I’m back on NBA player prop picks for the playoffs. Tonight, I’m on assist unders for Isaiah Hartenstein and Austin Reaves for TNT’s doubleheader of Game 2s.
NBA Player Prop Picks
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 7:30 p.m. ET | [teammatchup shadow=”false” link=”#1″ firstfullname=”New York Knicks” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/07/new-york-knicks-updated-logo-2023.png” text=”Isaiah Hartenstein”][/teammatchup] |
| 10 p.m. ET | [teammatchup shadow=”false” link=”#2″ firstfullname=”Los Angeles Lakers” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nba/100/lal.png” text=”Austin Reaves”][/teammatchup] |
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.
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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”76ers vs. Knicks”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”false” league=”nba” awaylogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/07/philadelphia-76ers-logo-updated-2023.png” awayname=”Philadelphia 76ers” awayslug=”philadelphia-76ers” homelogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/07/new-york-knicks-updated-logo-2023.png” homename=”New York Knicks” homeslug=”new-york-knicks” date=”Monday, April 22″ time=”7:30 p.m. ET” network=”TNT”][/gameheader]
[subheader text=”Isaiah Hartenstein” subtext=”Under 2.5 Assists (+102)” logo1url=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/07/new-york-knicks-updated-logo-2023.png” trailinglogourl=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/122955_FanDuelSportsBook@1x.jpg” trailinglink=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/online-sports-betting/reviews/fanduel” trailinglinkfollow=”false”][/subheader]
Hartenstein has cleared this in four straight games, but the last three times he cleared this in the regular season was mainly due to seeing more minutes than Mitchell Robinson and an unstainable spike in potential assist rate.
In Game 1 of this series against the 76ers, we saw Hartenstein’s potential assist rate drop closer to where we’d normally expect it to be in the 11-12% range. However, his teammates managed to make their 3-point attempts on all of his potential assists.
Typically, Hartenstein will only see a 60-65% conversion rate on his potential assists, so he is much more likely to finish with exactly two assists based on his current underlying metrics and will continue to see fewer minutes than Robinson in this series.
I’m projecting him closer to -150 to stay under 2.5 assists (2.3).
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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Lakers vs. Nuggets”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”false” league=”nba” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nba/100/lal.png” awayname=”Los Angeles Lakers” awayslug=”los-angeles-lakers” homelogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/725847_nba_den_150x150.png” homename=”Denver Nuggets” homeslug=”denver-nuggets” date=”Monday, April 22″ time=”10 p.m. ET” network=”TNT”][/gameheader]
[subheader text=”Austin Reaves” subtext=”Under 4.5 Assists (-105)” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nba/100/lal.png” trailinglogourl=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/477013_DraftKings@1x.png” trailinglink=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/online-sports-betting/reviews/draftkings” trailinglinkfollow=”false”][/subheader]
Reaves saw a concerning drop in potential assist rate in Game 1 and only 6% of his passes turned into potential assists. LeBron James was dominating in terms of potential assists for the Lakers, as we’d expect to be the case now that we’re in the playoffs.
Reaves managed to convert on all three of his potential assists, but he can’t bank on his teammates converting on 100% of his potential assists going forward. That means now would be the time to invest in his under with his assist prop being way too high at 4.5. It’s already going to be an uphill battle for the Lakers to rack up assists against the Nuggets considering their team total is 10+ points lower than their season average points per game.
I’m projecting Reaves for closer to four assists with around a 63% chance he stays under 4.5.
Pick: Austin Reaves Under 4.5 Assists (-105)
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