The Sacramento Kings (36-38) and Indiana Pacers (43-31) will meet in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 7:00 p.m. ET at the Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis. The game will broadcast live on NBA League Pass.
The Pacers are 5.5-point favorites over the Kings on the spread (Pacers -5.5), with the over/under set at 234 total points. Indiana is a -220 favorite to win outright, while Sacramento is +180 to pull off the upset.
Let’s get into my Kings vs. Pacers predictions and NBA picks for Monday, March 31.
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Kings vs. Pacers Picks, Prediction
My Pacers vs. Kings best bet is on Keon Ellis Under 14.5 Points, Rebounds, & Assists, with the best odds available at Fanatics. But as always, make sure to shop for the best line using our live NBA odds page.
My Pick: Keon Ellis Under 14.5 Points, Rebounds, & Assists
Kings vs. Pacers Odds
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- Kings vs. Pacers spread: Pacers -5.5
- Kings vs. Pacers over/under: 234 total points
- Kings vs. Pacers moneyline: Kings +180, Pacers -220
- Kings vs. Pacers best bet: Keon Ellis Under 14.5 PRA (-120)
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We cashed this prop easily a few days ago, as Keon Ellis was limited to 1 rebound and 1 assist in 18 minutes. Sacramento got obliterated, so all of the starters played limited minutes. However, Malik Monk played more than Ellis off the bench. Neither guard played the 4th quarter.
The angle for this bet over the weekend was Monk regaining the majority of the point guard minutes after returning from an illness. He didn’t get back to playing 32+ minutes, but no one did in that game. Keegan Murray was the only member of the Kings to reach 30 minutes.
The books seem to be writing off the Orlando game due to the blowout, but there’s a good chance we would’ve seen the Monk/Ellis shift if it was a normal game. I’m expecting Monk to return to his role as the primary point guard, even if it’s off the bench.
Plus, there’s a chance Monk returns to the starting lineup. In 53 games playing fewer than 30 minutes, Ellis has averaged 6.7 points, 2.1 rebounds, and 1.1 assists.
Indiana is a solid matchup, but the majority of Ellis’ production is driven by playing time. I don’t see him getting 30+ minutes here.
Best Bet: Keon Ellis Under 14.5 Points, Rebounds, & Assists (-120)
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By Joe Dellera
The Kings face off against the Pacers tonight, and one player that has continually found success in this matchup is Zach LaVine.
While the Kings have been inconsistent in who scores for them on a nightly basis since the trade deadline, they tend to lean into whomever has the best matchup. LaVine is averaging 21 points per game since joining the Kings, and now with Monk returning to the bench unit, he sees about a 10% bump in his usage without him.
Regardless, he has exceeded this points line in five straight games against the Pacers. He has an exploitable matchup where he had almost been exclusively guarded by Andrew Nembhard, and he’s posted a True Shooting percentage north of 60% in those matchups over the past few seasons. I’d expect that matchup to continue with Nesmith getting more minutes on DeRozan as a slightly bigger player.
This game should be tightly contested and the Pacers present a clear Pace up opportunity with the fifth-fastest Pace in the league. I’ll back LaVine to score on Monday night.
Pick: Zach LaVine Over 20.5 Points (-105)
Same Game Parlay Picks
- Keon Ellis Under 14.5 Points, Rebounds, & Assists
- Zach LaVine Over 20.5 Points
Parlay Payout: +240
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Pacers vs. Kings Betting Trends
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