Kamaru Usman vs Khamzat Chimaev Odds
The UFC 294 co-headliner in Abu Dhabi on Saturday afternoon features an impromptu battle at middleweight between Khamzat Chimaev and Kamaru Usman.
Chimaev, who was initially slated to face Paulo Costa, will instead meet Usman due to “Borrachinha” getting pulled from the event for a nasty staph infection that he sustained in his elbow.
Although Usman has traditionally competed at 170 pounds, the former welterweight champion has long talked about moving up in weight to test himself as he gets older.
Despite 11 days’ notice not exactly being the ideal circumstances for such a move, the potential gains for Usman at 185 pounds are undeniable given that he holds a dominant decision win over the UFC’s current middleweight champion, Sean Strickland.
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Tale of the Tape
| Usman | Chimaev | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 20-3 | 12-0 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 17:35 | 5:01 |
| Height | 6’0″ | 6’2″ |
| Weight | 184.5 pounds | 185.5 pounds |
| Reach | 76 inches | 75 inches |
| Stance | Switch | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 5/11/1987 | 5/1/1994 |
| Sig Strikes Per Minute | 4.46 | 7.30 |
| SS Accuracy | 52% | 59% |
| SS Absorbed Per Minute | 2.75 | 3.98 |
| SS Defense | 54% | 41% |
| Take Down Average | 2.96 | 3.98 |
| TD Acc | 45% | 57% |
| TD Def | 97% | 100% |
| Submission Average | 0.1 | 3.5 |
Even though each party comes from a wrestling base, both men have clearly developed a taste for striking from both stances.
Chimaev is still in the process of developing his game, but the Chechen fighter appears to be comfortable operating from both sides.
Whether Chimaev is pumping out a piston-like jab or lining up a kill shot from the power side, the 29-year-old does a decent job of throwing straight punches when he means to.
When feeling in stride, Chimaev has a nasty uppercut that will likely serve him well given Usman’s history with that punch.
Chimaev also does well at consistently stabbing his opponent’s body with front kicks, which could be extra potent against a short-notice fighter.
That said, Chimaev is far from a defensive savant and will need to respect what’s coming back at him this Saturday.
A former champion at 170 pounds, Usman has had to make some serious striking improvements throughout his career in order to stay afloat at the top of the division.
Usman and Chimaev settle it TOMORROW 😤@Usman84kg vs @KChimaev in our #UFC294 co-main!!
[ Tomorrow at 2pmET / 11amPT on ESPN+ PPV | @InAbuDhabi | #InAbuDhabi | @VisitAbuDhabi ] pic.twitter.com/3kpnbcm9ID
— UFC (@ufc) October 20, 2023
Luckily for Usman, he’s had the assistance of some of MMA’s best striking coaches via Henri Hooft and Trevor Wittman.
Even though they can produce fighters who are stark in contrast, both coaches are big on fundamentals.
And through their teachings, Usman has learned to both pressure and counter competently.
The latter will likely be an asset considering Chimaev’s aggression, but Usman is a legit striking threat if he can keep this standing.
Thankfully for “The Nigerian Nightmare,” Usman boasts a 97% takedown defense rating and is the more credentialed wrestler on paper.
However, not all numbers are equal in this game, so don’t be surprised if Usman gets out-grappled in this spot.
Not only is Chimaev a superior submission threat, but “Borz” is also going to have a serious size and preparation edge over Usman given the short-notice nature of this contest.
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Usman vs Chimaev Pick
The oddsmakers and the public are favoring the younger fighter, listing Chimaev -345 and Usman +275 as of this writing.
If Usman had proper notice to prepare, then I’d probably take a flier on him as an underdog against Chimaev.
For as hyped up as Chimaev is, the Chechen wildman is far from impervious from a defensive standpoint on the feet.
As seen in his war with Gilbert Burns back at UFC 273, a fighter who can competently jab, leg kick and counter can provide problems for Chimaev given his lack of head movement.
That said, I have a hard time seeing Usman string it all together in this sort of scenario.
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Aside from the fact that Usman’s knees appear to be held together by string at this point, there’s no denying the elephant in the room that is the 11-day notice nature of the fight.
Add in the extra travel time and media appearances that Usman will be subjected to (while Chimaev, who has had his entire training camp in Abu Dhabi, is being catered to), and I have a hard time backing the more proven product in this spot.
I already took a flier on Chimaev by first-round knockout (which can currently be found in the neighborhood of +500 if you shop around) due to both Chimaev’s power and Usman’s propensity to eat uppercuts.
I also pulled the trigger on the under 2.5 rounds total at -155, but between that price being hard to find and the current speculation on the condition of Usman’s knees after this week’s open-workout debacle, I suggest looking at Chimaev to win “inside the distance” at a better price tag.
The Pick: Khamzat Chimaev by KO/TKO/DQ or Submission (-115 at DraftKings)
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