Steve Erceg vs. Alessandro Costa Odds
An intriguing flyweight clash closes out the UFC 295 preliminary card with Steve Erceg vs. Alessandro Costa.
The two rising 125-pounders look to build off recent wins when they clash in the featured UFCNews-televised bout on Saturday.
Here’s a look at the odds and my UFC 295 prediction for Erceg vs. Costa.
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Tale of the Tape
| Erceg | Costa | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 10-1 | 13-3 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 15:00 | 11:05 |
| Height | 5’8″ | 5’4″ |
| Weight | 125.6 pounds | 125.4 pounds |
| Reach (inches) | 68″ | 67″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 7/27/1995 | 1/28/1996 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.6 | 3.8 |
| SS Accuracy | 38% | 43% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.5 | 3.0 |
| SS Defense | 53% | 63% |
| Take Down Avg | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| TD Acc | 75% | 0% |
| TD Def | 66% | 91% |
| Submission Avg | 1.0 | 0.0 |
Erceg impressed as a short-notice underdog in his UFC debut in June, upsetting then-ranked David Dvorak (closed as high as +245) in place of Matt Schnell.
He’ll draw Costa on short notice – also in place of Schnell – on Saturday in the featured UFC 295 prelim.
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The short-notice nature could pose a cardio issue for Costa, who lost his UFC debut in the third round on short notice against Amir Albazi.
Costa is also the smaller and less durable fighter.
Erceg vs. Costa Pick
Based upon that dynamic, I’d look to bet Erceg live after Round 1 – and potentially bet him to win in Round 2 (+700) or Round 3 (+1100) against an opponent who might tire in the later rounds.
Erceg and the Over 1.5 Rounds (+105 in a same-game parlay), or Erceg to win in Round 3 or by Decision (+125), are other viable ways to bet into that win condition.
The Picks:
- Steve Erceg Wins in Round 2 (+700, 0.1u) at DraftKings
- Steve Erceg Wins in Round 3 (+1100, 0.1u) at DraftKings
- Steve Erceg Live after Round 1
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