Sam Patterson vs. Kiefer Crosbie Odds
| Patterson Odds | -500 |
| Crosbie Odds | +360 |
| Over/Under | 1.5 (+150 / -205) |
| Location | Co-op Live in Manchester, England |
| Time | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ |
| UFC 304 odds as of Saturday and via BetRivers. Bet on the UFC with our BetRivers promo code! | |
Check out the latest Sam Patterson vs. Kiefer Crosbie odds for UFC 304 on Saturday, July 27, with our expert pick and prediction.
Saturday’s UFC 304 early prelims feature unranked welterweights Sam Patterson and Kiefer Crosbie.
The steam is heavily on Patterson in this matchup; he opened with -275 odds on the moneyline and is now listed at -400 at BetWay at the time of this writing.
I agree with the steam, and here is how I will be backing the favorite with a prop bet in my Patterson vs. Crosbie preview for UFC 304.
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Tale of the Tape
| Patterson | Crosbie | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 11-2-1 | 10-4 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 4:12 | 4:49 |
| Height | 6’3″ | 5’11” |
| Weight (pounds) | 170 lbs. | 170 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 78″ | 70″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Switch |
| Date of birth | 4/30/1996 | 4/5/1990 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 2.54 | 8.10 |
| SS Accuracy | 38% | 66% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.41 | 6.02 |
| SS Defense | 49% | 50% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.19 | 0.0 |
| TD Acc | 100% | 0% |
| TD Def | 33% | 0% |
| Submission Avg | 3.6 | 0.0 |
I would argue that this fight is the biggest mismatch on the entire UFC 304 card.
Crosbie possesses a mere 10-4 professional record and got submitted in the first round of his UFC debut this past September.
Crosbie has now lost three of his past five fights with all three of those losses coming in the first round.
Meanwhile, Sam Patterson is a well-rounded mixed martial artist who is 10-1-1 over his past 12 fights. Four of those 10 wins came in the first round with two submissions and two knockouts.
Crosbie’s better both on the ground and on the feet than Crosbie, who likely possesses only a puncher’s chance in this fight.
Patterson vs. Crosbie Pick
I’m not confident in how Patterson will win, but I am confident that he will do so quickly. Patterson possesses both knockout power and a grappling game that can secure a quick submission.
I project Patterson to win by submission, which is how Crosbie lost each of his past two fights. Both submissions occurred in the first round.
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However, I also wouldn’t be shocked if Patterson secured a rapid victory on the mat via ground and pound, which is why I think the best bet to make on the heavy favorite is to back him to win in Round 1 with +123 odds at BetRivers.
Oddsmakers are also expecting a quick finish, given that the “fight won’t start Round 2” prop is listed at -132. When you also factor in that Crosbie is the inferior fighter in this matchup in pretty much every aspect of MMA, Patterson should have a walk-in-the-park opportunity in front of the home crowd.
At +123, that is a bet I would much rather take than laying four dollars on Patterson’s moneyline.
The Pick: Sam Patterson in Round 1 (+123 at BetRivers) | Play to +105
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