Magic vs. Cavaliers Odds, Pick
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Here’s everything you need to know about Magic vs. Cavaliers on Tuesday, April 30 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today’s game.
The Magic seemingly took back control of their opening-round series against the Cavaliers with a commanding win in Game 4, and will now head back to Cleveland looking to take a pivotal Game 5 as underdogs.
Is Cleveland out of answers after failing miserably on both ends of the floor in Orlando? Or might the favorites have a way in here at home?
Let’s get right into my Magic vs. Cavaliers pick.
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Well, that was some turnaround. Orlando’s vaunted defense showed up in a big way through the first two games of the series, but its offense was nowhere to be found.
Then, suddenly, some 3s started falling and this offense found a plethora of ways in against Cleveland’s defense. The Magic have shot the 3 at a solid 39.6% clip over the past two games, according to Cleaning the Glass, and have mixed that in with nearly 60% shooting from the mid-range and a passable, yet middling, 64.4% conversion rate at the rim. This was certainly a stunning development considering the Magic struggled on jumpers all season.
Those inefficient jump shots may cease falling given the season-long trends, but the Cavaliers certainly didn’t do a great job of defending the 3 this season. If you’re looking for something sustainable about those two games, the 3-point shot is certainly what I’d lean on here. It’s also worth noting that the Magic ranked ninth in outside shooting from March until the end of the regular season.
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It all fell apart for the defense-oriented Cavaliers in Orlando as they allowed 134.4 points per 100 possessions in Game 3 and 120.4 per 100 in Game 4. They were also crushed on the glass by a huge margin after winning the battle on the boards through two games, though the warning signs were certainly there after the Magic closed the gap from Game 1 to Game 2.
That’s somewhere you’d definitely expect the Magic to win, given they grabbed the fourth-highest percentage of available rebounds in the regular season — 11 spots ahead of the Cavaliers. Where you’d expect the Cavaliers to do a better job in this series is at the rim — where they can really kill Orlando’s spirits.
Cleveland certainly leaned on its excellent front-court defense through two games, posting a fantastic 51.9% defense, before defending at a 64.4% clip over the next two games. That number is pretty close to the Cavs’ top-five mark for the regular season and should theoretically be enough to win this series, but they’ll have to shore up that 3-point defense at home.
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These teams both have excellent frontcourts, which is why this first-round matchup promised to be a close affair, even if it didn’t feature much offense. The Magic certainly bucked the trend with a barrage of 3s over the past two games, but returning to Cleveland may change things a bit.
The Magic were worse by half a percentage point from deep on the road this season, but the Cavaliers were actually significantly worse in defending the 3 at home and allowed nearly 40% shooting to the Magic in the season series.
My initial inclination here was to back the Cavaliers, but I think there is more than enough here to believe in Orlando’s shooting. They were inside the top-10 from 3 in March and April and have a huge edge there as Cleveland has struggled against the 3 all season.
Additionally, the Magic are beginning to run away with the rebounding battle. I like them to win this game, so I’ll take the points.
Pick: Magic +5.5 (-120)
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