We have a total of three NBA player props for this Wednesday, and our staff of basketball betting experts is focused on some key players who could be in line for noteworthy performances in tonight’s contests.
Read below for our NBA player prop picks for Wednesday, January 29.
NBA Player Props for Wednesday, January 29
- Tyler Herro
- Ty Jerome
- Jaden McDaniels
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Tyler Herro Over 5.5 Assists (-120)” subtext=”Cavaliers vs Heat, 7:30 p.m. ET” center=”false” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nba/100/mia.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/odds/miami-heat” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”” trailinglink=”” trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]
I’ve been on Tyler Herro’s assists prop recently, but hopped off last time out in a tough matchup against Orlando. Herro torched them for 12 assists in a near triple-double performance. I don’t want to make that mistake again.
The matchup against Cleveland isn’t perfect, but I’m trusting the underlying numbers for Herro.
The theory behind the Herro play centers on the absence of Jimmy Butler and the presence of Kel’el Ware. Herro is averaging a team-leading 5.4 assists on 10.0 potential assists. He has seen a healthy 3.4% assist rate bump with Jimmy Butler off the floor.
Ware’s breakout has been huge for Herro’s playmaking. He’s gotten a 9.3% assist rate bump with the rookie on the floor. Ware has played 30+ minutes in 5 straight games. Herro is averaging 9.0 assists on 14.3 assists in that stretch.
Cleveland is 10th in assists allowed per game and 9th in opponent assisted field goal rate. Notably, the Cavs have slipped to 26th in defensive rating in January. They’ll probably bounce back, but they’ve been vulnerable lately.
Pick: Tyler Herro Over 5.5 Assists (-120)
[relatedarticles article1imageurl=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2025/01/Jokic-Anunoby-NBA.jpg” link1text=”Nuggets vs. Knicks Prediction, Odds, Parlay Pick for Wednesday, January 29″ link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/nuggets-vs-knicks-prediction-odds-parlay-pick-for-wednesday-january-29-qs” date1=”2025-01-29T15:21:47.000Z” article2imageurl=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2025/01/ThunderWarriors1299.jpg” link2text=”Thunder vs. Warriors Prediction, Odds, Parlay Pick for Wednesday, January 29″ link2=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/thunder-vs-warriors-prediction-odds-parlay-pick-for-wednesday-january-29″ date2=”2025-01-29T16:58:37.000Z” article3imageurl=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2025/01/Wolves-Suns-NBA.jpg” link3text=”Timberwolves vs. Suns Prediction, Odds, Parlay Pick for Wednesday, January 29″ link3=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/timberwolves-vs-suns-prediction-odds-parlay-pick-for-wednesday-january-29-qs” date3=”2025-01-29T16:14:35.000Z”][/relatedarticles]
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Ty Jerome Over 13.5 Points (-110)” subtext=”Cavaliers vs Heat, 7:30 p.m. ET” center=”false” logo1url=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/nba-updated-logo-cleveland-cavaliers.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/odds/cleveland-cavaliers” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”” trailinglink=”” trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]
Darius Garland has been ruled out for the Cavaliers tonight, which should open the door for Ty Jerome to take on a big role.
He’s been a productive scorer off the bench for the Cavs, averaging 10.9 PPG in just 18.4 MPG. With Caris LeVert also out and Sam Merrill downgraded to questionable, we could get 30+ minutes from Jerome.
Miami has been middling on defense this month, ranking 17th in defensive rating and 19th in points allowed per game. The Heat are vulnerable to 3-point shooters, and that’s where teams have chosen to attack them.
Opponents score 37.3% of their points against Miami via 3-pointers, the 2nd-highest mark in the league. The Heat allow the 9th-most points per game from 3-pointers.
Jerome is averaging 16.3 PPG in the 16 games he’s played 20+ minutes. He’s taking 44.1% of his shots from beyond the arc, his highest since the OKC days.
Jerome is shooting a career-best 43.8% from 3-point range. There’s a lot to like from a volume and matchup perspective here.
Pick: Ty Jerome Over 13.5 Points (-110)
[procard imageurl=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/6919_SB59_PRO_Sale_1500x844.png” cta=”SB Special – $40 Off Action PRO!” firstupsell=”Real-time expert pick alerts” secondupsell=”Koerner’s prop projections” thirdupsell=”Biggest TD edges & more” buttontext=”SAVE $40 NOW!” buttonurl=”/pricing”][/procard]
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Jaden McDaniels Over 5.5 Rebounds (-120)” subtext=”Timberwolves vs Suns, 9:00 p.m. ET” center=”false” logo1url=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/nba-updated-logo-minnesota-timberwolves.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/odds/minnesota-timberwolves” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”” trailinglink=”” trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]
Jaden McDaniels has been putting in work on the glass recently for the Timberwolves. He’s seen an uptick in playing time this month and it’s resulted in big rebounding numbers.
McDaniels has averaged 5.3 rebounds and 9.5 rebounds chances on 31.1 MPG this season. His playing time has ramped up to 33.9 MPG in January, and it’s translated to 6.6 rebounds per game.
Two factors have led to the rise in minutes. Donte DiVincenzo went down with a long-term injury in mid-January. Rob Dillingham took his spot in the rotation, but not his minutes. McDaniels has averaged 36.5 MPG in the 6 games since DiVincenzo’s injury. He’s posted 8.2 rebounds on 13.7 rebound chances in that stretch.
Then there’s Rudy Gobert’s playing time. Here are his minutes per game by month, starting in October: 35.0, 34.3, 32.6, 31.6.
Gobert still leads the team in rebounds and rebound chances, but McDaniels and Julius Randle have closed the gap in January. There’s more room for other rebounders to succeed now that Minnesota is trimming Gobert’s workload.
Phoenix is a solid matchup. They rank 22nd in rebounding rate this season, and they’re down to 27th in January. Only 3 teams have allowed more rebounds per game this month.
The Suns added Nick Richards recently, but he’ll be tangling with Gobert. It’s a nice spot for McDaniels to continue his production on the glass.
Pick: Jaden McDaniels Over 5.5 Rebounds (-120)
_InlineAdBlock