There are two games on the NBA docket for Tuesday in which The Action Network’s betting model disagrees with the market.
Our model is player-level, so it factors in all injuries and COVID-related absences across the league that have made handicapping NBA games so tricky in the last few weeks.
Here are the two underdogs our model likes for Tuesday.
NBA Tuesday Model Projection Edges
Odds and betting data last updated at 12 p.m. ET on Tuesday.
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Phoenix Suns vs. New Orleans Pelicans
8 p.m. ET
Our models indicate that the Pelicans should only be about 4.9-point underdogs for this matchup.
However, the market consensus is pricing this at Pelicans +7.5. That’s a roughly 6% betting edge, good for a B grade from our model.
And while the public is targeting the over for this matchup, the sharp and big money bettors are fading them. You can read more about how the wise guys are betting against the public on the under in this story below.
Suns coach Monty Williams will return from the COVID list after he was placed there on Dec. 27. That may open the door for Jae Crowder and, more importantly, Deandre Ayton, to return as well. The two were placed on the health and protocol list on similar dates.
The Pelicans are not missing any major personnel besides Zion Williamson, who has yet to suit up this season.
The Suns have gone 2-2 straight up and 2-2 against the spread since their coronavirus issues arose.
The best price on the market is with PointsBet at Pelicans +7.5.
Model Projection Pick: Pelicans +7.5 (PointsBet).
Sacramento Kings vs. Los Angeles Lakers
10:30 p.m. ET
The Action Network’s models think the Kings should be just 4.3-point underdogs for this matchup.
The sharps have absolutely nuked this line. About 99% of the money is on the Kings spread at the consensus figure of +6.5.
That’s down from its open at +7.5. Again, ninety-nine percent of the total money is on the Kings to cover today.
Fading the Lakers this season and last has been a sharp tradition. The market consistently overvalues them even as they continue to limp through the regular season.
The Kings are 3-2 straight up and 3-2 against the spread versus the Lakers over the last two seasons.
Our models indicate you’re getting about 6% value at +7, which is the best price you can get on the market. That line is available on FanDuel. Every other book is pricing this contest at Kings +6.5 as of Tuesday afternoon.
The Lakers will be without Anthony Davis, who suffered a sprained MCL last month. LeBron James is probable for this game with a lingering injury while Avery Bradley is probable with a cervical strain.
Meanwhile, the Kings will be without starting center Richaun Holmes after he was placed on the COVID list on New Year’s. The Kings beat the Heat and covered in the only game they’ve played without him.
Rotation player Terence Davis is also questionable with an ankle injury.
Model Projection Pick: Kings +7 (FanDuel)
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