The first round of the NBA Playoffs resumes with another loaded slate this Sunday, with staggered start times for four Game 4s scheduled throughout the day, as Knicks-Pistons and Lakers-Wolves will get us started in the afternoon, and then we’ll close the weekend with Celtics-Magic and Pacers-Bucks later in the evening.
Our staff of basketball betting experts dug into the latest odds and identified NBA picks for all 4 of today’s contests. Continue below for our NBA best bets and predictions for Sunday, April 27.
NBA Best Bets for First Round Playoff Games: Sunday, April 27
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| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| [teammatchup link=”#1″ firstfullname=”New York Knicks” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/07/new-york-knicks-updated-logo-2023.png” secondfullname=”Detroit Pistons” secondlogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/343538_pistons.png”][/teammatchup] | 1 p.m. | |
| [teammatchup link=”#2″ firstfullname=”Los Angeles Lakers” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nba/100/lal.png” secondfullname=”Minnesota Timberwolves” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/nba-updated-logo-minnesota-timberwolves.png”][/teammatchup] | 3:30 p.m. | |
| [teammatchup link=”#3″ firstfullname=”New York Knicks” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/07/new-york-knicks-updated-logo-2023.png” secondfullname=”Detroit Pistons” secondlogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/343538_pistons.png”][/teammatchup] | 1 p.m. | |
| [teammatchup link=”#4″ firstfullname=”Boston Celtics” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/07/boston-celtics-logo-updated-2023.png” secondfullname=”Orlando Magic” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nba/100/orl.png”][/teammatchup] | 7 p.m. | |
| [teammatchup link=”#5″ firstfullname=”Indiana Pacers” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nba/100/ind.png” secondfullname=”Milwaukee Bucks” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nba/100/mil.png”][/teammatchup] | 9:30 p.m. | |
| [teammatchup link=”#6″ firstfullname=”Indiana Pacers” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nba/100/ind.png” secondfullname=”Milwaukee Bucks” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nba/100/mil.png”][/teammatchup] | 9:30 p.m. | |
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.
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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Pacers vs. Bucks”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Myles Turner 15+ Points (-106)” league=”nba” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nba/100/ind.png” awayname=”Indiana Pacers” awayslug=”indiana-pacers” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nba/100/mil.png” homename=”Milwaukee Bucks” homeslug=”milwaukee-bucks” date=”Sunday, April 27″ time=”9:30 p.m. ET” network=”TNT” bookname=”FanDuel” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/122955_FanDuelSportsBook@1x.jpg” bookreviewslug=”fanduel”][/gameheader]
By Alex Hinton
Over the last few years, the Pacers have been helpless to stop Giannis Antetokounmpo and that has not changed in this series. He is averaging 35.7 points and 14 rebounds through the first three games in this series. He has cleared this line in all three games as well as in 11 of his last 18 games against the Pacers since the start of the 2021 season.
He is averaging 20.7 field goal attempts per game and converting at a 67.7% clip through the first three games. While free throws are never a guarantee with Antetokounmpo, he is averaging 11.7 free throw attempts and adding about eight points per game at the foul line. Antetokounmpo is averaging 19.7 rebound chances and converting a 71% rate. He has had 10 rebounds in 17 of his last 18 games against the Pacers.
Despite his best efforts, the Bucks are still down 2-1 in this series. With Damian Lillard struggling in his return from blood clots, it is hard to see the Bucks evening up the series without another dominant game from Antetokounmpo.
Pick: Giannis Antetokounmpo Over 46.5 PR
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[anchor name=”6″][/anchor]
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Pacers vs. Bucks”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Myles Turner 15+ Points (-106)” league=”nba” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nba/100/ind.png” awayname=”Indiana Pacers” awayslug=”indiana-pacers” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nba/100/mil.png” homename=”Milwaukee Bucks” homeslug=”milwaukee-bucks” date=”Sunday, April 27″ time=”9:30 p.m. ET” network=”TNT” bookname=”FanDuel” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/122955_FanDuelSportsBook@1x.jpg” bookreviewslug=”fanduel”][/gameheader]
By Joe Dellera
The Pacers had a down-game overall in Game 3, but still lead the series 2-1.
The Pacers played a bizarre rotation and Myles Turner only scored 6 points in 24 minutes. He was 1/9 from the field and 0/6 from three-point range. That’s some poor shooting variance, but the opportunity was still there despite the limited minutes.
He cleared this line in the first two games of the series, and I want to buy low on Turner. He has had some blow up games against this Bucks defense, and I expect a bounce back performance today.
Pick: Myles Turner 15+ Points (-106)
| [teammatchup link=”#1″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”New York Knicks” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/07/new-york-knicks-updated-logo-2023.png” secondfullname=”Detroit Pistons” secondlogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/343538_pistons.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#2″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Los Angeles Lakers” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nba/100/lal.png” secondfullname=”Minnesota Timberwolves” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/nba-updated-logo-minnesota-timberwolves.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#3″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”New York Knicks” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/07/new-york-knicks-updated-logo-2023.png” secondfullname=”Detroit Pistons” secondlogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/343538_pistons.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#4″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Boston Celtics” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/07/boston-celtics-logo-updated-2023.png” secondfullname=”Orlando Magic” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nba/100/orl.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#5″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Indiana Pacers” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nba/100/ind.png” secondfullname=”Milwaukee Bucks” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nba/100/mil.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#6″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Indiana Pacers” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nba/100/ind.png” secondfullname=”Milwaukee Bucks” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nba/100/mil.png”][/teammatchup] |
[anchor name=”1″][/anchor]
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Knicks vs. Pistons”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Karl-Anthony Towns Over 21.5 Points (-125)” league=”nba” awaylogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/07/new-york-knicks-updated-logo-2023.png” awayname=”New York Knicks” awayslug=”new-york-knicks” homelogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/343538_pistons.png” homename=”Detroit Pistons” homeslug=”detroit-pistons” date=”Sunday, April 27″ time=”1 p.m. ET” network=”ABC” bookname=”DraftKings ” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/477013_DraftKings@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”draftkings”][/gameheader]
By Joe Dellera
The Knicks got Karl-Anthony Towns rolling in Game 3 and it paid dividends. They relentlessly attacked the interior, and KAT made 4 three-pointers to stretch out this Pistons defense.
A major reason why is that KAT can handle any of Harris or Duren or Reed on the interior, but Josh Hart was initiating more offense. The Pistons had been putting Duren on Hart. However, this brought Duren out of the paint a bit.
This is an exploitable matchup, and KAT has exceeded this mark in 4 of his last 5 matchups against Detroit. I’d expect extended minutes here, as the Knicks try to take a commanding 3-1 series lead.
Pick: Karl-Anthony Towns Over 21.5 Points (-125)
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[anchor name=”3″][/anchor]
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Knicks vs. Pistons”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Under 217 (-110)” league=”nba” awaylogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/07/new-york-knicks-updated-logo-2023.png” awayname=”New York Knicks” awayslug=”new-york-knicks” homelogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/343538_pistons.png” homename=”Detroit Pistons” homeslug=”detroit-pistons” date=”Sunday, April 27″ time=”1 p.m. ET” network=”ABC” bookname=”Fanatics Sportsbook” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/542724_Fanatics-banner-logo.png” bookreviewslug=”fanatics-sportsbook”][/gameheader]
There are three main reasons to see Knicks-Pistons Game 4 as an Under spot.
First, the line opened at 219.5 and is down to 217 as the consensus, meaning its been an Under market since the open.
Second, it is a day game with a 1 p.m. local start time, a classic NBA Under trend is to back day game Unders because the different pregame routine of all the players.
Lastly, it is now the 4th game of the series and these teams know each other at the highest level, which is a defensive boost.
Jalen Duren will play a free safety type of role and hang off of Josh Hart, which should lead to slower offensive sets using Hart as a playmaker, which will slow down the pace and total number of possessions.
Pick: Under 217 (-110)
[anchor name=”2″][/anchor]
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Lakers vs. Timberwolves”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Rudy Gobert Under 7.5 Points (-115)” league=”nba” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nba/100/lal.png” awayname=”Los Angeles Lakers” awayslug=”los-angeles-lakers” homelogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/nba-updated-logo-minnesota-timberwolves.png” homename=”Minnesota Timberwolves” homeslug=”minnesota-timberwolves” date=”Sunday, April 27″ time=”3:30 p.m. ET” network=”ABC” bookname=”BetMGM” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/779359_BetMGM800x200@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”betmgm”][/gameheader]
We hit Rudy Gobert Under 20.5 PRA in Game 3. That number has fallen to 16.5 for Game 4. I’m pivoting to his points prop. Gobert did not record a shot attempt on Friday. He was fouled twice, so he did shoot 4 free throws (and only made 1). He’s now taken just 7 shots this series.
Gobert isn’t some high-volume offensive player, but he did average 7.1 shots per game in the regular season. His touches and opportunities have just completely dried up. Gobert averaged 43.3 touches per game in the regular season. He’s down to 21 per game in the playoffs, and has averaged just 6.3 front court touches per game this postseason. They don’t have any interest in passing to him.
Playing time is also a problem. Gobert is averaging 26 MPG across the 3 games. He hasn’t reached 30 minutes yet. Foul trouble for Naz Reid helped Gobert reach 29 minutes in Game 2, but he was back to mid-20s on Friday.
Gobert will need to stumble into more playing time or clean up on the offensive glass to make a scoring impact in Game 4 today.
Pick: Rudy Gobert Under 7.5 Points (-115)
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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Celtics vs. Magic”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Anthony Black Under 1.5 Assists (-115)” league=”nba” awaylogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/07/boston-celtics-logo-updated-2023.png” awayname=”Boston Celtics” awayslug=”boston-celtics” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nba/100/orl.png” homename=”Orlando Magic” homeslug=”orlando-magic” date=”Sunday, April 27″ time=”7 p.m. ET” network=”TNT” bookname=”bet365″ bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/859377_Bet365@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”bet365″][/gameheader]
Anthony Black did a decent job as a distributor in the regular season, averaging 3.1 assists, 6.3 potential assists, and 37 passes per game. He played 24.2 MPG prior to the playoffs.
The postseason has brought a different role for Black. He’s come off the bench and provided a scoring punch, particularly in the competitive games. Black has averaged 10 PPG and 8 field goal attempts across Games 2 and 3. Those are better than his regular season marks, and he’s done it in just 18 MPG.
The focus on scoring has completely eliminated Black’s playmaking opportunities. He has exactly 0 assists on 3 potential assists in the series. Black has averaged just 22.3 passes per game. He’s only averaging 16.7 MPG in the playoffs, so his passing numbers were bound to come down, but he’s done literally nothing as a distributor.
Boston allowed the 3rd-fewest assists and the 2nd-lowest assisted field goal rate in the regular season. They’ve held Orlando to just 17 assists per game. The Magic have put up an ugly 43.5% shooting percentage while averaging 93.7 PPG.
Pick: Anthony Black Under 1.5 Assists (-115)
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