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NBA Props for Saturday, January 4: Picks for Bam Adebayo, Jalen Duren

We have a total of three NBA props for this Saturday, and our staff of basketball betting experts is focused on some key players or teams who could be in line for noteworthy performances to start the weekend.

Read below for our NBA prop picks for Saturday, January 4.

NBA Props for Saturday, January 4

  • Bam Adebayo
  • Jalen Duren
  • Hawks-Clippers First Quarter Spread

[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Bam Adebayo Over 17.5 Points (-120)” subtext=”Jazz vs. Heat, 8:00 p.m. ET” center=”false” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nba/100/mia.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/odds/miami-heat” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”” trailinglink=”” trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]

By Charlie Wright

Bam Adebayo has taken on an expanded role as a distributor for the Heat this season, but he’s reverted to more of a scoring role when Jimmy Butler is out.

It’s the inverse of last season, when Adebayo would step up as a distributor (+4.1% assist rate bump) any time Butler was on the bench.

Adebayo has seen a team-leading 1.9% usage rate boost with Butler off the floor. His assist rate has gone down (-1.8%), but his shot attempts and scoring have increased.

Adebayo is averaging 17.7 points on 14.3 shots and 5.3 free-throw attempts in the 10 games Butler has missed. In 21 games with Butler, Adebayo has averaged 15.1 points on 12.9 shots and 3.8 free throw attempts.

Utah is an excellent matchup for Bam. The Jazz rank dead last in defensive rating and 28th in points allowed per game. They are allowing the 3rd-most points per game to centers, and allowing the 9th-most points per game in the paint.

Adebayo is shooting more 3-pointers this season, but he’s still scored nearly 60% of his points from inside the paint. His 3-point shot hasn’t been effective at increased volume, but Utah could get him back on track.

The Jazz allow the most made 3-pointers per game to centers.

Pick: Bam Adebayo Over 17.5 Points (-120)

[expertpickswidget league=”nba” gameid=”233110″ date=”20250104″ week=”” seasontype=””][/expertpickswidget]

[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Jalen Duren Over 8.5 Points (-120)” subtext=”Timberwolves vs. Pistons, 7:00 p.m. ET” center=”false” logo1url=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/343538_pistons.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/odds/detroit-pistons” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”” trailinglink=”” trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]

By Jim Turvey

Yes, the Timberwolves have a strong defense, but this number is too low.

Jalen Duren is averaging a full point higher and has cleared this in 19 of 31 games, including four straight.

He has also grown in his usage throughout the season, with his two most recent games being his second and third-highest field goal attempt outings.

Jaden Ivey being off the court didn’t hurt him at all in his first game without the guard. In fact, Duren’s usage was higher than his season average.

Pick: Jalen Duren Over 8.5 Points (-120)

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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Clippers 1Q -1.5 (-120)” subtext=”Hawks vs. Clippers, 10:30 p.m. ET” center=”false” logo1url=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/07/los-angeles-clippers-logo-updated-2023.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/odds/los-angeles-clippers” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”” trailinglink=”” trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]

By Charlie Wright

I’ve faded the Clippers a couple times this week given their schedule. They had 3 road games in 4 games and predictably struggled.

Now, they’re back home after a day off to face an Atlanta team facing similar issues.

The Hawks are playing their 3rd road game in 4 days. They didn’t have to travel far for this one after playing the Lakers last night, but they were in Denver on Wednesday and Toronto on Sunday.

LA ranks 6th in 1st-quarter net rating (5.0). It’s heavily weighted to their work at home, where they have a 12.0 net rating. Only the Cavs, Celtics, and Grizzlies have been better at home in the opening period.

The Clippers’ primary starting lineup of James Harden/Norman Powell/Kris Dunn/Ivica Zubac/Derrick Jones Jr. has an excellent 9.2 net rating this season, largely due to a 101.7 defensive rating.

Kawhi Leonard could make his season debut tonight, bumping Dunn from the mix. He’d be a nice boost on the offensive end.

Atlanta has been a bottom 10 team in the 1st quarter (-4.2 net rating). They’ve been even worse on the road (-7.4). It’s a difficult scheduling spot for the Hawks, and they’re in an arena that’s been tough on opponents (shoutout to Steve Balmer and The Wall).

Pick: Clippers First Quarter -1.5 (-120)

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