There are three games on the NBA docket Sunday in which The Action Network’s betting model disagrees with the market.
Our models are player-level, so they factor in all injuries and COVID-related absences across the league that have made handicapping NBA games so tricky over the past month and a half.
Here are the three underdogs our models like on the slate.
NBA Model Projection Edges
Odds and betting data last updated at 11 a.m. ET on Sunday.
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Pistons vs. Timberwolves
3:30 p.m. ET
Our model indicates the Pistons should be just 9.1-point underdogs for this matchup. However, the market-best price is at Pistons +12. That’s a roughly 6% betting edge, good for a B grade overall from our models.
Our projections indicate that a B grade or above is necessary to tail our picks.
The Pistons’ Cade Cunningham is questionable with a hip injury, so keep an eye on his status before you lay money on this game.
The Timberwolves won’t be missing anyone notable. While D’Angelo Russell is still recovering from a leg injury, he’s still expected to play.
Model Projection Pick: Pistons +12 or better if Cunningham plays.
Boston Celtics vs. Orlando Magic
6 p.m. ET
The Action Network’s NBA models think the Magic should be just 6.7-point underdogs.
The consensus market price prices Orlando at +9.5 dogs. That’s a roughly 7% edge, good for an B+ grade from our models.
Both teams have no new injuries of note.
Model Projection Pick: Magic +9.5 or better.
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New Orleans Pelicans vs. Houston Rockets
7 p.m. ET
The Action Network’s NBA models think the Rockets should be just 3.7-point underdogs.
Houston are 5.5-point underdogs across the market against a below-average Pelicans team. That’s about a 4.5% betting edge, good for a B- grade from our models.
Josh Hart is questionable for New Orleans. Meanwhile, there are no new injuries to report from Houston’s camp.
Model Projection Pick: Rockets +5.5 or better.