The first round of the NBA Playoffs continues tonight with a solid trio of Game 3s. Continue below for my two NBA player prop bets for Thursday, April 24.
NBA Player Props for Thursday, April 24
- Mikal Bridges Over 2.5 Assists (-125, FanDuel)
- Cason Wallace Under 2.5 Assists (-140, BetMGM)
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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Mikal Bridges Over 2.5 Assists (-125)” subtext=”Knicks vs Pistons, 7:30 p.m. ET” center=”false” logo1url=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/07/new-york-knicks-updated-logo-2023.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/odds/new-york-knicks” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”” trailinglink=”” trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]
We’re getting a discount here after his line dropped from 3.5 to 2.5 — but it’s not like Bridges forgot how to pass. This is just noise we can exploit.
His pass rate has actually increased in the playoffs (1.33 per min vs. 0.99 in the regular season), though some of that comes from low-value touches — like inbounding to Brunson and watching him walk it up more.
Still, based on the quality of his pass mix, I expect his potential assists to rise in Game 3.
Teammates are just 2-for-8 on his potential assists and 7-for-30 overall off his passes — well below expected. I have him projected closer to 3.5 assists per game, with fair odds around -160.
Great buy-low spot.
Pick: Mikal Bridges Over 2.5 Assists (-125, FanDuel)
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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Cason Wallace Under 2.5 Assists (-140)” subtext=”Grizzlies vs Thunder, 9:30 p.m. ET” center=”false” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nba/100/okc.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/odds/oklahoma-city-thunder” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”” trailinglink=”” trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]
Wallace is the anti-Bridges — a classic sell-high spot.
He’s posted 3 assists in both games so far, but the underlying metrics suggest it’s smoke and mirrors. His pass rate has dipped slightly in the playoffs, yet his teammates have converted all 6 of his potential assists.
That’s a 100% hit rate. Not sustainable.
Based on his pass mix, I have him closer to 1.3 expected assists per game, making him a textbook regression candidate.
I’m projecting this line closer to -185 to stay under 2.5.
Pick: Cason Wallace Under 2.5 Assists (-140, BetMGM)
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