Bryce Mitchell vs. Dan Ige Odds
The UFC Vegas 79 co-main event in Las Vegas on Saturday features a showdown between ranked featherweights Bryce Mitchell and Dan Ige.
Ige is riding the momentum of a two-fight winning streak after enduring a tough three-fight skid against some of the division’s best.
Mitchell, on the other hand, is coming off the first professional loss of his career, which came to the weight class’s next title challenger, Ilia Topuria.
Between Mitchell claiming to be ill in his last outing to the fact that he holds a higher ranking spot than Ige, the native of Arkansas will likely have a lot to prove as he attempts to hold the proverbial door on the Hawaiian.
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Tale of the Tape
| Mitchell | Ige | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 15-2 | 17-6 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 12:30 | 13:00 |
| Height | 5’10” | 5’7″ |
| Weight | 146 pounds | 146 pounds |
| Reach | 70 inches | 71 inches |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 10/4/1994 | 8/6/1991 |
| Sig Strikes Per Minute | 2.48 | 3.96 |
| SS Accuracy | 59% | 45% |
| SS Absorbed Per Minute | 1.71 | 3.69 |
| SS Defense | 57% | 57% |
| Take Down Average | 3.26 | 1.15 |
| TD Acc | 44% | 26% |
| TD Def | 33% | 56% |
| Submission Average | 1.7 | 0.3 |
Despite both men being well-rounded martial artists, Bryce Mitchell vs. Dan Ige, tactically, will likely be contested with a striker-vs.-grappler dynamic in mind.
Mitchell, who is the more known grappling product, clearly makes his money on the mat.
Whether he’s putting people into his preferred washing machine of transitions or using top control to try to secure rounds, Mitchell can be a frustrating problem on the mat if you’re not prepared for the kind of fight he can bring.
Mitchell’s striking (and even his wrestling) aren’t the strongest standalone products.
That said, the 28-year-old does well at playing one threat off the other, which elevates his game as a whole.
Only the 2nd Twister submission in UFC history🤯@ThugNastyMMA brings his ground game to the #UFCVegas79 co-main event! pic.twitter.com/sKMQRkFgu0
— UFC (@ufc) September 21, 2023
Though Mitchell’s striking may often be a means to an end, he does a decent job of keeping his opponents guessing through a mixture of stance switches and straight punches that play off of his looming, level-changing threats.
Still, I’m not sure how much success he’ll have grappling a fighter like Ige.
Any fight can be put to an end QUICKLY when @Dynamitedan808 is in the Octagon 🤯#UFCVegas79 | Live on ESPN+ 📺 pic.twitter.com/9Bfs2EAuUk
— UFC (@ufc) September 19, 2023
Aside from wrestling at a collegiate level in Iowa, Ige also holds a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu.
Despite being taken down in previous dogfights during his UFC tenure, Ige has made quiet improvements to his takedown defense and positional awareness as a whole.
Utilizing the “Nicksick striking system,” Ige’s disciplined footwork and distance management – in conjunction with his feints – have made takedown threats much easier to sniff out for the stout Hawaiian.
After multiple camps wrestling with Khabib Nurmagomedov and company to prepare for threats like Mosvar Evloev, Ige has also displayed better wrestling and decision-making, in general.
If Ige is able to keep this fight standing, then his noted striking improvements in the countering and bodywork department should earn him a significant edge in exchanges opposite Mitchell’s porous defense.
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Mitchell vs. Ige Pick
Despite the oddsmakers setting the line at a near pick’em, public money has come in on the Arkansas native, listing Mitchell -205 and Ige +170 as of this writing.
But before getting into any picks and plays, I first have to state my admitted bias toward Ige and his team at Xtreme Couture given my training relationships.
That said, outside of the smaller octagon favoring Mitchell from a stylistic perspective, I genuinely have a difficult time justifying the line moving this far against the Hawaiian.
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Don’t get me wrong: If Ige is not able to significantly hurt Mitchell or knock him out in the first half of the contest, then we’re likely in for a 15-minute dogfight that sees Mitchell securing at least one round via the activity of his positional grappling.
Nevertheless, I still believe that Ige’s counter-grappling and scrambling are good enough to stay alive and score the more impactful offense (at least according to the actual scoring criteria) down the stretch.
And if this does end up being a tight fight like the analysis and original odds suggest, then I’d rather be holding an underdog ticket in my hand.
Admitted bias aside, the value is clearly on Ige from a betting perspective as it’s a classic ‘dog-or-pass situation here.
The Pick: Dan Ige (+170 at Caesars)
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