There are four games on the NBA docket for Wednesday in which The Action Network’s betting model disagrees with the market.
Our model is player-level, so it factors in all injuries and COVID-related absences across the league that have made handicapping NBA games so tricky in the last few weeks.
Here are the four underdogs our model likes for Wednesday.
NBA Wednesday Model Projection Edges
Odds and betting data last updated at 1 p.m. ET on Wednesday.
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Toronto Raptors vs. Milwaukee Bucks
8 p.m. ET
Our model indicates that the Bucks should be roughly 5.4-point favorites for this matchup.
However, the best price on the market has the Bucks at -3.5. That’s a roughly 3.3% betting edge.
That’s because head coach Mike Budenholzer will miss this contest after being placed on the COVID list Wednesday morning. That was enough to move the line from Bucks -8 to Bucks -3.5.
Pat Connaughton and Grayson Allen had also been placed on the COVID list on Tuesday but that was already priced into the Bucks’ line at -8. Remarkably, a coach being out has moved this line by 4.5 points, and our model doesn’t believe that’s a justifiable market move.
The Bucks will still have Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jrue Holiday and Khris Middleton for a contest against a middling Eastern Conference team.
The best price on the market is with DraftKings at -3.5 (-110).
Model Projection Pick: Bucks -3.5 (DraftKings).
Brooklyn Nets vs. Indiana Pacers
7:30 p.m. ET
The Action Network’s model thinks the Pacers should be just 6.4-point underdogs for this matchup.
Meanwhile, the best price on the market makes Indiana nine-point underdogs, giving you over a 4% edge.
Leading scorer Malcolm Brogdon looks poised to return for this contest from the COVID list. If he doesn’t play, don’t bet this line unless it’s Pacers +10.5 or better.
Third-leading scorer Caris Lavert will miss this contest on the COVID lis, but that has already been priced in.
Meanwhile, the Nets won’t be missing anyone due to the coronavirus.
Model Projection Pick: Pacers +9 or better if Malcolm Brogdon plays. Pacers +10.5 or better if Brogdon is out.
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Spurs vs. Celtics
8 p.m. ET
The Action Network’s models say the Spurs should be 6.1-point underdogs instead of 7.5-point dogs. That’s an edge of roughly 3.3%.
Sharps and big money bettors are also all over this contest.
The Action Network’s tracking data indicates that a clean 96% of the money is on the Spurs to cover.
That’s despite the fact that Jayson Tatum will likely return on Wednesday from his stint on the COVID list.
To counter, though, Spurs leading scorer Dejounte Murray is likely to return after missing Tuesday’s game against the Raptors.
Don’t get me wrong, the Spurs aren’t a great team. But when the sharps, big money and betting models align, it’s often a worthwhile bet.
Sharps, Big Money, Model Projection Pick: Spurs +7.5
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
8 p.m. ET
The Action Network’s models think the Thunder should only be 5.1-point underdogs for this matchup. That, relative to the current market high of +9, gives this bet an edge of about 10%, good for an A grade — the best on today’s NBA docket.
The sharps and big money bettors are also hammering the Thunder spread at +9.
This, frankly, is a ridiculous price considering Karl-Anthony Towns and D’Angelo Russell may not play. Though both are off the COVID list now, they’re considered game-time decisions based on how they feel before the game.
That market price as it stands assumes they’ll suit up, and the sharps want to lock in that value in case one or both of those players are ruled out.
About 97% of the money is on the Thunder to cover this contest.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will return after missing just one game on the COVID list.
The best price on the market is with PointsBet at +9 (-110).
Sharp Action, Big Money Betting Pick: Thunder +9 (PointsBet).