There are four games on the NBA docket for Friday in which The Action Network’s betting model disagrees with the market.
Our model is player-level, so it factors in all injuries and COVID-related absences across the league that have made handicapping NBA games so tricky in the last month.
Here are the four underdogs our model likes for Friday.
NBA Friday Model Projection Edges
Odds and betting data last updated at 2:30 p.m. ET on Friday.
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Phoenix Suns vs. Indiana Pacers
7 p.m. ET
Our model indicates that the Pacers should be just 2.3-point underdogs for this matchup.
However, the consensus price on the market is at Pacers +5.5. That’s a roughly 7.4% betting edge, good for an A- grade overall.
And while the public is riding with Phoenix, the Pacers have the big money on their spread.
Our model factors in the fact that Indiana’s leading scorer Malcolm Brogdon is questionable for tonight’s game.
The Suns have no new injuries of note after several players returned from the COVID list earlier this month.
Model Projection Pick: Pacers +5.5 (consensus).
Orlando Magic vs. Charlotte Hornets
7 p.m. ET
The Action Network’s model thinks the Magic should be just 7.5-point underdogs here.
The consensus line in the market puts the Magic at +11 dogs, but BetMGM has Orlando at a market-best of +11.5.
That’s a roughly 9% edge, good for an A- grade from our models.
Orlando’s third-leading scorer Wendell Carter Jr. will miss this contest with a hamstring injury.
Meanwhile, Kelly Oubre Jr. was placed on the COVID list for the Hornets earlier this week.
Model Projection Pick: Magic +11 (consensus).
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Toronto Raptors vs. Detroit Pistons
7 p.m. ET
The Action Network’s models say the Pistons should be just 4.6-point underdogs against the Raptors. The consensus in the market has Detroit as a 9.5-point underdog.
That’s a roughly 14% edge, good for an A+ grade from our models.
In fact, you can get an even better edge at BetMGM, which is pricing this contest at Pistons +10.5, about a point higher than the consensus market price.
The Pistons’ spread actually opened up at +7 before moving to its market value.
At Detroit +7, our models would have given the edge just roughly 4%.
There are no new, major injuries on either side. The Raptors have Scottie Barnes as questionable. And there’s a chance Frank Jackson returns from the COVID list for Detroit tonight.
Sharps and big money bettors are also on the Pistons’ spread.
Model Projection Pick: Pistons +10.5 (BetMGM).
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. San Antonio Spurs
8:30 p.m. ET
The Action Network’s models think the Spurs should only be 1.2-point underdogs for this matchup. That, relative to the current market high of +4, gives this bet an edge of about 7%, good for an B+ grade.
The Spurs’ third-leading scorer Derrick White will miss this contest after being placed on the COVID list on Friday morning.
That news moved the line from Spurs +3 to Spurs +4.
Second-leading scorer Keldon Johnson returned to the lineup on Wednesday after missing three games.
Again, our models are player-level and have incorporated these factors into its calculations.
Meanwhile, the Cavs are still missing Collin Sexton. Ricky Rubio is now out for the season, too.
The best price on the market is with FanDuel at +4 (-114).
Sharp Action, Big Money Betting Pick: Spurs +4 (FanDuel).