Josh Emmett vs. Bryce Mitchell Odds
In the UFC 296 main-card opener on Saturday, Josh Emmett and Bryce Mitchell meet in an intriguing featherweight matchup.
Emmett looks for his first win of 2023 when he meets late replacement Mitchell, who’s fresh off a win over Dan Ige.
Here’s a look at the Emmett vs. Mitchell odds, prediction and betting pick.
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Tale of the Tape
| Emmett | Mitchell | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 18-4 | 16-2 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 13:47 | 12:49 |
| Height | 5’6″ | 5’10” |
| Weight | 146 pounds | 145.5 pounds |
| Reach | 70 inches | 70 inches |
| Stance | Orthodox | Southpaw |
| Date of birth | 3/4/1985 | 10/4/1994 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.1 | 2.3 |
| SS Accuracy | 36% | 58% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 4.66 | 1.64 |
| SS Defense | 61% | 58% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.92 | 3.51 |
| TD Acc | 37% | 41% |
| TD Def | 46% | 33% |
| Submission Avg | 0.1 | 1.6 |
Emmett’s planned fight with Giga Chikadze was scrapped late last week, and “Thug Nasty” Mitchell has stepped in on short notice.
This is a big opportunity for the 16-1 Mitchell against a former (interim) title contender in Emmett. Mitchell looks to build another winning streak following his only career loss late last year.
That defeat came to Ilia Topuria in a bout Mitchell claimed to take at less than 100%. While it’s easy for every fighter to make that claim following losses, Mitchell had a string of canceled fights before that, and he seemed to be in dire need of a paycheck.
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While I’m not saying he beats Topuria even on his best day, he likely looks better than he did in that bout.
Emmett is coming off his own loss to Topuria, in which he was dominated from bell to bell. The 39-year-old’s abilities are fading fast, with a submission loss to Yair Rodriguez in his prior fight.
Emmett is likely the superior striker here, but the diminishing physical skills and grappling weaknesses should make that a nonfactor.
With that said, I don’t love the price on Mitchell in a short-notice bout. Emmett has always had excellent cardio, and he fought three consecutive five-round fights before this one.
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Emmett vs. Mitchell Pick
Mitchell probably needs to finish this fight before Emmett starts to take over late.
Fortunately, we can get Mitchell to win inside the distance at +275 on DraftKings. I prefer that to his submission odds at +350 given the relatively close lines, but there’s a case to be made for taking the bigger swing.
If Mitchell sells out for a stoppage early and doesn’t get one, I’ll be looking to hedge with a live bet on Emmett after a round or so.
The Picks: Bryce Mitchell to Win by Submission/KO +275 (DraftKings) | Josh Emmett Live
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