We have a total of three NBA player props for this Saturday, and our staff of basketball betting experts is focused on some key players who could be in line for noteworthy performances in today’s contests.
Read below for our NBA player prop picks for Saturday, January 25.
NBA Player Props for Saturday, January 25
- Tyler Herro
- Cade Cunningham
- Mark Williams
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Tyler Herro Over 5.5 Assists (-115)” subtext=”Heat vs Nets, 6:00 p.m. ET” center=”false” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nba/100/mia.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/odds/miami-heat” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”” trailinglink=”” trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]
Tyler Herro is averaging 5.1 assists on 9.7 potential assists. He gets a healthy 3.1% assist rate bump with Jimmy Butler off the floor. Herro has averaged 5.6 assists per game in 18 contests without Butler.
Brooklyn is a good matchup, ranking 23rd in assists allowed per game and 29th in opponent assist rate. The 5.5 line might seem about right when considering all those numbers, but there’s one aspect it doesn’t factor in.
Kel’el Ware has officially arrived. The dynamic rookie has been unleashed for 33+ minutes in each of the past 3 games.
Ware has scored 20+ points in each of them, including a team-high 22 against Milwaukee on Thursday. He’s started the last 2 games, and that’s unlikely to change with Jimmy Butler still suspended.
Herro’s assist rate has spiked by 9% with Ware on the floor. It’s a decent sample size too (264 minutes). Herro has averaged 8 assists on 13 potential assists during Ware’s breakout. This seems like a fruitful pairing, and I want to invest in it before the books adjust to it.
Pick: Tyler Herro Over 5.5 Assists (-115)
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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Cade Cunningham Under 40.5 Points, Rebounds, & Assists (-115)” subtext=”Pistons vs Magic, 7:00 p.m. ET” center=”false” logo1url=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/343538_pistons.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/odds/detroit-pistons” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”” trailinglink=”” trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]
Cade Cunningham has been excellent for the Pistons this season, but this is a hefty number given the matchup.
Orlando ranks 4th in defensive rating and 2nd in points allowed per game. They’re allowing the fewest assists and the 2nd-fewest rebounds per game.
The Magic are dead last in pace. They could also get a key defensive piece back with Jalen Suggs upgraded to questionable.
Cunningham faced Orlando on New Year’s Day and nearly dropped a triple double. His 19 points, 8 rebounds, and 9 assists carried Detroit to a win over the Magic, but it was still comfortably below this line.
Other books have ticked down to 39.5 and even 38.5, so I’m grabbing 40.5 now.
Pick: Cade Cunningham Under 40.5 Points, Rebounds, & Assists (-115)
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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Mark Williams Over 20.5 Points & Assists (-125)” subtext=”Pelicans vs Hornets, 7:00 p.m. ET” center=”false” logo1url=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/07/charlotte-hornets-logo-updated-2023.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/odds/charlotte-hornets” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”” trailinglink=”” trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]
Mark Williams has crushed in January, and this is a good spot to keep rolling. The injury news could also break in his favor. LaMelo Ball and Miles Bridges are questionable after missing last night’s game. Their absences could result in a few extra shot for Williams.
New Orleans is allowing the 2nd-most points in the paint per game. They allow the most field goal attempts and the 2nd-most made field goals in the restricted area.
Williams is scoring 78% of his points in the paint, and 93% of his shots come in the restricted area. Foul trouble is the main road block for Williams, but the Pelicans draw the 7th-fewest fouls per game.
I’m tacking on the assists because Williams is underpriced in that market. He’s taken strides as an offensive creator, averaging career highs in usage (21.8%) and assist rate (17.3%).
Williams is averaging 2.4 assists per game on just 23.8 MPG. He’s routinely been over 30 minutes lately and is averaging 3 APG when he plays 30+ minutes.
Pick: Mark Williams Over 20.5 Points & Assists (-125)
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