The Golden State Warriors (6-1) visit the Boston Celtics (7-1) on Wednesday, tipping off at 7:30 p.m. from the TD Garden in Boston. The game will be broadcast on ESPN.
The Celtics are 7.5-point favorites over the Warriors on the spread (Celtics -7.5), with the over/under currently at 229.5 points. The Celtics are -285 favorites on the moneyline to win outright, while the Warriors are +232 to pull off the upset.
Let’s dive into my Warriors vs. Celtics predictions and NBA picks for Wednesday, November 6.
Warriors vs. Celtics Prediction and Pick
Moneyline
I’m going to pass on betting the Warriors vs. Celtics moneyline.
Spread
At +7.5, I’m going to bet the Warriors against the spread.
Over/Under
The Warriors vs. Celtics over/under is set at 229.5 points.
Pick: Warriors +7.5, Stephen Curry Over 22.5 points
My Warriors vs. Celtics best bet is for the Warriors to cover the +7.5 and for Curry to score Over 22.5 points. The best line is available at DraftKings, but make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NBA odds page.
Warriors vs. Celtics Odds
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- Warriors vs. Celtics Odds: Celtics -7.5
- Warriors vs. Celtics Over/Under: 229.5
- Warriors vs. Celtics Moneyline: Warriors +232, Celtivs -285
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Both the Celtics and the Warriors are off to hot starts this season and both have had to navigate health issues. The Warriors hope to have Brandin Podziemski (illness), but the Celtics will be without Jaylen Brown (hip) for this game.
On the season, the Celtics are +8.0 in Adjusted Net Rating compared to +3.6 for the Warriors, both top-six marks in the league, per Dunks and Threes. It’s notable that the Warriors have maintained their level of success without Steph Curry, who missed three games due to an ankle injury.
This matchup is fascinating because it puts two of the league’s best 3-point shooting teams against each other. Boston averages 19 (1st) makes per game while the Warriors average 16.4 (2nd). However, Boston edges Golden State in terms of volume, taking 50.9 attempts from 3 compared to the Warriors’ 42.0, per Team Rankings.
These teams will be fighting to keep the other off of the 3-point line. The Warriors have been better at defending it this season, allowing opponents to take 3s just 37% of the time compared to the Celtics’ 38.5%.
This may be tough for Boston because the Celtics allow above-the-break 3s at one of the highest frequencies in the league (30.7%), per Dunks and Threes. Not only are the Warriors preventing those looks, they are also defending them at the best percentage in the NBA. The Warriors hold their opponents to 28.1% shooting from beyond the arc (1st), while Boston is still elite (34.1%), but trails Golden State (6th), per Cleaning the Glass.
These teams are almost perfectly designed to defend each other, with neither playing at a particularly fast pace. This aligns well with the under (229.5). On the season, the Warriors are 3-4 to the under, while the Celtics are 5-3.
This is an interesting matchup for a few players, but Curry is the key player to watch. He was on a 24-minute minutes restriction in his return on Monday, but said his ankle seemed fine during those minutes and coach Steve Kerr said, “assuming he feels good tomorrow, I don’t anticipate a big minutes restriction in Boston.”
I’m not certain that means he’ll play his 34-minute regular season average from last season, but there’s reason to think he’ll get extended run. The concern is that he has yet to play even 30 minutes in a game this season.
However, he has played just 5.1 fourth-quarter minutes this season with the first two games being Warriors’ blowout victories and the third being the game he got hurt. Then, the most recent game against the Wizards was directly in line with his ramp up process. Curry has been incredible against Boston, averaging 26.5 points per game and exceeding this line in eight of his past 10 head-to-head contests.
I like Curry to exceed 22.5 points in this spot.
Warriors vs. Celtics Prediction
This game sets up as a Warriors spot for me. I have this as Warriors +5.6 and the total at 227.8, so I’m seeing value on both the side and the total — along with the Curry prop.
There’s some correlation between the Warriors as a ‘dog and the under. There’s also some correlation between the Warriors and Curry’s points over, and negative correlation between the Curry prop and the under. If you put all into a same-game parlay you get +575 odds at DraftKings and Bet365.
Pick: Warriors +7.5, Curry Over 22.5 Points
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Warriors vs. Celtics Starting Lineups
Warriors Starting Lineup
PG: Stephen Curry
SG: Gary Payton II
SF: Andrew Wiggins
PF: Draymond Green
C: Trayce Jackson-Davis
Celtics Starting Lineup
PG: Derrick White
SG: Jrue Holiday
SF: Jayson Tatum
PF: Al Horford
C: Neemias Queta
Warriors vs. Celtics Viewing Info: Channel, Start Time, Streaming
| Location: | TD Garden in Boston |
| Date: | Wednesday, November 6 |
| Time: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming Options: | ESPN |
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