There are four games on the NBA docket for Wednesday in which the The Action Network’s model disagrees with the market.
Our model is player-level, so it factors in all injuries and COVID-related absences across the league that have made handicapping NBA games so tricky in the last few weeks.
Here are the four underdogs our model likes on Monday.
NBA Wednesday Model Projection Edges
Odds and betting data last updated at 12 p.m. ET on Wednesday.
New York Knicks vs. Detroit Pistons
7 p.m. ET
The Action Network’s models indicate that the Pistons should be 4.2-point underdogs for this matchup.
Meanwhile, the Pistons are +7.5 across the market. That means there’s a roughly 9.5% edge here, good for an A+ grade from our model.
The line had opened at Pistons +5.5 but moved on a account of COVID issues in the Detroit camp. Rotation players Isaiah Stewart, Cory Joseph and Killian Hayes will miss this contest after being placed on the COVID list last week.
The Knicks aren’t missing anyone major besides Derrick Rose, who underwent ankle surgery earlier this month.
Still, our models think the market has moved too far in the Knicks’ direction.
Model Projection Pick: Pistons +7.5
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Chicago Bulls vs. Atlanta Hawks
8 p.m. ET
Our models indicate that the Hawks should be roughly 5.4-point underdogs for this matchup.
But, the market is pricing this as high as Hawks +8.5 at books like FanDuel and BetMGM. That’s a roughly 7% betting edge, good for a B+ from our model.
Keep in mind that two of the Hawks’ four top scorers in John Collins and Bogdan Bogdanovic will miss this game on the COVID list. Kevin Huerter is also out.
But, leading scorer Trae Young will suit up for this contest.
Meanwhile, Lonzo Ball will miss Wednesday’s game after being placed on the COVID list.
Model Projection Pick: Hawks +8.5 (FanDuel, BetMGM)
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Phoenix Suns
9 p.m. ET
The Thunder look awful compared to the Suns. But good teams win. Great teams cover.
Our models give the Thunder at +15 a roughly 4% edge, good for a B- grade. The models say the Thunder should be 11.2-point underdogs instead of 15.
Oklahoma City are missing rookie Josh Giddey and rotation player Derrick Favors due to the coronavirus.
Meanwhile, the Suns are without starting center Deandre Ayton and Jae Crowder due to COVID.
The best price on the market is with PointsBet at Thunder +15.
Model Projection Pick: Thunder +15 (PointsBet).
Utah Jazz vs. Portland Trail Blazers
10 p.m. ET
The Action Network’s models give the Blazers at +7 an A+ grade and project that Portland should be just 2.8-point underdogs for this matchup.
That’s despite the fact that only 2% of the money is on the Blazers’ spread. So you can fade the public on this one — or even wait until Portland’s spread moves closer to +8.
The Blazers are missing two of their top four scorers in CJ McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic. McCollum is recovering from a right lung injury while Nurkic is on the COVID list.
Meanwhile, the Jazz will be missing their best player, Donovan Mitchell.
The consensus across the market is at Blazers +7, including at DraftKings, FanDuel, PointsBet and Caesars.
Model Projection Pick: Blazers +7
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