We have a total of three NBA player props for this Monday, and our staff of basketball betting experts is focused on some key players who could be in line for noteworthy performances in tonight’s contests.
Read below for our NBA player prop picks for Monday, March 17.
NBA Player Props for Monday, March 17.
- Mitchell Robinson
- Jaren Jackson
- Mikal Bridges
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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Mitchell Robinson Under 10.5 Points, Rebounds, & Assists (-115)” subtext=”Heat vs Knicks, 7:30 p.m. ET” center=”false” logo1url=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/740173_58419cc8a6515b1e0ad75a67.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/odds/new-york-knicks” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”” trailinglink=”” trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]
Robinson has failed to make much of an impact since returning from an extended injury absence. He’s averaging 4 points, 4.3 rebounds, and 0.4 assists across 7 games. He’s averaged just 15 minutes per game and hasn’t crossed 20 minutes in a game yet.
Robinson has averaged 7.8 rebound chances in 6 games with Second Spectrum tracking available. He’s facing competition on the glass from Karl-Anthony Towns and Josh Hart. He’s also struggled to get looks on the offensive end. Robinson has only taken 5 shots over the past 3 games.
The main change in that span is the absence of Jalen Brunson. Robinson has seen a 3% usage rate bump with Brunson on the floor this season. He’s scored 75% of his points with Brunson in the game. The sample size is small, of course, but the results make sense. With his point guard sidelined Robinson has largely been ignored on offense.
Miami is 12th in defensive rating and 28th in pace. They’ve allowed the 10th-fewest rebounds over the past 10 games. Miami has held centers to the 6th-fewest points per game and the 5th-fewest assists per game. It’s a subpar matchup all around.
Pick: Mitchell Robinson Under 10.5 Points, Rebounds, & Assists (-115)
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Jaren Jackson Over 24.5 Points (-113)” subtext=”Grizzlies vs Kings, 10:o0 p.m. ET” center=”false” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nba/100/mem.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/odds/memphis-grizzlies” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”” trailinglink=”” trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]
By Kyle Murray
Jackson suffered a pretty brutal-looking ankle injury a few weeks ago when I had my biggest prop bet of the season on him, and I am looking to collect on some of those losses here. He has been back for 2 games, but he ramped all the way back up to 33 minutes last time out.
With Ja Morant out again and this game having a close 3-point spread, Jackson should be in line for 32+ minutes and massive usage again. I have him projected for 28.7 points.
Pick: Jaren Jackson Over 24.5 Points (-113)
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Mikal Bridges Under 3.5 Rebounds (+135)” subtext=”Heat vs Knicks, 7:30 p.m. ET” center=”false” logo1url=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/740173_58419cc8a6515b1e0ad75a67.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/odds/new-york-knicks” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”” trailinglink=”” trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]
Bridges has been playing well recently, but this number is a bit too high.
The matchup isn’t a good one, with the Heat being bottom of the league in pace this season and a below-average rebounding matchup. The spread is sitting at 7.5 here, meaning there is a real chance of a blowout in this spot.
RotoGrinders has Bridges projected for .7 rebounds under this number, making this a great EV bet at big plus odds.
Pick: Mikal Bridges Under 3.5 Rebounds (+135)
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