With less than a week left to go in the NBA regular season, things are getting tight in seeding races, playoff races, and tanking matchups. But there’s still plenty of value on the board to be found.
Continue below for my NBA picks and predictions for Tuesday, April 8.
NBA Picks Tonight, Predictions, Expert Bets for Tuesday, April 8
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Wizards vs. Pacers
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This is just too many points. Even with downgrades for guys like Khris Middleton out, and the Wizards’ very clear intentions to pursue lottery positioning, I make this is Pacers -14.
Hold your nose and bet the Wiz.
Trends:
- The Pacers are 6-9-1 ATS this season against teams with a 45% or worse winning percentage as a home favorite. They have failed to cover vs. the Hornets, twice, the Nets, the Blazers, and the Pelicans. Now, the Wizards are just as bad as any of those teams. But this is also 18.5 points we’re talking about.
- Here’s a weird one: the Pacers rely quite a bit on turnovers for their defense. When the opponent has a lower turnovers-per-game mark, which believe it or not, the Wizards do, Indiana is just 21-29-1 ATS (41%) this season.
Pick: Wizards +18.5 (-110)
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Bulls vs. Cavaliers
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The Cavaliers are just about out of reasons to put the peddle down, but their magic number to secure the 1-seed is one.
I’m not interested in the spread, though. The Bulls have been competitive, the Cavaliers are coming off a loss.
I love the over in this spot.
Trends:
- The over is 56% in Bulls road games this season and 59% in Cavaliers home games.
- The Bulls take an above-league-average amount of threes. The over in those teams’ games against the Cavs this year is 19-10.
Chicago can stretch the floor with their bigs against the drop coverage of the Cavaliers, and have big ball-handlers to get downhill against Darius Garland and Donovan Mitchell. Mitchell’s recent offensive struggles don’t concern me.
I make this game 244.7.
Pick: Over 240 (-110)
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Timberwolves vs. Bucks
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The site Inpredictable has market ratings for teams; it’s basically power ratings based on betting data. Those power ratings make this Wolves -4 on neutral. But they’re in Milwaukee. How are they laying four?
Yes, Damian Lillard is out. I don’t mind the Bucks being home ‘dogs here against a good West playoff team. But this is too many points.
I make this Bucks -1, even with the downgrade for Dame. Giannis Antetokounmpo has been a home ‘dog when he’s played four times this season: against the Celtics, Thunder, Cavaliers, and Nuggets. He beat the Nuggets straight up, and failed to cover vs. the other three. Is Minnesota closer to the Nuggets or OKC?
I’m not saying Minnesota’s not great. They are sneaky live to win the West. But they are not “Oklahoma City Thunder/Cleveland Cavaliers/Boston Celtics good.” So this line is wrong.
I’ll take the Bucks to win the game outright, as the Bucks put a firm hold on the 5-seed to avoid a bad matchup vs. the Knicks.
Picks: Bucks +5 | Bucks ML (+170)
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Warriors vs. Suns
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I should be on Phoenix. Buy-low spot, catching three possessions at home. But the Warriors are 14-1 with the lineup they’re currently starting, and have been a wagon.
My numbers make this inside five points, but I don’t trust them with how the Suns have lost the plot and their spirit and the Warriors are off a frustrating, tough loss with a chance to basically lock a playoff spot.
I’ll trust Golden State to keep rolling.
Pick: Warriors -9 (-110)
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Moneyline Parlay
- Magic Moneyline (-175)
- Bucks Moneyline (+170)
- Warriors Moneyline (-400)
- Pelicans Moneyline (+120)
Parlay Payout: +1045
The Hawks made 20+ threes vs. the Jazz in their last win, so they fall in that same fade spot as the Lakers. Orlando needs this game and looks closer to what they started the season like with their home defense.
The Pelicans are starting several developmental projects, but they’re also starting and playing real NBA veterans, which the Nets are very low on. I faded Brooklyn over the weekend as a home favorite vs. the Raptors and this is the same principle. The Pelicans are bad, but shouldn’t be dogs to the Nets even on the road.
Throw those two with the moneylines for Golden State and the Bucks and you get +1045 at BetMGM. That’s good value for where those teams are at going into action on Tuesday.
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