We have a total of two NBA player props for this Saturday, and our staff of basketball betting experts is focused on some key players who could be in line for noteworthy performances in tonight’s contests.
Read below for our NBA player prop picks for Saturday, January 18.
NBA Player Props for Saturday, January 18
- Tyrese Maxey
- Anfernee Simons
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Tyrese Maxey Under 6.5 Assists (+100)” subtext=”76ers vs Pacers, 7:00 p.m. ET” center=”false” logo1url=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/07/philadelphia-76ers-logo-updated-2023.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/odds/philadelphia-76ers” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”” trailinglink=”” trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]
We got back on track with this bet last time out, surviving overtime to secure another win. We’re now 10 for 11 on this prop. Joel Embiid remains out, so I’m going back to it.
Tyrese Maxey’s assist rate drops by 1.3% with Embiid on the bench. He’s averaged 5.5 assists in 21 games without Embiid.
Just like on Wednesday, we’re getting it at even money because Paul George is questionable. I’m not too concerned about George’s status. This is all about Embiid.
Indiana is 13th in assists allowed per game, but they’re 6th in opponent assisted field goal rate. They aren’t the juggernaut matchup against assists that they were last season, but it’s still a tougher spot.
The Pacers have done a nice job defensively of late, ranking 3rd in defensive rating over the last 10 games.
Pick: Tyrese Maxey Under 6.5 Assists (+100)
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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Anfernee Simons Under 28.5 Points, Rebounds, & Assists (-115)” subtext=”Rockets vs Trail Blazers, 10:00 p.m. ET” center=”false” logo1url=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/312105_Blazers.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/odds/portland-trail-blazers” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”” trailinglink=”” trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]
We hit this on Thursday at a heavily juiced 30.5. It’s ticked down a bit, but it’s still not low enough. This is the same matchup, and Portland should roll out a similar lineup.
Anfernee Simons shot horrendously on Thursday, going 0 for 9 from the field and finishing with 0 points. He added 5 assists and 1 rebound.
More concerning than the shooting numbers was the volume. Simons continues to see declines across the board with Scoot Henderson on the floor. Simons’ usage rate (-2.9%), assist rate (-6.3%), and rebound rate (-0.5%) all drop when playing alongside Henderson.
Deni Avdija remains out, which should keep Henderson in the starting lineup. Jerami Grant has been upgraded to questionable, so he could bump Henderson to the bench, but the young guard should still play plenty of minutes.
Houston is one of the toughest matchups in the league for stat accumulation. They’re 4th in defensive rating and 5th in points allowed per game.
The Rockets hold opponents to the 2nd-fewest assists and the lowest assisted field goal rate. They have the highest rebounding rate and allow the 7th-fewest rebounds per game.
Pick: Anfernee Simons Under 28.5 Points, Rebounds, & Assists (-115)
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