An incredible seven Friday night NBA games fit a betting algorithm with data tracing back to 2005.
This pick has returned a 12% on investment for the last 17 years. The specific parameters of this algorithm only apply to roughly 45 NBA games per year — including these seven contests.
- Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Boston Celtics (7:30 p.m. ET)
- Utah Jazz vs. Denver Nuggets (9 p.m. ET)
- New Orleans Pelicans vs. Phoenix Suns (10 p.m. ET)
- Los Angeles Lakers vs. Minnesota Timberwolves (8 p.m. ET)
- Houston Rockets vs. Portland Trail Blazers (10 p.m. ET)
- New York Knicks vs. Milwaukee Bucks (8 p.m. ET)
- Indiana Pacers vs. Washington Wizards (7 p.m. ET)
If you had bet $100 on each game that has fit the betting trend since 2005, you’d be up about $10,000. That’s roughly $600 per year.
And this is across a substantial sample size: 800 or so games over the past 17 seasons.
We don’t recommend using this betting algorithm as an alternative to investing — variance is a much sturdier constraint in sports gambling compared to the financial markets — but similar principles apply in regard to gains over a long time horizon.
For instance, this system has a 12% annual return on investment. The S&P 500 — the approximate value of the American stock market — has risen an average of 8% over that same timeframe.
12% ROI Moneyline Pick
The betting algorithm at play targets road underdogs early in the season, where “early in the season” constitutes the first 10 games of the away team’s year.
The opposing home team also needs to have a winning record.
Since 2005, road underdogs that play opponents under these parameters win only 31% of the time on the moneyline. But, because they’re underdogs and bets on their moneyline return more value, bettors have returned 12% on investment since 2005.
For Friday night, each of the road clubs and their moneylines are the way to go.
Here are the best lines as of Friday afternoon.
- Cavs +213 (PlayUp)
- Lakers +245 (BetRivers)
- Pacers +190 (SuperBook)
- Knicks +207 (PlayUp)
- Jazz +295 (BallyBet)
- Rockets +160 (SuperBook)
- Pelicans +240 (SuperBook)
Do keep in mind that this historically profitable algorithm applies to about 50 NBA games per year. This might be an opportunity to cash in, but keep in mind that this is a long-term investment.
The best way to make money through this algorithm is to bet on every game that fits these parameters for the rest of the year.
You’ll lose 69% of bets along the way, on average. But again, you’re expected roughly 12 cents in return for every $1 wagered.