There are three games on Wednesday’s NBA slate that have spreads with sharp action and big money bettors.
These games aren’t the prettiest on Wednesday’s docket, but that might be good news for you. Heavy wise-guy action on games of low magnitude often means you can extract some value without the broader public catching on.
The Action Network’s betting model also jibes with the wise guys on two of these picks.
Our model is player-level, so it factors in all the injuries and COVID-related absences across the league that have made handicapping NBA games so tricky in the last few weeks.
Read further to see what the the sharps are hammering today.
Wednesday NBA Sharp Action, Big Money
Odds and information as of Wednesday afternoon.
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Detroit Pistons vs. Charlotte Hornets
7 p.m. ET
The sharps are attacking the Hornets at -10. A ridiculous 94% of the money is on the Hornets’ spread instead of the Pistons’.
That’s a fade of the public. While retail bettors have roughly 72% of their individual bets on the Pistons to cover, just 28% of bets are on the Hornets to win by 10 or more points.
But, that 28% of Charlotte bets accounts for the aforementioned 94% of the money. That means a small minority of bettors are placing huge wagers on the Hornets to cover.
The Hornets won’t be missing anyone major for this game besides rotation player P.J. Washington, who is questionable but cleared the COVID list on Tuesday.
Meanwhile, the Pistons will be missing their leading scorer Jerami Grant along with fourth-leading scorer Kelly Olynyk and fifth-leading scorer Frank Jackson.
Starting center Isaiah Stewart will also miss this contest for load management purposes.
But, do keep in mind that this depleted roster did take down a full strength Bucks team on Monday.
Detroit was a hysterical +1100 underdog to cash that victory in, and I’ll use this as an aside to say that I wagered on that game and sometimes you need to sprinkle money on the Pistons ML, too. It averages out, I promise.
Anyway, the best price on the market for the Hornets’ spread is with FanDuel at -10 (-110).
Sharp Action | Big Money Betting Pick: Hornets -10 (FanDuel)
San Antonio Spurs vs. Boston Celtics
7:30 p.m. ET
The wise guys are targeting the Spurs spread at +7.5.
The Action Network’s tracking data indicates that a clean 96% of the money is on the Spurs to cover.
That’s despite the fact that Jayson Tatum will likely return on Wednesday from his stint on the COVID list.
To counter, though, Spurs leading scorer Dejounte Murray is likely to return after missing Tuesday’s game against the Raptors.
Don’t get me wrong, the Spurs aren’t a great team. But when the sharps, big money and betting models align, it’s often a worthwhile bet.
The Action Network’s models say the Spurs should be 6.1-point underdogs instead of 8-point dogs. That’s an edge of roughly 3.3%
The best price on the market is with PointsBet at +7.5 (-110).
Sharp Action | Big Money Betting Pick: Spurs +7.5 (PointsBet)
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
8 p.m. ET
The sharps and big money bettors are hammering the Thunder spread, which is as high as +9.
This, frankly, is a ridiculous price considering Karl-Anthony Towns and D’Angelo Russell may not play. Though both are off the COVID list now, they’re considered game-time decisions based on how they feel before the game.
That market price as it stands assumes they’ll suit up, and the sharps want to lock in that value in case one or both of those players are ruled out.
About 97% of the money is on the Thunder to cover this contest.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will return after missing just one game on the COVID list.
The Action Network’s models think the Thunder should only be 5.1-point underdogs for this matchup. That, relative to the current market high of +8.5, gives the bet an edge of just under 10%, good for an A grade.
The best price on the market is with PointsBet at +9. (-110).
Sharp Action | Big Money Betting Pick: Thunder +9 (PointsBet)