Nasrat Haqparast vs. Landon Quinones Odds
One of the night’s biggest mismatches – on paper anyway – features Nasrat Haqparast vs. Landon Quinones in a lightweight bout at UFC 293.
Haqparast recently halted a two-fight skid but still has a lot of work to do to reclaim top-prospect status. He’s a big favorite as he now meets Quinones, a cast member from The Ultimate Fighter 31 who steps in on short notice.
Let’s preview Haqparast vs. Quinones at UFC 293.
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Tale of the Tape
| Haqparast | Quinones | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 14-5 | 7-1-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 12:41 | n/a |
| Height | 5’10” | 5’9″ |
| Weight | 155.85 pounds | 155.75 pounds |
| Reach (inches) | 72″ | 70″ |
| Stance | Southpaw | Southpaw |
| Date of birth | 8/22/1995 | 11/21/1995 |
| Sig Strikes Per Minute | 5.06 | 0.00 |
| SS Accuracy | 44% | 0% |
| SS Absorbed Per Minute | 4.72 | 0.00 |
| SS Defense | 65% | 0% |
| Take Down Average | 0.36 | 0.00 |
| TD Acc | 30% | 0% |
| TD Def | 78% | 0% |
| Submission Average | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Quinones, who lost via submission in under a minute on this season of TUF, will make a short-notice debut against Haqparast, who has previously struggled as a substantial favorite.
I often find Haqparast to be overrated relative to the betting market. He lost to Drew Dober as a -350 favorite and failed to separate from a debuting Rafa Garcia at a -500 price tag before dropping clear decisions to Daniel Hooker and Bobby Green as a slight underdog. I laid the juice against Haqparast in both fights.
Recently, Haqparast was out-struck at a distance (72-60) by John Makdessi, a fighter 10 years his senior.
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Haqparast has a powerful left hand but just one finish at the UFC level. He seems slower compared to most lightweights and rarely grapples (1.2 takedown attempts per 15 minutes, 30% accuracy).
Haqparast’s best skills are likely durability and cardio, but while he lands at a good clip, he doesn’t push a particularly hard pace and seemingly fights to the level of his competition from one bout to the next.
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Haqparast vs. Quinones Pick
While Haqparast should look to wrestle Quinones, he isn’t reliable enough to do so, which could lead to a relatively close southpaw vs. southpaw striking fight in which Haqparast never comes close to justifying his steep price tag.
He either needs an early finish – or dominant grappling control – to justify his substantial favoritism in this spot.
I projected Quinones closer to +340 and would poke his moneyline at +370 or better. And we’ll bet the fight to reach a decision up to -126 (projected -137).
The Picks: Landon Quinones (+380, 0.25u at Caesars) | Fight Goes to Decision (-120, 0.25u at FanDuel)
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