The Indiana Pacers and Oklahoma City Thunder will square off in Game 5 of the NBA Finals on Monday night, with tipoff set for 8:30 p.m. ET on ABC.
NBA betting expert Brandon Anderson dug into the latest odds and identified his top series predictions entering Game 5 tonight.
Continue below for his NBA Finals series predictions as of Monday, June 16.
NBA Finals Series Predictions, Futures Bets, Exact Outcomes
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On the eve of Game 5, I’m finally ready to bet the Pacers.
I just don’t think books have caught up to how well Indiana marches up with Oklahoma City and how tight these games have been.
I’m finally adjusting OKC down as a huge favorite in this specific matchup.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had a huge close in Game 4, but has struggled to get going the last couple games, and Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren have both been very up-and-down. Both also took big injury concerns in Game 4 that could linger or re-trigger.
The Thunder have struggled on the road all playoffs comparatively, and they were the worse team both games in Games 3-4 in Indiana.
They’ll be favored in a road in Game 6, but I’m not sure they should be at this point, and they shouldn’t be as massive of a favorite as books are pricing, even in OKC.
I still think Thunder win big in Game 5, and get one more win to close out is the most likely scenario, but by nowhere near as much confidence as books are pricing.
Indy is simply showing too much value for me to pass on them.
Even if I lower my odds for the Pacers in each game by 10%, I still show value on Indiana. That means I gotta bet it, even if I don’t totally believe it.
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If you want to keep it simple, just Pacers title +450 does the trick. That’s 18% implied versus literally double that for me at 37%.
I’m greedy, so I’ll bet two exact outcomes at BetMGM.
Pacers to win the next two games is +1200 (<8% implied probability), and I show huge value at 19%. Also, Pacers to lose Game 5, but win the next two at +1600 is also clear (but less) value.
I’m sacrificing the out where the road team wins all three remaining games, and I get every other pacers outcome — basically to win Game 6 at home plus one more, at a combined 13.6% implied or +637.
That’s just too long for me to pass up in a series that’s been far more competitive through four games than that number implies.
NBA Finals Series Predictions
- Pacers Win 4-2 (+1200) / Pacers Win 4-3 (+1600) – via BetMGM
- Pacers to Win Series (+450) – via FanDuel
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