Victoria Dudakova vs Jinh Yu Frey Odds
UFC 294 offers a number of young upstarts a chance to steal some shine from their veteran counterparts, and that’s what we’re getting with Viktoria Dudakova vs Jinh Yu Frey on the preliminary card.
Dudakova, fresh off an injury-enabled 34-second win on Contender Series, is a major favorite over fellow strawweight Frey, who’s stuck in a three-fight skid.
Are those long odds justified? Let’s look at Dudakova vs Frey at UFC 294.
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Tale of the Tape
| Dudakova | Frey | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 7-0 | 11-9 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 7:47 | 12:36 |
| Height | 5’5″ | 5’3″ |
| Weight | 116.6 pounds | 116 pounds |
| Reach | 67 inches | 65 inches |
| Stance | Orthodox | Southpaw |
| Date of birth | 1/26/1999 | 5/20/1985 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 1.41 | 2.95 |
| SS Accuracy | 59% | 42% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 1.80 | 4.11 |
| SS Defense | 42% | 52% |
| Take Down Avg | 4.82 | 1.02 |
| TD Acc | 55% | 37% |
| TD Def | 0% | 89% |
| Submission Avg | 0.0 | 0.3 |
The only women’s bout on Saturday’s card features one of the most significant age discrepancies (14 years) that I have seen between UFC opponents.
As I regularly discuss, when UFC opponents have at least a seven-year age gap, the betting market tends to undervalue the younger fighter by more than 10%, winning at a 67.4% clip compared to average odds of -119, or 54.4% implied.
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And when there is at least a decade in age between UFC opponents, the younger fighter has won 72.2% of the time, at average odds of -143 (58.8% implied)
In addition to being younger, faster, and a better athlete, Victoria Dudakova is taller and longer (a two-inch advantage in both height and reach) than Jinh Yu Frey, who is more of a natural atomweight.
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Dudakova vs Frey Pick
Frey can win the fight by denying takedown attempts and landing clean counters with her powerful left hand.
Still, Dudakova should overwhelm Frey with physicality, and I expect her to add a highlight to her reel in a fight in which she is the apparent “A side.”
You can include Dudakova in parlays (up to -550) but also bet her to win inside the distance or by finish (projected +133, listed +150 at DraftKings).
The Picks:
- Victoria Dudakova wins Inside the Distance (+150, 0.25u) at DraftKings
- Parlay (+138, 0.5u) at FanDuel: Victoria Dudakova (-520) & Sedriques Dumas (-250) & Henry/Basharat, Fight Goes to Decision (-235)
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