We have a total of three NBA player props for this Friday, and our staff of basketball betting experts is focused on some key players who could be in line for noteworthy performances in tonight’s contests.
Read below for our NBA player prop picks for Friday, January 10.
NBA Player Props for Friday, January 10
- Adem Bona
- Josh Hart
- Patrick Williams
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Adem Bona Under 4.5 Points (-137)” subtext=”Pelicans vs. 76ers, 7:00 p.m. ET” center=”false” logo1url=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/07/philadelphia-76ers-logo-updated-2023.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/odds/philadelphia-76ers” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”” trailinglink=”” trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]
I flagged this one last night and was glad to see RotoGrinders’ projections agree with the under here. Adem Bona will see an uptick in playing time with Joel Embiid and Andre Drummond sidelined for the 76ers, and he gets a good matchup tonight against a team who has allowed the 2nd-most points in the paint per game.
The issue is that he’s an extremely low-usage player with a narrow path to production. Bona’s 10.7% usage rate ranks 17th on the team. Kyle Lowry is the only player behind him. Bona has taken 4.7 shots per 36 minutes.
Given that he’ll likely play minutes in the low-teens, we’re looking at only a couple shots here. Bona has taken more than 2 shots in a game just twice this season. He’s gotten to the line at a relatively decent clip, actually averaging as many free throws (1) as field goal attempts (1) per game.
New Orleans has allowed the 7th-fewest free throw attempts per game though.
I’d guess the books are projecting a closer split of the center minutes between Bona and Guerschon Yabusele. Projecting Bona for 18-20 minutes is really the only way to expect 5+ points. We just haven’t seen that type of playing time, especially lately.
Embiid and Drummond have missed the last two games, and Yabusele has averaged 35 minutes. In 5 games without both Embiid and Drummond this season, Yabusele has averaged 34.1 minutes. Bona is at 14.1. Bona isn’t even guaranteed all of the backup center minutes.
Justin Edwards played a little small-ball center against Phoenix, and we could see Philly opt for a similar approach tonight. The Pelicans will bring 6’8″ Jeremiah Robinson-Earl and 6’8″ Daniel Theis off the bench, so Bona’s size might not be necessary.
Pick: Adem Bona Under 4.5 Points (-137)
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Josh Hart Under 14.5 Points (-115)” subtext=”Thunder vs. Knicks, 7:30 p.m. ET” center=”false” logo1url=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/07/new-york-knicks-updated-logo-2023.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/odds/new-york-knicks” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”” trailinglink=”” trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]
Josh Hart has been playing some great basketball for the Knicks recently, but this number is a bit inflated given the matchup.
The Thunder are the best defensive team in the league this season by a wide margin, and should be able to keep Hart in check.
Karl-Anthony Towns is currently listed as questionable, and if he doesn’t play, it’s definitely a plus for Hart’s usage, but he has only seen a bump of less than 1% in usage without KAT on the floor.
I have this as a slight EV bet if KAT does play, and a big EV bet if KAT doesn’t play, so I’m getting in early and hoping KAT sits out.
Pick: Josh Hart Under 14.5 Points (-115)
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Patrick Williams Over 9.5 Points (-125)
” subtext=”Wizards vs. Bulls, 8:00 p.m. ET” center=”false” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nba/100/chi.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/odds/chicago-bulls” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”” trailinglink=”” trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]
Patrick Williams has been up-and-down for the Bulls recently, but he’s in a great spot here.
The Wizards are one of the fastest-paced teams in the league and probably the worst defensively.
The total for this matchup is massive (242.5) with both of these teams being in the top-4 in pace.
Williams should get 10+ shot attempts regardless of if this game stays close, and if it does stay close, he could be in for a big game.
He gets a lot of volume from beyond the arc, and the Wizards have allowed the 2nd-most 3-pointers per game this season.
I have Williams projected for nearly 3 points over this number tonight, making this a great bet.
Pick: Patrick Williams Over 9.5 Points (-125)
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