nba-player-props-thursday-january-9

NBA Player Props for Thursday, January 9: Picks for Bradley Beal, Jaren Jackson

We have a total of three NBA player props for this Thursday, and our staff of basketball betting experts is focused on some key players who could be in line for noteworthy performances in tonight’s contests.

Read below for our NBA player prop picks for Thursday, January 9.

NBA Player Props for Thursday, January 9

  • Jaren Jackson
  • Scottie Barnes
  • Bradley Beal

[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Jaren Jackson Under 22.5 Points (-115)” subtext=”Rockets vs. Grizzlies, 8:00 p.m. ET” center=”false” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nba/100/mem.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/odds/memphis-grizzlies” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”” trailinglink=”” trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]

By Charlie Wright

The Grizzlies‘ situation is murky tonight with all three of their best players listed as questionable.

Jaren Jackson’s points prop stands out as one being close to his ceiling regardless of how the news shakes out. He’s averaging 22.7 points per game and gets an extremely difficult matchup, so I see multiple ways this could break in our favor.

Ja Morant is the big one. With Morant on the floor, Jackson’s usage rate collapses by 7.8%. Jackson has still managed to average 21.4 PPG in the 18 games he’s played with Morant, but he’s shot 52.7% from the field and 42.5% from 3-point range in those contests.

Those are much better than his season-long rates and will be tough to replicate against Houston.

Jackson doesn’t see a huge decline with Desmond Bane in the lineup, but the drop isn’t nearly as drastic, but it still exists. His usage falls by 1.1% with Bane on the floor, and he’s taken 1.4 fewer shots in the games they’ve played together.

Jackson is averaging 22.1 PPG in 26 games with Bane in the lineup alongside him.

Houston is one of the best defenses in the league. They rank 3rd in defensive rating and points allowed per game.

The Rockets had hefty home/road defensive splits last season, but they’ve cleaned that up this year. Only the Celtics and Thunder have a better defensive rating on the road.

Houston is 6th in opponent points in the paint per game and 2nd in made 3-pointers allowed per game, and those are Jackson’s primary sources of scoring.

Maybe everyone but Jackson sits and this ends up being a fair line. Maybe Jackson himself sits and it doesn’t matter. I like grabbing this line before the books have all that information.

Pick: Jaren Jackson Under 22.5 Points (-115)

[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Scottie Barnes Under 5.5 Assists (-130)” subtext=”Raptors vs. Cavaliers, 7:00 p.m. ET” center=”false” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nba/100/tor.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/odds/toronto-raptors” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”” trailinglink=”” trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]

By Charlie Wright

There’s some uncertainty around the Raptors in the market now that they’re fully healthy. Scottie Barnes, RJ Barrett, and Immanuel Quickley have somehow only played 2 games together all season.

Books have tentatively priced their props in similar ranges, which makes sense. All three guys have multi-faceted skill sets and contribute in several areas.

I see this as a good opportunity to take a stand. Quickley and Barnes are priced nearly identically on FanDuel for assists, and I like the value on Barnes.

With the info we have to work with, it seems like Barnes is shifting into more of a scoring role with everyone healthy.

Quickley has paced the team in assists (8.5) and potential assists (11.0) in 4 games since returning from a lengthy injury absence. Barnes is at 4.5 assists on 9.3 potential assists. He was at 6.9 assists on 13.7 potential assists prior to Quickley’s return.

Barnes’ passes per game have fallen from 62.4 to 47.3 since Quickley came back. The pair have only played 125 minutes together this season, and Barnes’ assist rate has fallen by 9.8% when they’re both on the floor.

That’s not a big sample, so I wouldn’t get too caught up on the exact numbers.

The bigger takeaway is that Quickley (34.8% assist rate) has been the clear lead distributor when he and Barnes (21.05% assist rate) are both out there.

Unsurprisingly, Barnes’ scoring has spiked to 23 points per game since Quickley came back, up from 19.8 PPG.

Cleveland is a challenging matchup. The Cavs are top 10 in assists allowed per game and opponent assisted field goal rate, ranked 8th in defensive rating on the season overall, and 6th over their past 10 games.

It’s a back-to-back for both teams, so neither has a rest advantage.

Pick: Scottie Barnes Under 5.5 Assists (-130)

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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Bradley Beal Under 3.5 Rebounds (+115)” subtext=”Hawks vs. Suns, 9:00 p.m. ET” center=”false” logo1url=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/875040_Suns.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/odds/phoenix-suns” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”” trailinglink=”” trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]

By Jim Turvey

Bradley Beal is averaging right on this 3.5 number this season, but there are a few factors that make the Under look strong.

For one, that average is skewed. If we use the median, it’s lower, as he has gone Under in 15 of his 25 games.

He has also been moved to the bench recently. Now, he could be moved back to the starting lineup at anytime, and it hasn’t impacted his minutes too much, but it’s another plus for this prop.

However, the biggest thing for me is that rebounds are one of the few places I actually do factor in narrative and/or motivation.

Beal is in the midst of all sorts of trade rumors, and I don’t think it’s a coincidence that he’s down from 4.2 rebounds per game in his first 15 games of the season to 2.5 in the 10 games he has played since missing some time.

He’s cleared this number in only 2 of those 10 games, and last game, when the rumors started getting the loudest, he fully checked out and had zero rebounds.

The Hawks are a fast-paced team that allows a lot of stats, but they are actually pretty solid on the glass, allowing the 7th-fewest rebounds per 100 possessions.

Pick: Bradley Beal Under 3.5 Rebounds (+115)

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