The NBA Finals has been all Celtics to this point with Boston eyeing a sweep in Game 4 on Friday night.
Live NBA odds do expect a competitive game tonight, with the spread ranging anywhere from Mavericks -1 to Celtics -1.5.
It’s no secret that tonight’s spread will drive the largest handle when it comes to specific bet types, but when it comes to value itself, don’t forget to scan the plethora of Celtics vs. Mavericks player prop picks as well.
The Action Network’s NBA PRO player prop projections has done just that — and will continue to do so in real-time until tonight’s game is officially underway — and three player prop picks have separated themselves as the biggest edges for Celtics vs. Mavericks Game 4.
Let’s see where the data is taking us.
Celtics vs. Mavericks Player Prop Picks
*Odds as of Friday morning
Luke Doncic Over/Under 1.5 Steals
Our player prop model projects Doncic at 0.93 steals tonight — which, when compared to the current over/under of 1.5 steals results in a 24.9% edge considering the vig of -105.
Pick: Under 1.5 (-105) Steals — BetMGM
Payton Pritchard Over/Under 3.5 Points
Pritchard isn’t exactly someone that casual bettors will run to the window to bet, but that’s exactly why his player prop over/unders may be a bit softer than those of the superstar players.
For example, his over/under for points tonight sits at just 3.5, yet we have Pritchard scoring 4.9 points.
And not only does our model project his raw points to clear 3.5, but bettors can lock in a 24.4% edge with the current +110 vig.
Pick: Over 3.5 (+110) Points — FanDuel
Jaylen Brown Over/Under 4.5 Assists
For our third and final player prop pick, we’re going right back to the star players with Brown’s assists over/under.
DraftKings is offering under 4.5 assists at -125, which translates to a 24.3% edge when comparing to our projection of 3.1 assists.
Pick: Under 4.5 (-125) Assists — DraftKings
_InlineAdBlock