Warriors vs. Mavericks Odds, Pick | NBA Betting Prediction (Wednesday, March 22)

Golden State Warriors vs. Dallas Mavericks Odds

As long as both Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic suit up for Warriors vs. Mavericks, this contest — and its weighty playoff implications — is the game to watch on Wednesday night.

Irving and Doncic are both nursing injuries and questionable on the injury report, but the importance of this game will surely have both itching to play. The Warriors hold the last guaranteed playoff spot at the No. 6 seed, sitting one-half game up on the No. 8 Mavericks. Just 1 1/2 games separates the No. 6 seed and No. 12 seed in a log jammed Western Conference playoff picture.

And for massive games like this, typically the market is rather efficient, with hundreds of thousands of bettors across the landscape making trades.

But Action Network’s proprietary betting algorithms think differently for this contest. Those models clearly indicate that the Warriors vs. Mavericks spread has been mispriced.

Our models consider dozens of datapoints for every NBA matchup, incorporating rest, stylistic differences, injuries, coaching, form and more. They incorporate more qualitative factors, too, and solicit opinions from a host of experts.

The algorithms then assign fair-value lines for each game.

For Warriors vs. Mavericks, one line in particular differs heavily from the marketplace.

Warriors vs. Mavericks NBA Odds, Prediction

Action Network’s proprietary betting algorithms indicate the Mavericks should be favorites tonight as Irving faces the Warriors for the first time with his new team.

The Mavericks should be about -0.2 on the spread, the models say, which is relative to a market wide price of +2.5 or +3.

At a market-best price of Mavericks +3 (-110) at PointsBet, the models assign that pick a roughly 4.5% betting edge. That means you’ll receive a 4.5% discount from the fair-value price by betting on the Mavericks at +3.

Another way to think about it: you’re accumulating 4.5% of positive expected value the second after you make that pick, according to our models.

Do keep in mind that our algorithms work best when you use the same unit sizing for as many games as possible, over a long sample size.

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