We have a total of three NBA player props for this Thursday, and our staff of basketball betting experts is focused on some key players who could be in line for noteworthy performances in tonight’s contests.
Read below for our NBA player prop picks for Thursday, January 16.
NBA Player Props for Thursday, January 16
- Jalen Green
- Kevin Durant
- James Harden
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Jalen Green Over 22.5 Points (-125)” subtext=”Rockets vs Kings, 10:00 p.m. ET” center=”false” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nba/100/hou.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/odds/houston-rockets” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”” trailinglink=”” trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]
Jalen Green’s volume has exploded lately. Since Jabari Smith Jr. went down on January 1, Green is averaging 20.3 shots per game, including 10.7 3-point attempts. He was at 16.6 and 7.6, respectively, prior to this stretch.
Green doesn’t get a major usage bump from Smith being off the floor, but the current iteration of the offense has funneled more shots in his direction.
He won’t continue to average 32 PPG given that he’s shooting an unsustainable 54.1% from the field and 50% from 3-point range, but the increased volume should make up for any efficiency regression.
Sacramento is a middling matchup in most metrics (e.g., defensive rating, points allowed, pace), but they’re vulnerable to outside shooting. They have allowed the 3rd-most made 3-pointers, the 10th-most attempts, and the 5th-best percentage.
Green has taken a career-high 8.1 3-pointers per game. His 35.4% 3-point percentage isn’t amazing, but it is the best mark of his career. Sacramento has also allowed the 8th-most points per game to shooting guards.
Pick: Jalen Green Over 22.5 Points (-125)
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Kevin Durant Over 27.5 Points (-120)” subtext=”Suns vs Wizards, 7:00 p.m. ET” center=”false” logo1url=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/875040_Suns.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/odds/phoenix-suns” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”” trailinglink=”” trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]
The worry of a blowout is definitely there going up against the Wizards tonight, but the matchup is far too good to pass up.
The Wizards have played at the 4th-fastest pace in the league this season, while being the worst defensive team by a decent margin.
The implied team total for the Suns is high, and if this game stays close, we can expect close to 40 minutes for Kevin Durant.
He should have massive volume in this high-paced game and could drop 40 against this bad defense.
Pick: Kevin Durant Over 27.5 Points (-120)
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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”James Harden Over 21.5 Points (-122)” subtext=”Clippers vs Trail Blazers, 10:00 p.m. ET” center=”false” logo1url=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/07/los-angeles-clippers-logo-updated-2023.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/odds/los-angeles-clippers” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”” trailinglink=”” trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]
With Kawhi Leonard out this game, James Harden should get his normal usage, and he’s in a great spot.
The Blazers have played at an above-average pace and have the 3rd-worst defensive efficiency in the NBA.
They have also been crushed by guards this season, allowing the 2nd-most points in the league.
The 7-point spread is a bit of a worry, and so is the Clippers being on the second end of a back-to-back, but Harden only played 23 minutes last night in the massive blowout, so he should be a full-go tonight.
RotoGrinders has Harden projected for more than 4 points over this number, and while my projections aren’t quite as high, they aren’t far off.
Pick: James Harden Over 21.5 Points (-122)
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