We have a total of three NBA player props for this Friday, and our staff of basketball betting experts is focused on some key players who could be in line for noteworthy performances in tonight’s contests.
Read below for our NBA player prop picks for Friday, January 17.
NBA Player Props for Friday, January 17
- Wendell Carter
- Mark Williams
- PJ Washington
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Wendell Carter Over 7.5 Rebounds (+110)” subtext=”Magic vs Celtics, 7:00 p.m. ET” center=”false” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nba/100/orl.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/odds/orlando-magic” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”” trailinglink=”” trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]
I waffled on this bet last game against Milwaukee. I ended up not taking it and I’m still kicking myself. With Goga Bitadze ruled out, it seemed like Wendell Carter would have to play the majority of the center minutes.
For some reason I was nervous about Orlando giving Carter full run. Well, he played a team-leading 33 minutes and grabbed 10 rebounds. The Magic were down 20+ at halftime and were never competitive, and Carter was still out there for a full workload.
Bitadze is out again tonight, so I’m taking the plunge this time.
Carter is 3rd on the team in rebounds (6.9) and 2nd in rebound chances (12.2) per game. Bitadze is ahead of him in both categories, while Paolo Banchero has averaged more rebounds, albeit in a small sample (8 games).
Carter dominated opportunities in their latest outing, finishing with 16 rebound chances. No other Orlando player had more than 7. It was the 7th game this season Carter had reached 30+ minutes, and he’s averaged 9.4 rebounds in those contests.
Boston is a middling matchup. They’re 14th in rebounding rate and 18th in rebounds allowed per game.
A blowout is a possibility, but again, we just saw Carter play 33 minutes in a game that was never close. If he handles the majority of the center minutes, Carter should threaten for another double-double.
Pick: Wendell Carter Over 7.5 Rebounds (+110, DraftKings)
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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Mark Williams Over 15.5 Points (-124)” subtext=”Hornets vs Bulls, 8:00 p.m. ET” center=”false” logo1url=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/07/charlotte-hornets-logo-updated-2023.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/odds/charlotte-hornets” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”” trailinglink=”” trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]
There might be some sticker shock here since we’ve been betting this at 11.5 and 12.5, but the jump is more than warranted.
Mark Williams dropped a career-high 31 points last time out against Utah. More importantly, he played a career-high 36 minutes.
Charlotte traded backup center Nick Richards to Phoenix, which leaves them pretty thin in the front court. They trotted out Taj Gibson for 7 minutes against the Jazz. Tidjane Salaun played a handful of minutes as the small-ball center option.
Basically, Williams is getting as many minutes as he can handle.
Williams has taken a major step forward offensively, averaging career-best marks in scoring, shooting, usage, and free throw attempts. He’s also been assisted on 84.5% of his field goals, a career-high by a mile. He’s shown a nice connection with LaMelo Ball, and that should be on full display tonight.
Chicago allows the most points in the paint per game by a decent margin. They also give up the 2nd-most assists per game. The Bulls are allowing the 5th-most points per game to centers.
It’s the ideal matchup for an interior scorer playing with a gifted distributor.
Pick: Mark Williams Over 15.5 Points (-124, bet365)
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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”PJ Washington Over 8.5 Rebounds (+105)” subtext=”Thunder vs Mavericks, 8:30 p.m. ET” center=”false” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nba/100/dal.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/odds/dallas-mavericks” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”” trailinglink=”” trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]
Isaiah Hartenstein single-handedly solved OKC’s rebounding issues. After being one of the worst rebounding teams in the league last season, they added Hartenstein and became semi-competent.
Hartenstein made his team debut on Nov. 20 after recovering from an offseason injury. In the next 24 games, the Thunder ranked 19th in rebounding rate and 15th in rebounds allowed per game. Not amazing, but a big improvement.
Hartenstein has been ruled out tonight. With him off the floor this season, OKC’s opponent rebounding rate jumps up by 5.2%. That’s a pretty insane difference. Opposing teams go from a 48.3% rebounding rate to a 53.5% rebounding rate with Hartenstein sidelined.
For context, that would be the 4th-worst mark to the best rebounding rate in the league. Cleveland got body slammed last night in this matchup, but they out-rebounded OKC by 10.
Washington leads the regulars with a 1.1% rebounding rate bump with Luka Doncic off the floor. He’s averaged 9.1 RPG in 18 games without Doncic.
Washington ranks 3rd on the team in rebounds per game (7.8), behind Doncic and Dereck Lively. His 12.6 rebound chances per game ranks 4th, behind Lively, Daniel Gafford, and Doncic.
Gafford and Washington are priced similarly. I’m siding with Washington because of his safer playing time.
Even without Lively, Gafford could fall short of playing time expectations if the Thunder force the Mavs to go small. We could see more Maxi Kleber minutes, or even Washington shifting to center.
Both Washington and Gafford went off for 12+ rebounds and 22+ rebound chances on Wednesday, so they could both get there. I just feel better about Washington.
Pick: PJ Washington Over 8.5 Rebounds (+105, DraftKings)
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