NBA Finals Best Bets, Picks, Predictions for Monday, June 16

The Indiana Pacers and Oklahoma City Thunder will square off in Game 5 of the NBA Finals on Monday night, with tipoff set for 8:30 p.m. ET on ABC.

Our staff of basketball betting experts dug into the latest odds and identified 4 NBA picks for tonight’s contest. Continue below for our NBA best bets and predictions for Monday, June 16.

NBA Finals Best Bets, Picks, Predictions: Monday, June 16

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Game	Time (ET)	Pick
[teammatchup link=”#1″ firstfullname=”Indiana Pacers” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nba/100/ind.png” secondfullname=”Oklahoma City Thunder” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nba/100/okc.png”][/teammatchup]	8:30 p.m.	Jalen Williams Over 4.5 Free Throws Made
[teammatchup link=”#2″ firstfullname=”Indiana Pacers” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nba/100/ind.png” secondfullname=”Oklahoma City Thunder” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nba/100/okc.png”][/teammatchup]	8:30 p.m.	Obi Toppin Under 5.5 Rebounds
[teammatchup link=”#3″ firstfullname=”Indiana Pacers” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nba/100/ind.png” secondfullname=”Oklahoma City Thunder” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nba/100/okc.png”][/teammatchup]	8:30 p.m.	Thunder -9.5
[teammatchup link=”#4″ firstfullname=”Indiana Pacers” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nba/100/ind.png” secondfullname=”Oklahoma City Thunder” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nba/100/okc.png”][/teammatchup]	8:30 p.m.	Isaiah Hartenstein Under 8.5 PA
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.

[anchor name=”1″][/anchor]

[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Pacers vs. Thunder Free Throw Prop”][/subheader]

[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Jalen Williams Over 4.5 Free Throws Made (-115)” league=”nba” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nba/100/ind.png” awayname=”Indiana Pacers” awayslug=”indiana-pacers” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nba/100/okc.png” homename=”Oklahoma City Thunder” homeslug=”oklahoma-city-thunder” date=”Monday, June 16″ time=”8:30 p.m. ET” network=”ABC” bookname=”ESPN BET” bookprimarylogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/11/ESPNBET-rect-2colorway-e1700601975338.png” bookreviewslug=”espn-bet”][/gameheader]

By Joe Dellera

Jalen Williams had been extremely aggressive during this series, and is continuously attacking the rack while Indiana diverts the bulk of their defensive attention towards Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

This has resulted in more paint touches and more free throws for J-Dub.

So far this series, he has gone 4/4, 8/9, 7/11, and 11/11 from the charity stripe.

He’s an 80% career free throw shooter, and given the opportunities, he should be able to convert on at least 5 attempts.

Pick: Jalen Williams Over 4.5 Free Throws Made (-115)

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[teammatchup link=”#1″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Indiana Pacers” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nba/100/ind.png” secondfullname=”Oklahoma City Thunder” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nba/100/okc.png”][/teammatchup]

[teammatchup link=”#2″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Indiana Pacers” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nba/100/ind.png” secondfullname=”Oklahoma City Thunder” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nba/100/okc.png”][/teammatchup]

[teammatchup link=”#3″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Indiana Pacers” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nba/100/ind.png” secondfullname=”Oklahoma City Thunder” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nba/100/okc.png”][/teammatchup]

[teammatchup link=”#4″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Indiana Pacers” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nba/100/ind.png” secondfullname=”Oklahoma City Thunder” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nba/100/okc.png”][/teammatchup]

[anchor name=”2″][/anchor]

[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Pacers vs. Thunder Rebounds Best Bet”][/subheader]

[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Obi Toppin Under 5.5 Rebounds (-122)” league=”nba” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nba/100/ind.png” awayname=”Indiana Pacers” awayslug=”indiana-pacers” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nba/100/okc.png” homename=”Oklahoma City Thunder” homeslug=”oklahoma-city-thunder” date=”Monday, June 16″ time=”8:30 p.m. ET” network=”ABC” bookname=”FanDuel” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/122955_FanDuelSportsBook@1x.jpg” bookreviewslug=”fanduel”][/gameheader]

By Michael Arinze

The Pacers missed out on a glorious chance to have a commanding edge in the series after winning the first three quarters against the Thunder in Game 4. However, Oklahoma City outscored Indiana 31-17 in the final 12 minutes to knot the series at two games apiece.

OKC dominated the Pacers 12-4 on the glass in the fourth quarter, leading to eight second-chance points. Chet Holmgren led the way with 15 of Oklahoma City’s 43 rebounds, while Indiana finished with just 33.

Thunder center Isaiah Hartenstein returned to the starting lineup after coming off the bench in the first three games. Although he managed only six rebounds, his presence was enough to make things difficult for Indiana.

With Hartenstein likely to start Game 5, I’d expect the Thunder to continue to control the boards and limit the rebounding opportunities for Indiana.

Based on that assessment, I’ve targeted Pacers forward Obi Toppin as a player we should fade in the rebounding category.

Toppin has a prop of 5.5 rebounds — a projection he has failed to cover in 15 of his previous 19 games and nine of his last 10 when on the road. Moreover, Toppin has also stayed under this number in each of his last four meetings against the Thunder.

Given how bench players tend to perform better at home vs. on the road, we could see some diminishing returns with Toppin on the glass, especially considering the Thunder’s likely commitment to playing a bigger lineup with Hartenstein back in the mix.

Pick: Obi Toppin Under 5.5 Rebounds (-122)

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[anchor name=”3″][/anchor]

[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Pacers vs. Thunder ATS Pick”][/subheader]

[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Thunder -9.5 (-110)” league=”nba” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nba/100/ind.png” awayname=”Indiana Pacers” awayslug=”indiana-pacers” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nba/100/okc.png” homename=”Oklahoma City Thunder” homeslug=”oklahoma-city-thunder” date=”Monday, June 16″ time=”8:30 p.m. ET” network=”ABC” bookname=”BetMGM” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/779359_BetMGM800x200@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”betmgm”][/gameheader]

By Michael Fiddle

Games 1 and 2 of this series closed with OKC as double digit favorites, and I think the same comes for Game 5 back in OKC.

The betting market shows there has been OKC money coming in and it is pushing the number towards -115 at -9.5.

Any further OKC action should simply move the number.

As has been noted these playoffs, three things are certain: death, taxes, and late money on OKC (especially true at home).

The moneyline is already shifting that way as well, pushing the limits of what a -9.5 correlates to.

Get in before it moves to double digits on the OKC side. If you want to bet Indiana, wait until closer to tipoff.

Pick: Thunder -9.5 (-110)

[anchor name=”4″][/anchor]

[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Pacers vs. Thunder Combo Prop”][/subheader]

[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Isaiah Hartenstein Under 8.5 Points + Assists (-125)” league=”nba” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nba/100/ind.png” awayname=”Indiana Pacers” awayslug=”indiana-pacers” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nba/100/okc.png” homename=”Oklahoma City Thunder” homeslug=”oklahoma-city-thunder” date=”Monday, June 16″ time=”8:30 p.m. ET” network=”ABC” bookname=”DraftKings ” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/477013_DraftKings@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”draftkings”][/gameheader]

By Charlie Wright

I’m running this back after an easy win in Game 4. Hartenstein remains an afterthought on offense, with a 9.7% usage rate in this series. He’s taken just 3.3 shots per game.

Hartenstein’s only bucket in Game 4 was a loose ball he corralled and put back in. He had 3 assists, but they came on 2 potential assists.

Even if we clean up that statistical quirk and give him 3 potential assists, we should expect that conversion rate to regress. He’s averaged 1.8 assists on 4 potential assists in this series.

Hartenstein was reinserted into the starting lineup in Game 4, but his minutes didn’t increase. He played 21 minutes and is now averaging 19.5 MPG in the Finals.

Head coach Mark Daigneault has been more comfortable leaning on smaller lineups led by Alex Caruso instead of relying on Hartenstein.

After topping 30 minutes just once in the postseason heading into this series, Caruso has now played 30+ minutes in back-to-back games.

I wouldn’t be discouraged if Hartenstein starts again, and there’s a chance Daigneault goes back to Cason Wallace or gives the starting job to Caruso.

NBA Finals Best Bets, Picks, Predictions for Monday, June 16

NBA Finals Best Bets, Picks, Predictions: Monday, June 16

Pick: Jalen Williams Over 4.5 Free Throws Made (-115)

Pick: Obi Toppin Under 5.5 Rebounds (-122)

Pick: Thunder -9.5 (-110)

Pick: Isaiah Hartenstein Under 8.5 Points + Assists (-125)