trojans” date=”No. 3 Kentucky over No. 14 Troy” time=”” network=”” bookname=”” bookprimarylogo=”” bookreviewslug=””][/gameheader]

Kentucky is the weakest No. 3 seed and at serious risk of an early exit. The Wildcats are only 10.5-point favorites, and Troy seems to be seeing more sharp action.

However, the real leverage in fading Kentucky comes next round. Rolling with the Wildcats — for now.

[gameheader haspick=”false” picktext=”” league=”ncaab” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/ucla.png” awayname=”UCLA” awayslug=”ucla-bruins” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/uts.png” homename=”Utah State” homeslug=”utah-state-aggies” date=”No. 7 UCLA over No. 10 Utah State” time=”” network=”” bookname=”” bookprimarylogo=”” bookreviewslug=””][/gameheader]

As of Monday night, 67% of users are on UCLA, aligning with my projected spread of -4. However, the betting market has them as 5.5-point favorites, giving them a slight edge in terms of leverage.

I’m taking UCLA.

[gameheader haspick=”false” picktext=”” league=”ncaab” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/ten.png” awayname=”Tennessee Volunteers” awayslug=”tennessee-volunteers” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/wof.png” homename=”Wofford” homeslug=”wofford-terriers” date=”No. 2 Tennessee over No. 15 Wofford” time=”” network=”” bookname=”” bookprimarylogo=”” bookreviewslug=””][/gameheader]

This is a no-brainer pick.

_InlineAdBlock

Round of 32

[gameheader haspick=”false” picktext=”” league=”ncaab” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/gonz.png” awayname=”Gonzaga” awayslug=”gonzaga-bulldogs” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/hou.png” homename=”Houston” homeslug=”houston-cougars” date=”No. 8 Gonzaga over No. 1 Houston” time=”” network=”” bookname=”” bookprimarylogo=”” bookreviewslug=””][/gameheader]

This is a make-or-break spot for my bracket.

As of Monday night, 86% of users are picking Houston, but the spread could be in the 4-6 range. J’Wan Roberts is expected back for the Cougars but could still be limited with his ankle injury.

Gonzaga offers a +14% leverage score, and Houston is a 1-seed with a wide range of outcomes, making this a key decision in your bracket strategy. The Cougars offer the best leverage scores to make the Finals and win it all. The optimal approach is to either fade them early or have them win it all. There’s not much value in a middle-ground outcome.

I’m playing aggressively and taking Gonzaga here.

[gameheader haspick=”false” picktext=”” league=”ncaab” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/cle.png” awayname=”Clemson” awayslug=”clemson-tigers” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/pur.png” homename=”Purdue” homeslug=”purdue-boilermakers” date=”No. 5 Clemson over No. 4 Purdue” time=”” network=”” bookname=”” bookprimarylogo=”” bookreviewslug=””][/gameheader]

This is my only 4 vs. 5 matchup, and I show Clemson as slight favorites so I’m rolling with the Tigers.

[gameheader haspick=”false” picktext=”” league=”ncaab” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/xav.png” awayname=”Xavier” awayslug=”xavier-musketeers” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/ken.png” homename=”Kentucky” homeslug=”kentucky-wildcats” date=”No. 11 Xavier over No. 3 Kentucky” time=”” network=”” bookname=”” bookprimarylogo=”” bookreviewslug=””][/gameheader]

Kentucky is a vulnerable No. 3 seed facing a strong First Four winner. Either 11 seed has a +12% leverage score. (If Texas wins the First Four, I may swap this with Illinois.)

Either way, this is the ideal spot to knock out Kentucky. I’m going with Xavier or Illinois to beat Kentucky.

[gameheader haspick=”false” picktext=”” league=”ncaab” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/ten.png” awayname=”Tennessee Volunteers” awayslug=”tennessee-volunteers” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/ucla.png” homename=”UCLA” homeslug=”ucla-bruins” date=”No. 2 Tennessee over No. 7 UCLA” time=”” network=”” bookname=”” bookprimarylogo=”” bookreviewslug=””][/gameheader]

I rate Tennessee as the best No. 2 seed so unlike other regions, I don’t see much value in fading the Vols early.

Sweet 16

[gameheader haspick=”false” picktext=”” league=”ncaab” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/gonz.png” awayname=”Gonzaga” awayslug=”gonzaga-bulldogs” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/cle.png” homename=”Clemson” homeslug=”clemson-tigers” date=”No. 8 Gonzaga over No. 5 Clemson” time=”” network=”” bookname=”” bookprimarylogo=”” bookreviewslug=””][/gameheader]

Gonzaga would be around four-point favorites here, making them a +11% leverage play.

This is a go big or go home strategy. If you’re rolling with Gonzaga, you have to stay aggressive. If ever there was a No. 8 seed built to make a deep run, it’s this year’s Zags.

[gameheader haspick=”false” picktext=”” league=”ncaab” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/ten.png” awayname=”Tennessee Volunteers” awayslug=”tennessee-volunteers” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/xav.png” homename=”Xavier” homeslug=”xavier-musketeers” date=”No. 2 Tennessee over No. 11 Xavier” time=”” network=”” bookname=”” bookprimarylogo=”” bookreviewslug=””][/gameheader]

Tennessee advances regardless of who I have it playing.

No need to rush the pick before the First Four is played since we don’t get bonus points for early bracket submission. Once the field settles, I will see how the user pick percentage shifts and decide which team Tennessee beats here, whether it’s Xavier or Illinois.

Elite Eight

[gameheader haspick=”false” picktext=”” league=”ncaab” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/ten.png” awayname=”Tennessee Volunteers” awayslug=”tennessee-volunteers” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/gonz.png” homename=”Gonzaga” homeslug=”gonzaga-bulldogs” date=”No. 2 Tennessee over No. 8 Gonzaga” time=”” network=”” bookname=”” bookprimarylogo=”” bookreviewslug=””][/gameheader]

Gonzaga offers a +8% leverage score, so I’ll definitely make a bracket with them in the Final Four. However, in my main bracket, Tennessee makes the most sense.

We already gain a huge edge by picking Gonzaga to knock out Houston and advance to the Elite Eight. This matchup would likely be a pick ’em, but 89% of users are still taking Tennessee. Gonzaga has a brutal path, starting with a potential first-round loss to Georgia.

One of the most critical bracket decisions this year is how far to take Gonzaga. For my main entry, the best blend of sharp and contrarian is having the Bulldogs fall in the Elite Eight.

Here, I’m rolling with Tennessee to the Final Four.

_InlineAdBlock


East | West | South | Midwest | Final Four


[anchor name=”5″][/anchor]

Final Four

[gameheader haspick=”false” picktext=”” league=”ncaab” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/fla.png” awayname=”Florida” awayslug=”florida-gators” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/isu.png” homename=”Iowa State” homeslug=”iowa-state-cyclones” date=”No. 1 Florida over No. 3 Iowa State” time=”” network=”” bookname=”” bookprimarylogo=”” bookreviewslug=””][/gameheader]

Iowa State has the depth to overcome Gilbert’s injury and navigate the South region, but not being at full strength makes Florida too tough of a test here.

Florida would be around a seven-point favorite. This is where Iowa State’s run likely ends, as the matchup tilts in Florida’s favor.

[gameheader haspick=”false” picktext=”” league=”ncaab” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/dukd.png” awayname=”Duke” awayslug=”duke-blue-devils” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/ten.png” homename=”Tennessee” homeslug=”tennessee-volunteers” date=”No. 1 Duke over No. 2 Tennessee” time=”” network=”” bookname=”” bookprimarylogo=”” bookreviewslug=””][/gameheader]

Duke has a -11% leverage score here, making this an ideal spot to fade the Blue Devils, especially against Tennessee, which offers a +2% leverage score.

However, leverage score is just a guide, not something to blindly follow. At the end of the day, I’m weighing realistic outcomes.

  • I give Duke a 40% chance to make the Finals, compared to just 10% for Tennessee.
  • While I’ve made contrarian picks throughout my bracket, I’m comfortable with a fairly chalky Duke vs. Florida championship game.
  • Most of the chaos happens early but in the end, we typically see two of the best teams square off for the title.

I’m advancing Duke to the final game.

[gameheader haspick=”false” picktext=”” league=”ncaab” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/fla.png” awayname=”Florida” awayslug=”florida-gators” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/dukd.png” homename=”Duke” homeslug=”duke-blue-devils” date=”No. 1 Florida over No. 1 Duke” time=”” network=”” bookname=”” bookprimarylogo=”” bookreviewslug=””][/gameheader]

Florida offers the second-highest leverage score to win it all (+2.5%) and enters the tournament as a complete, red-hot and fully healthy team.

The Gators have a real shot at being seven-point favorites or higher in every game leading up to this one. I would have Duke as a slight one-point favorite here. I expect the Blue Devils, though, to be the most popular championship pick, which is why Florida makes more sense for my official bracket.

Also, if your pool uses a final score as a tiebreaker, be sure to reference the pScore column in my bracket builder tool to fine-tune your prediction.

Go Gators!

_InlineAdBlockRestart=4