There are inefficient lines for both Warriors vs. Suns and Rockets vs. Mavericks on Wednesday night.
While all eyeballs might be on the 2023 Western Conference Finals preview, value on games with limited attention bodes better for you, the reader.
Contests with limited magnitude lend themselves to more inefficient lines, and that’s where the most value is gleaned in the long run.
For Warriors vs. Suns, the Action Network’s proprietary data indicates value on the over/under.
Meanwhile, that same data is targeting the spread for Rockets vs. Mavericks.
But the Action Network also has a proprietary betting system trained for the total for Rockets vs. Mavs.
The system has returned 11% on investment since 2005 and has gone 381-286-8 (57%) over that time frame. It considers a variety of factors proprietary to the Action Network.
A $100 bettor that exclusively bets this system has earned $7,760 in total.
Warriors vs. Suns, Rockets vs. Mavericks Predictions
For Warriors vs. Suns, value is indicated by sharp and big moneyed action. The difference between the amount of money on a line and how many bets on the line is paramount to this calculus.
The more the money % is relative to bet %, the more value a line has. That indicates a sizable group of big moneyed bettors is putting heavy action on that line.
For the under for Warriors vs. Suns, the bet % is 25%, but the money % is 57. So, while 25% of the total bets across the market are on the under, 57% of the money is also on the same side. There’s a ton of money flowing in on that under.
For Rockets vs. Mavs, the same principle is occurring for the Rockets spread +6.5. Over 88% of the money is on this line compared to just 61% of the total bets. The 27% difference competes with the 32% difference found in Warriors vs. Suns.
The total is where we see the aforementioned 11% ROI. When the under has 40% of the bets or fewer — but the total has gone down from open — the under has won 57% of the time since 2005.
The game also needs to be a division game, where teams are familiar with each other.
Picks: Warriors vs. Suns Under 227.5| Rockets vs. Mavericks Under 218.5 | Rockets +6.5
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