Michelle Waterson-Gomez vs. Gillian Robertson Odds
Here’s everything you need to know about the Michelle Waterson-Gomez vs. Gillian Robertson odds for UFC 303 on Saturday, June 29 – our expert UFC prediction and pick.
This is a crossroads bout for at least one person.
On a stacked UFC 303 card, we have submission artist Gillian Robertson (13-8, 9 SUBs, 2 KOs) in the last bout of the early ESPN preliminary card, taking on former contender Michelle Waterson-Gomez (18-12, 9 SUBs, 3 KOs) in a strawweight bout.
Waterson-Gomez needs this one, but she’s the underdog against Robertson, who has momentum coming into this bout and now has the opportunity to add the biggest name to her resume.
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Tale of the Tape
| Waterson-Gomez | Robertson | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 18-12 | 13-8 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 13:53 | 9:39 |
| Height | 5’3″ | 5’5″ |
| Weight (pounds) | 115 lbs. | 116 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 62″ | 63″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 1/6/1986 | 5/17/1995 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.6 | 2.6 |
| SS Accuracy | 46% | 46% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 4.2 | 3.1 |
| SS Defense | 49% | 56% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.42 | 2.53 |
| TD Acc | 32% | 43% |
| TD Def | 70% | 43% |
| Submission Avg | 0.7 | 1.0 |
Robertson is coming off a Performance of the Night showing against Polyana Viana. Robertson scored a second-round knockout in the January 2024 bout.
It marked her third win in four fights and her fourth in six.
Of Robertson’s eight losses, six were by decision, the one knockout to Maycee Barber in 2019, and the submission to Mayra Bueno Silva one year prior.
The Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt – awarded by Din Thomas – has the physical advantages here, being just 29 years old to Waterson-Gomez’s 38. With a 5-foot-5 frame and 63-inch reach, she also has physical edges on Waterson-Gomez, who is 5-foot-3 with a 62-inch reach.
Waterson-Gomez is on a four-fight slide, and really, it should probably be seven fights.
MAJOR pressure from Marina Rodriguez for the stoppage 💪 #UFCVegas79 pic.twitter.com/vYaYZYATGS
— ESPN MMA (@espnmma) September 24, 2023
Waterson-Gomez hasn’t won a fight since her split decision victory over Angela Hill in September 2020, in which Hill outlanded “The Karate Hottie” with 131 significant strikes to 128 and also landed 50% to 39% of her attempts. Waterson had the fight’s only takedown, but she went 1-for-18 on attempts.
Waterson-Gomez, it can be argued convincingly, hasn’t truly won a fight since outpointing Karolina Kowalkiewicz in March 2019. She’s also coming off her second knockout loss. Marina Rodriguez stopped her this past September (see video above).
Waterson-Gomez vs. Robertson Pick
All that being said, you tell me: How does Waterson-Gomez win this fight?
Robertson isn’t exactly the worst competitor she’s faced on what should be a seven-bout skid.
Upsets happen, sh-t happens, and MMA happens, but I think Robertson should be a bigger favorite than she is.
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Waterson-Gomez has tapped four times in her career but just once since 2017, and while I think Robertson can win by submission, I’d prefer throwing more on the moneyline and just playing it safe here because we don’t have any recent reasons to believe that Waterson-Gomez has a watershed moment in this particular fight.
We’re going to take Robertson on the moneyline. As of Wednesday morning, the best-available line is -175 at bet365 with Caesars Sportsbook not far behind at -180. Hopefully, we get an even better line before fight night.
Enjoy the fight and don’t go broke.
The Pick: Gillian Robertson (-175 at bet365)
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