There are two spreads on Tuesday’s NBA slate that sharps and big money bettors are targeting.
Each of these bets fade the retail bettors.
So, which lines are the wise guys are hammering today? Let’s get right into it.
NBA Expert Spread Picks
Odds and information as of Tuesday afternoon.
Brooklyn Nets vs. Phoenix Suns
10 p.m. ET
The sharp and big money bettors are on the Nets to cover Tuesday. About 54% of the smart money were on the Nets when this line opened at +7.5. It has since dipped to a market-low of Nets +5.5.
Still, there’s value there, according to The Action Network’s projections. Those projections say that the Nets should only be roughly 3.8-point favorites. So, their market-best price at Nets +6 gives you an edge of about 5.5%, good for a B grade.
A B grade or better is required to tail a pick solely based on our projections.
In addition, a PRO system with a 54% win rate and 4% return on investment is also on the Nets to cover. While that 4% ROI isn’t our best NBA algorithm, it’s still another data point that backs up this pick.
For reference, the stock market’s annual average return is 8%.
Our models are player-level, so they factor in all injuries and COVID-related absences across the league that have made handicapping NBA games so tricky over the past month.
So, for instance, it has factored in that Kevin Durant, LaMarcus Aldridge and Joe Harris will miss contest for the Nets.
Meanwhile, Jae Crowder and Deandre Ayton are questionable. Both haven’t played in over a week.
Sharp Angle: Nets +6 or better.
Denver Nuggets vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
8 p.m. ET
While the retail bettors are all on the Timberwolves to cover Tuesday, the sharp and big money bettors are siding with Denver.
That’s despite the fact that Nikola Jokic is questionable with right toe soreness. The smart bettors are banking on the former MVP to play.
About 82% of the smart money on Denver. That’s despite line movement that has forced this game from its open at Nuggets +2 to its market-high of Nuggets +4.5.
About 61% of the public are on Minnesota on account of Jokic’s potential absence.
Sharp Angle: Nuggets +4.5 or better.
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