Jose Aldo vs. Mario Bautista Odds
| Aldo Odds | +114 |
| Bautista Odds | -135 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-315 / +230) |
| Location | Delta Center in Salt Lake City, Utah |
| Fight Time | 11 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ PPV |
| UFC 307 odds as of Saturday evening and via FanDuel. Bet on the UFC with our FanDuel promo code. | |
Check out the Jose Aldo vs. Mario Bautista odds for UFC 307 on Saturday, October 5 with my expert UFC pick and prediction.
The UFC 307 main card features a bout between the No. 10 ranked UFC bantamweight contender Jose Aldo and No. 11 Mario Bautista. The “King of Rio” looks to build upon his legacy while Bautista searches for his seventh straight UFC victory.
The steam is slightly on Aldo in this matchup; he opened at +132 on the moneyline and is now listed at +118 at FanDuel at the time of this writing.
I believe this steam is mostly a product of Aldo’s popularity, and here is how I will be buying low on the favorite with a prop bet in my Aldo vs. Bautista preview for UFC 307.
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Tony Sartori’s Tale of the Tape
| Aldo | Bautista | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 32-8 | 14-2 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 14:14 | 8:40 |
| Height | 5’7″ | 5’9″ |
| Weight (pounds) | 135 lbs. | 135 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 70″ | 69″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Switch |
| Date of birth | 9/9/1986 | 7/1/1993 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.6 | 5.7 |
| SS Accuracy | 46% | 48% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.73 | 3.99 |
| SS Defense | 60% | 53% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.51 | 2.25 |
| TD Acc | 53% | 44% |
| TD Def | 91% | 66% |
| Submission Avg | 0.1 | 1.0 |
Aldo is one of the best MMA fighters in history, and he’s still got his stuff. With that said, Father Time is undefeated, and I think it will eventually catch up to Rio’s king, as he’s done to almost every great before him.
Aldo is still turning back quality fighters. He just beat Jonathan Martinez and has lost only to current champion Merab Dvalishvili over the past three years.
However, Bautista is a step above Martinez, and with time running out on Aldo’s card, this feels like a transitional fight in MMA history.
Will Bautista be a future champion? It’s certainly possible, but he possesses the skill set to pair with more development to continue to make noise at 135 pounds. He’s won six straight fights, three of which came by decision victory.
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Aldo vs. Bautista Pick & Prediction
A decision victory is how we will turn Bautista’s -150 moneyline into a +145 payout. There are a few reasons why I love this bet if you want to be on Bautista’s side.
First, Aldo isn’t getting knocked out. Petr Yan, Max Holloway and Conor McGregor are the only three guys in UFC history to put Aldo down, and Bautista doesn’t bring in that type of power.
What Bautista does bring is a slick submission game, but, another credit to Aldo: The guy is virtually impossible to take down. Aldo stuffed all 16 (!) of Merab’s takedown attempts in their bout, but Dvalishvili would still go on to take all three scorecards in a unanimous decision.
Bautista can do the same, considering he lands more significant strikes per minute at higher accuracy at this stage of their careers. A final reason to like Bautista by decision is the fact that this card is taking place at elevation in Utah, which gives the fighter who is younger by seven years another advantage.
Is Aldo a live ‘dog? Absolutely, which is why I don’t like Bautista on the moneyline. However, if you are giving me Bautista to win by decision at +145, I’m simply going to take the value in that number as that is his most logical path to victory by a relatively wide margin.
The Pick: Mario Bautista by decision (+145 at FanDuel) | Play to +140
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