NBA Playoffs Best Bets, Picks, Predictions for Wednesday, May 28

The conference round of the NBA Playoffs resumes with one standalone matchup on Wednesday night, as Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals between the Thunder and Timberwolves takes center stage at 8:30 p.m. ET on ABC.

Our staff of basketball betting experts dug into the latest odds and identified 6 NBA picks for tonight’s contest. Continue below for our NBA best bets and predictions for Wednesday, May 28.

NBA Playoffs Best Bets, Picks, Predictions: Wednesday, May 28

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Game	Time (ET)	Pick
[teammatchup link=”#1″ firstfullname=”Minnesota Timberwolves” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/nba-updated-logo-minnesota-timberwolves.png” secondfullname=”Oklahoma City Thunder” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nba/100/okc.png”][/teammatchup]	8:30 p.m.	Nickeil Alexander-Walker Over 9.5 Points
[teammatchup link=”#2″ firstfullname=”Minnesota Timberwolves” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/nba-updated-logo-minnesota-timberwolves.png” secondfullname=”Oklahoma City Thunder” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nba/100/okc.png”][/teammatchup]	8:30 p.m.	Jalen Williams Under 5.5 Assists
[teammatchup link=”#3″ firstfullname=”Minnesota Timberwolves” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/nba-updated-logo-minnesota-timberwolves.png” secondfullname=”Oklahoma City Thunder” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nba/100/okc.png”][/teammatchup]	8:30 p.m.	Thunder 3Q -1.5
[teammatchup link=”#4″ firstfullname=”Minnesota Timberwolves” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/nba-updated-logo-minnesota-timberwolves.png” secondfullname=”Oklahoma City Thunder” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nba/100/okc.png”][/teammatchup]	8:30 p.m.	Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 40.5 PA
[teammatchup link=”#5″ firstfullname=”Minnesota Timberwolves” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/nba-updated-logo-minnesota-timberwolves.png” secondfullname=”Oklahoma City Thunder” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nba/100/okc.png”][/teammatchup]	8:30 p.m.	Isaiah Hartenstein Under 16.5 PRA
[teammatchup link=”#6″ firstfullname=”Minnesota Timberwolves” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/nba-updated-logo-minnesota-timberwolves.png” secondfullname=”Oklahoma City Thunder” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nba/100/okc.png”][/teammatchup]	8:30 p.m.	Isaiah Hartenstein Under 9.5 PA
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.

[anchor name=”1″][/anchor]

[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Timberwolves vs. Thunder”][/subheader]

[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Nickeil Alexander-Walker Over 9.5 Points (-102)” league=”nba” awaylogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/nba-updated-logo-minnesota-timberwolves.png” awayname=”Minnesota Timberwolves” awayslug=”minnesota-timberwolves” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nba/100/okc.png” homename=”Oklahoma City Thunder” homeslug=”oklahoma-city-thunder” date=”Wednesday, May 28″ time=”8:30 p.m. ET” network=”ESPN” bookname=”FanDuel” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/122955_FanDuelSportsBook@1x.jpg” bookreviewslug=”fanduel”][/gameheader]

By Joe Dellera

Let’s go back to the well on this one and back Nickeil Alexander-Walker once again.

The Thunder are selling out defensively against Anthony Edwards, forcing anyone but him to beat them.

NAW played a huge role for Minnesota and has seen his minutes climb as he contributes meaningful minutes on both sides of the floor.

NAW has scored 8, 17, 12, and 23 points against OKC this series. He played a series high 29 minutes last time out and he’s been a crucial piece of Minnesota’s rotation.

He can score off the bounce or as a cutting threat and he’s a sniper from beyond the arc as well. I’ll back him in Game 5.

Pick: Nickeil Alexander-Walker Over 9.5 Points (-102)

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[teammatchup link=”#1″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Minnesota Timberwolves” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/nba-updated-logo-minnesota-timberwolves.png” secondfullname=”Oklahoma City Thunder” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nba/100/okc.png”][/teammatchup]

[teammatchup link=”#2″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Minnesota Timberwolves” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/nba-updated-logo-minnesota-timberwolves.png” secondfullname=”Oklahoma City Thunder” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nba/100/okc.png”][/teammatchup]

[teammatchup link=”#3″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Minnesota Timberwolves” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/nba-updated-logo-minnesota-timberwolves.png” secondfullname=”Oklahoma City Thunder” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nba/100/okc.png”][/teammatchup]

[teammatchup link=”#4″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Minnesota Timberwolves” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/nba-updated-logo-minnesota-timberwolves.png” secondfullname=”Oklahoma City Thunder” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nba/100/okc.png”][/teammatchup]

[teammatchup link=”#5″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Minnesota Timberwolves” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/nba-updated-logo-minnesota-timberwolves.png” secondfullname=”Oklahoma City Thunder” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nba/100/okc.png”][/teammatchup]

[teammatchup link=”#6″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Minnesota Timberwolves” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/nba-updated-logo-minnesota-timberwolves.png” secondfullname=”Oklahoma City Thunder” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nba/100/okc.png”][/teammatchup]

[anchor name=”2″][/anchor]

[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Timberwolves vs. Thunder”][/subheader]

[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Jalen Williams Under 5.5 Assists (-145)” league=”nba” awaylogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/nba-updated-logo-minnesota-timberwolves.png” awayname=”Minnesota Timberwolves” awayslug=”minnesota-timberwolves” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nba/100/okc.png” homename=”Oklahoma City Thunder” homeslug=”oklahoma-city-thunder” date=”Wednesday, May 28″ time=”8:30 p.m. ET” network=”ESPN” bookname=”ESPN BET” bookprimarylogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/11/ESPNBET-rect-2colorway-e1700601975338.png” bookreviewslug=”espn-bet”][/gameheader]

By Michael Arinze

Jalen Williams had his best playoff performance in Game 4, scoring 34 points (13-of-29) while sinking six of his nine 3-point attempts.

The Thunder forward also chipped in with five assists, which is right in line with his season average (5.1).

During the playoffs, he’s averaging 5.3 assists, so there’s a clear level of consistency with his game.

His assists prop for Game 5 is available at 5.5 — a number he has exceeded in only 35% of his games this season. Moreover, if we look at his last 20 games, he covered this mark on only four occasions (20%).

Against the Timberwolves, he surpassed 5.5 assists in just three of their last 12 meetings.

For a player with very few outliers in the assists category, bookmakers have no choice but to adjust the juice on a prop that’s correctly priced at 5.5.

However, he has a median of five for the season, which makes the under even more likely to be the right side.

Lastly, in his last seven games against a top-10 defense in terms of assists allowed, Williams has stayed under 5.5, posting a median of four.

Therefore, this under still offers value, even with the odds juiced to -145.

Pick: Jalen Williams Under 5.5 Assists (-145)

[anchor name=”3″][/anchor]

[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Timberwolves vs. Thunder”][/subheader]

[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Thunder 3rd Quarter -1.5 (-115)” league=”nba” awaylogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/nba-updated-logo-minnesota-timberwolves.png” awayname=”Minnesota Timberwolves” awayslug=”minnesota-timberwolves” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nba/100/okc.png” homename=”Oklahoma City Thunder” homeslug=”oklahoma-city-thunder” date=”Wednesday, May 28″ time=”8:30 p.m. ET” network=”ESPN” bookname=”Fanatics Sportsbook” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/542724_Fanatics-banner-logo.png” bookreviewslug=”fanatics-sportsbook”][/gameheader]

By Bryan Fonseca

The Thunder are the best third quarter team in the NBA. And in the playoffs, they’ve shown why several times.

Oklahoma City covered in the first half against Minnesota in both Games 1 and 2, leading by no fewer than eight points at halftime, and still managed to outpace the Wolves by 14 points each time.

I think this game could get away from Minnesota, specifically in the second half.

Maybe there actually is some carry over to their shooting on the road, and maybe Anthony Edwards and or Julius Randle respond in kind.

However, my expectation is that the Thunder pull away, creating turnovers, in which they often do at home, especially coming out for the second half, en route to a win.

But even if we get a desperate Minnesota first half, I’d expect OKC to answer in the third quarter.

Pick: Thunder 3rd Quarter -1.5 (-115)

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[anchor name=”4″][/anchor]

[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Timberwolves vs. Thunder”][/subheader]

[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 40.5 Points + Assists (-105)” league=”nba” awaylogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/nba-updated-logo-minnesota-timberwolves.png” awayname=”Minnesota Timberwolves” awayslug=”minnesota-timberwolves” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nba/100/okc.png” homename=”Oklahoma City Thunder” homeslug=”oklahoma-city-thunder” date=”Wednesday, May 28″ time=”8:30 p.m. ET” network=”ESPN” bookname=”BetMGM” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/779359_BetMGM800x200@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”betmgm”][/gameheader]

By Joe Dellera

Shai has absolutely cooked the Wolves this season, and aside from the blowout loss, he has carried that consistency into the playoffs as well.

Shai has averaged 39 Points + Assists in this series and that’s with the 20 PA performance pulling down the average.

He’s coming off a 40 and 10 performance in Game 4 and the potentials are popping for Shai. He’s averaging 8.3 on 13 potentials this series.

The scoring is also there, as Minnesota has been unable to slow him down getting to the free throw line, and he continues to break down defenders one-on-one. If they throw a double-team at him, he’s finding the open man.

This is a closeout game and Shai has the chance to put a stamp on his ticket to the Finals. I expect a big performance from him tonight.

Pick: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 40.5 Points + Assists (-105)

[anchor name=”5″][/anchor]

[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Timberwolves vs. Thunder”][/subheader]

[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Isaiah Hartenstein Under 16.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-130)” league=”nba” awaylogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/nba-updated-logo-minnesota-timberwolves.png” awayname=”Minnesota Timberwolves” awayslug=”minnesota-timberwolves” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nba/100/okc.png” homename=”Oklahoma City Thunder” homeslug=”oklahoma-city-thunder” date=”Wednesday, May 28″ time=”8:30 p.m. ET” network=”ESPN” bookname=”Fanatics Sportsbook” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/542724_Fanatics-banner-logo.png” bookreviewslug=”fanatics-sportsbook”][/gameheader]

By Michael Fiddle

Hartenstein has taken on a vastly reduced role this series – to somewhat of a surprise, going against a team with three bigs and a formidable frontcourt.

The Thunder are choosing to beat them with speed and is moving Chet to the lone big on the court, sometimes playing with no bigs at all.

Hartenstein should maintain his role for the Game 5, which makes hitting this line difficult unless he is uber-efficient in limited minutes.

This is a fade of iHart’s potential volume.

Pick: Isaiah Hartenstein Under 16.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-130)

[anchor name=”6″][/anchor]

[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Timberwolves vs. Thunder”][/subheader]

[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Isaiah Hartenstein Under 9.5 Points + Assists (-130)” league=”nba” awaylogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/nba-updated-logo-minnesota-timberwolves.png” awayname=”Minnesota Timberwolves” awayslug=”minnesota-timberwolves” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nba/100/okc.png” homename=”Oklahoma City Thunder” homeslug=”oklahoma-city-thunder” date=”Wednesday, May 28″ time=”8:30 p.m. ET” network=”ESPN” bookname=”BetMGM” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/779359_BetMGM800x200@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”betmgm”][/gameheader]

By Charlie Wright

With both teams playing smaller, Hartenstein has faced similar playing time concerns. He played a postseason-low 16 minutes in Game 4.

He hasn’t started the 2nd half in back-to-back games. Isaiah Joe got the nod in the 2nd half of Game 3, and Alex Caruso started the 2nd half of Game 4.

Hartenstein had a productive Game 1, but he ranks dead last on the team in usage rate the past 3 games (9.8%).

He’s averaging 1 assist on 1.8 potential assists in the conference finals.

The rebounding has still been solid, which is why I’m going Points + Assists instead of Points + Rebounds + Assists.

Hartenstein grabbed 6 rebounds on 12 rebound chances last game, despite the minimal playing time.

He could have a big game on the glass in a limited role, especially if Minnesota finally starts missing some shots.

The floor is low on the offensive end though.

Pick: Isaiah Hartenstein Under 9.5 Points + Assists (-130)

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