Mario Bautista vs. Da’Mon Blackshear Odds
Just one week after a remarkable submission win at UFC Vegas 78, Da’Mon Blackshear makes a quick turnaround for a UFC 292 main card bout with Mario Bautista on Saturday.
Bautista is on a solid 6-1 run in the UFC, and after that success, he was supposed to fight ex-champ Cody Garbrandt at UFC 292 with a chance to add a big name to his resume.
Instead, Blackshear, who’s won two straight fights in the UFC, steps in a very late replacement in an intriguing matchup. The bantamweight’s also got a lot of hype due to last week’s viral win.
Here’s our Bautista vs. Blackshear betting preview.
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Tale of the Tape
| Bautista | Blackshear | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 14-5-1 | 12-2 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 10:40 | 7:05 |
| Height | 5’10” | 5’9″ |
| Weight | 136 pounds | 135.5 pounds |
| Reach | 72 inches | 69 inches |
| Stance | Switch | Switch |
| Date of birth | 8/12/1994 | 7/1/1993 |
| Sig Strikes Per Minute | 3.68 | 5.33 |
| SS Accuracy | 44% | 50% |
| SS Absorbed Per Minute | 3.68 | 3.73 |
| SS Defense | 51% | 54% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.76 | 2.91 |
| TD Acc | 29% | 68% |
| TD Defense | 54% | 62% |
| Submission Avg | 1.1 | 1.3 |
Blackshear one week ago was in Las Vegas and hit the third twister in UFC history.
After that win over Jose Johnson, he will step in on short notice instead of Cody Garbrandt to face the highly talented Mario Bautista.
Blackshear is the bigger man but will have to cut weight for the second time in a week, which could give Bautista a crucial cardio advantage down the stretch against a larger opponent (Blackshear is one-inch taller with a three-inch reach advantage).
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“The Monster” also has a durability edge and hits harder, which makes him an intriguing underdog play.
But Bautista is the faster man, the more technical striker, and likely the better wrestler.
Bautista can also dictate where this fight takes place. He can choose to attempt to keep Blackshear on his back – or counter-wrestle and strike.
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Bautista vs. Blackshear Pick
I expect this fight to reach a decision 53% of the time (-113 implied odds).
I also expect Batusita to win that decision (projected +154, listed +175 at FanDuel) more often than not.
Considering the potential pace of this fight, I would rather bet the over 2.5 rounds at a pick’em price and avoid the potential for a late-fight, cardio-driven stoppage.
The Pick: Over 2.5 rounds (-110, 0.25u at WynnBet)
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