There are five games on the NBA docket for Monday in which the The Action Network’s model disagrees with the market.
Our model is player-level, so it factors in all injuries and COVID-related absences across the league that have made handicapping NBA games so tricky in the last few weeks.
Here are the five underdogs our model likes on Monday.
NBA Monday Model Projection Edges
Odds and betting data last updated at 12 p.m. ET on Monday.
Houston Rockets vs. Charlotte Hornets
7 p.m. ET
The Action Network’s models indicate that the Rockets should be 4.5-point underdogs for this matchup.
Meanwhile, the Rockets are +7 and even +7.5 at some sportsbooks. That means there’s a roughly 5% edge here.
The Hornets will be missing Miles Bridges, PJ Washington and Cody Martin after each were placed on the COVID-19 health and protocol list.
The Rockets have Jalen Green and Kevin Porter Jr. listed as questionable.
Model Projection Pick: Rockets +7 (FanDuel)
Chicago Bulls vs. Atlanta Hawks
7:30 p.m. ET
Our models indicate that the Hawks should be roughly 3.2-point underdogs for this matchup.
But, the market is pricing this as high as Hawks +6 at books like DraftKings and FanDuel. That’s a roughly 6% betting edge.
Keep in mind that leading scorer Trae Young and Kevin Huerter are still on the COVID-19 protocol list for Atlanta and that John Collins was placed on the list on Sunday.
Model Projection Pick: Hawks +6 (FanDuel, DraftKings)
Boston Celtics vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
8 p.m. ET
We’ve seen some interesting movement on this one.
The market was pricing this contest closer to +9 on Monday morning, and our models had the T’Wolves at +5.5, creating a nice edge on Minnesota.
But the line moved to around +6 on Monday morning, shortly after it was announced that Celtics star Jayson Tatum has been placed into the COVID-19 health protocols list.
Our projected line then dropped to Minnesota +3.3 with Tatum out for Boston, which means there’s still a 5.5% edge.
D’Angelo Russell, Karl-Anthony Towns and Anthony Edwards are all also on the protocol list for the Timberwolves.
Fox Bet still had a +6 out there as of noon ET, but the rest of the market moved to +5.5.
Model Projection Pick: T’Wolves +5.5
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Phoenix Suns
9 p.m. ET
The Action Network’s models say the Grizzlies should be about 6.1-point underdogs against the Suns.
You can get Memphis at +8.5 at FanDuel and BetMGM. That’s a roughly 5% edge.
Keep in mind that Dillon Brooks is on the health protocol list for Memphis.
Model Projection Pick: Grizzlies +8.5 (FanDuel, BetMGM)
Dallas Mavericks vs. Portland Trail Blazers
10 p.m. ET
This one is a tricky one. The Trail Blazers have seven players in COVID-19 health protocols and Damian Lillard is questionable for this contest for personal reasons.
Our model projections have Lillard playing and project the Trail Blazers as 5-point favorites, especially with Luka Doncic out for the Mavericks.
But, if Lillard is forced to miss this game, that completely changes the calculus.
The current market price as of Monday morning is the Blazers +1 after an open at -3. But keep your eyes peeled on Lillard’s status. If he’s playing, feel free to snag that price at +1. Without Lillard, this is a stayaway.
Model Projection Pick: Blazers +1 or better only if Damian Lillard plays
_PromoID=[9669, 10491, 11927]