NBA Player Prop & Pick
Gabe Vincent, Under 14.5 Points + Assists
| Odds | Vincent u14.5 PTS + AST (-115) |
| Time | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| Books Available | DraftKings |
As the Heat continue their unassuming march through the playoffs, the national audience has been clued into the stable of complementary players that Erik Spoelstra and his staff have developed, to pair alongside stars Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo.
One of those role players is point guard Gabe Vincent. And despite a strong Game 1 (15 points and 2 assists), I’m looking to fade the fourth-year pro on his points and assists line for Game 2.
While technically bearing the label of point guard, Vincent’s primary function in the Heat offense is on secondary actions. Half of Vincent’s points in these playoffs have been via the spot-up shot, dribble hand-off, or coming off a screen.
The Celtics defended secondary actions really well this season, ranking in the top five of shot frequency allowed and points off of these play types. Vincent did capitalize on his limited opportunities in Game 1, making four of his six shots, including shooting 3-of-5 from deep. In Game 2, I expect similar shot volume, but Vincent’s shot making should regress to the mean.
I’m tacking on assists here too – Vincent only incurred an 11% usage rate in Game 1, with only 18 front court touches and 3 potential assists. Butler, Adebayo and Kyle Lowry are all used as the main facilitators in this offense.
I have Vincent projected at about 9 points and 3 assists tonight. I’d comfortably play this line down to -130.
Pick: Gabe Vincent u14.5 PTS + AST (-115)
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