We have a total of three NBA player props for this Monday, and our staff of basketball betting experts is focused on some key players who could be in line for noteworthy performances to start the week.
Read below for our NBA player prop picks for Monday, January 6.
NBA Player Props for Monday, January 6
- James Harden
- Jaren Jackson
- PJ Washington
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”James Harden Under 20.5 Points (-120)” subtext=”Clippers vs. Timberwolves, 8:00 p.m. ET” center=”false” logo1url=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/07/los-angeles-clippers-logo-updated-2023.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/odds/los-angeles-clippers” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”” trailinglink=”” trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]
When James Harden joined the Clippers last season, he slid into a role that best fit his skillset at this stage of his career. He became the maestro of the offense, focusing more on distributing and less on getting his own shot. His usage rate plummeted to 20.2% and he took 11.4 shots per game, his fewest since the OKC days.
Harden took a career-high 59.4% of his shots from 3-point range last season, and he posted a 31.8% assisted field goal rate, his highest since 2013-14. The increased emphasis on 3-point shooting and assisted field goals further illustrates his role. He was a cog in the offense, not a ball-dominant scorer.
This season, Harden has returned to more of the heliocentric approach, which makes sense. Paul George is gone, and Kawhi Leonard has missed most of the season. Harden’s shot attempts jumped back up to 15.7 per game, the most since his Brooklyn stint. His assisted field goal rate slipped back to 26.6%. He’s still taken 51.5% of his shots from beyond the arc, which is significant.
Before joining the Clippers, he hadn’t been above 50% since the Houston days.
Kawhi Leonard returned on Saturday, and we got a glimpse of the old (new?) Harden from 2023-24. He dropped 15 dimes against Atlanta in just 29 minutes. He took only nine shots, five of which were 3-pointers.
Leonard didn’t crack 20 minutes, but he paced the team in usage (27.5%). Harden was 8th at 18.8%. It’s only been a game, but as Leonard gets up to speed, I’m expecting Harden to trend toward his 2023-24 self.
The Timberwolves are a brutal matchup for 3-point shooters. They rank 6th or better in opponent 3-point makes, attempts, and percentage. Minnesota has also limited opponents to the 5th-fewest free throw attempts per game. Harden still relies on getting to the charity stripe, scoring 30% of his points via free throws this season.
Pick: James Harden Under 20.5 Points (-120)
[relatedarticles article1imageurl=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2025/01/SunsSixers16.jpg” link1text=”Suns vs. 76ers Prediction, Odds, Parlay Pick for Monday, January 6″ link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/suns-vs-76ers-prediction-odds-parlay-pick-for-monday-january-6″ date1=”2025-01-06T13:52:43.000Z” article2imageurl=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2025/01/WolvesClippers16.jpg” link2text=”Clippers vs. Timberwolves Prediction, Odds, Parlay Pick for Monday, January 6″ link2=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/clippers-vs-timberwolves-prediction-odds-parlay-pick-for-monday-january-6″ date2=”2025-01-06T15:05:23.000Z” article3imageurl=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2025/01/HeatKings16.jpg” link3text=”Heat vs. Kings Prediction, Odds, Parlay Pick for Monday, January 6″ link3=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/heat-vs-kings-prediction-odds-parlay-pick-for-monday-january-6″ date3=”2025-01-06T16:10:35.000Z”][/relatedarticles]
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Jaren Jackson Under 39.5 Points, Rebounds, & Assists (-120)” subtext=”Mavericks vs. Grizzlies, 8:00 p.m. ET” center=”false” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nba/100/mem.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/odds/memphis-grizzlies” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”” trailinglink=”” trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]
By Allan Lem
Jaren Jackson is averaging 30.4 points + rebounds + assists (PRA) this season, but Monday’s situation is not typical for the Grizzlies.
They will be without all of Ja Morant, Marcus Smart, Desmond Bane (listed as doubtful), Santi Aldama, Luke Kennard, GG Jackson, and Vince Williams Jr.
The Grizzlies should still have enough players to run a 9-man rotation, but the players remaining aren’t exactly high-usage players.
I do expect Jackson to get a ton of shots up tonight, and I understand why this number is opening at 39.5.
However, he’s only surpassed 39.5 PRA in 2 of his last 10 games. It does include a 52 PRA outburst against the Suns, so the upside is there, but I still think 39.5 is a little too high based on the RotoGrinders CourtIQ data.
In terms of the matchup, the Mavs rank 11th in defensive rating, but will be missing both Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic, so it’s quite a blow to the defense. Still, the Mavs will at least have all of their big men healthy to help guard against Jackson.
Pick: Jaren Jackson Under 39.5 Points, Rebounds, & Assists (-120)
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”PJ Washington Over 22.5 Points & Rebounds (-118)” subtext=”Mavericks vs. Grizzlies, 8:00 p.m. ET” center=”false” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nba/100/dal.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/odds/dallas-mavericks” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”” trailinglink=”” trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]
By Nick Galaida
According to RotoGrinders’ CourtIQ, PJ Washington is averaging 13.8 points and 7.5 rebounds per 30 minutes this season when both Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving off of the floor.
This seems like a conservative projection for Washington tonight, considering he’s played 35 minutes, 38 minutes, and 31 minutes in three such games with both of the Mavericks‘ stars inactive this season.
In those three games, Washington has yet to post fewer than 22 points + rebounds.
More importantly, he’s taken at least 13 shot attempts and had at least 9 rebound chances in each of those games as well, indicating that he’s had stable volume in terms of opportunities.
In the last two such games, Washingtoncshot only 8-for-20 and 6-for-18 from the floor, so there is also some room for improvement in the scoring department.
This isn’t the most favorable matchup for Washington, but the Grizzlies have played at the quickest pace in the entire NBA across their last eight games, and have been close to league-average defensively during that span.
PJ should have enough opportunities tonight to make this a worthwhile risk.
Pick: PJ Washington Over 22.5 Points & Rebounds (-118)
_InlineAdBlock