Ikram Aliskerov vs Warlley Alves Odds
Saturday’s second bout on the UFC 294 main card features middleweights Ikram Aliskerov vs Warlley Alves.
Aliskerov is the fight card’s biggest favorite. The Contender Series vet now carries a six-fight winning streak into his bout with Alves, who’s a decade-long UFC fighter who moves from welterweight back to his original middleweight division.
Let’s break down Aliskerov vs Alves at UFC 294.
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Tale of the Tape
| Aliskerov | Alves | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 14-1 | 15-6 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 2:10 | 10:09 |
| Height | 6’0″ | 5’11” |
| Weight | 186 pounds | 185.5 pounds |
| Reach | 76 inches | 72 inches |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 12/7/1992 | 1/4/1991 |
| Sig Strikes Per Minute | 6.25 | 3.21 |
| SS Accuracy | 60% | 47% |
| SS Absorbed Per Minute | 7.88 | 4.09 |
| SS Defense | 40% | 51% |
| Take Down Avg | 3.47 | 1.37 |
| TD Acc | 33% | 50% |
| TD Def | 0% | 50% |
| Submission Avg | 3.5 | 0.9 |
Aliskerov, a 30-year-old Russian whose only career loss is a brutal knockout at the hands of Khamzat Chimaev, will fight short-notice replacement Alves.
Alves, a true welterweight, is moving up a division in place of Nassourdine Imavov, and perhaps cutting less weight will help his cardio.
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Alves is typically a problem for opponents in the first round before fading drastically when his opponents turn the tide. Three of his past four losses have come in Round 2.
While Alves typically has strong takedown defense and carries power in his hands, I wonder if those attributes will translate as well with the 15-pound jump from welterweight to middleweight, as it might go from 135 to 145. He’s also at a four-inch reach disadvantage.
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Aliskerov vs Alves Pick
Alves may be the faster man early, but as that gap closes when he tires in the second round, Aliskerov should start to take over and eventually put him away.
As a result, I would wait to bet Aliskerov until live after Round 1; you may get a significantly better number than his pre-fight moneyline.
Additionally, look to bet Aliserov to win in Round 2 (+450) and/or Round 3 (+1100), down to +300 and +900, respectively; the cardio dynamic in almost any Alves fight makes his opponent’s late-round props appealing.
The Picks:
- Ikram Aliskerov wins in Round 2 (+450, 0.15u) at DraftKings
- Ikram Aliskerov wins in Round 3 (+1100, 0.1u) at DraftKings
- Ikram Aliskerov Live after Round 1
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