Since 2011, there has been a trend that has left sharps incredibly profitable.
Over the past decade-plus, first-half unders have won about 60% of the time during the Round of 64 and First Four.
When expanding the scope to the entire tournament, first-half unders win about 58% of the time.
Let’s get more granular with this, though.
First-half unders for games that start at 2 p.m. ET or earlier have gone under 66% of the time when the total is fewer than 70 points. That’s an eye-popping 25% ROI since 2011. A $500 per game bettor would be up about $11,250.
For the Round of 64, here are the games with a requisite first-half total under 70 and that tip off before 2 p.m. ET. Listed is also the best market price and which sportsbook is providing it.
Maryland vs. West Virginia
Tipoff on Thursday, March 16 at 12:15 p.m. ET
- Under 64.5 (-120). BetMGM.
Virginia vs. Furman
Tipoff on Thursday, March 16 at 12:40 p.m. ET
- Under 61.5 (-115). BetMGM.
A note here that the 1:40 p.m. ET tipoff between Missouri vs. Utah State has a total over 70. If that ever dips below — unlikely — it would fit under these parameters.
Kansas vs. Howard
Tipoff on Thursday, March 16 at 2 p.m. ET
- Under 69 (-120). BetRivers.
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Michigan State vs. USC
Tipoff on Friday, March 17 at 12:15 p.m. ET
- Under 64 (-106). BetRivers.
Like the aforementioned Missouri vs. Utah State game, Xavier vs. Kennesaw State (tipoff at 12:40 p.m. ET) doesn’t fit the parameters of this system.
Baylor vs. UC Santa Barbara
Tipoff on Friday, March 17 at 1:30 p.m. ET
- Under 68 (-108). BetRivers.
Saint Mary’s vs. VCU
Tipoff on Friday, March 17 at 2 p.m. ET
- Under 56.5 (-110). Caesars.
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